Euro 2016 Betting Preview
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
The European Championships have been expanded to 24 for the 2016 edition, but bookmakers still expect to see the same old names lifting the trophy in Paris on July 8. The rise in the number of teams means that, from four of the six groups, three teams will qualify. While this gives smaller teams a better chance to advance to the knockout stage, it also leaves more margin for error for underachieving big guns. It is unlikely that we will see many significant fallers at the first round.
Three teams head the betting future odds. In order, they are France (3/1), Germany (7/2) and Spain (11/2). All three have their strengths and their weaknesses, but it is Germany who look in best shape to win their first European Championships for 20 years and to follow in Spain’s footsteps by being holders of both this tournament and the World Cup.
Their results since winning the World Cup have been mixed, but history shows that what teams do in qualifying is irrelevant to how they perform at tournaments. A common theme in this tournament is the strength of the big teams’ midfields, and comparative weaknesses in defence at attack. Germany follow this trend. Their midfield is packed with quality: Khedira, Özil, Schürrle, Götze, Kroos. Thomas Müller will play up front, and while he is not an orthodox centre-forward, he is still an outstanding player.
At centre-back Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng form an effective partnership in front of the impregnable Manuel Neuer. It is only at full-back where they could be called weak - and if there is a place to have a weakness, full-back is a good place to have one.
But what Germany have most of all is tournament experience. Their results in tournaments since 2006 read thus: semis, final, semis, semis, winners. German football has undergone a decade of constant improvement, and this may be enough to see them over the line.
France, being at home, cannot be ignored. They have huge strength in depth but, looking at their squad, one cannot help but feel that they could be stronger. Karim Benzema, arguably the best European striker, has not been selected, while Raphael Varane and Lassana Diarra are important absentees through injury. Their defence looks very wobbly: both Laurent Koscielny and Eliaquim Mangala had poor seasons in the Premier League, while full-backs Bacary Sagna and Patrice Evra are well into their thirties.
Again, their strength is in midfield. Paul Pogba, Blaise Matuidi and N’Golo Kanté can match any midfield in the world, while Antoine Griezmann is coming off the back of a career-defining season with Atletico Madrid. Olivier Giroud is no Karim Benzema, but he and Griezmann have formed an effective partnership. However in a match-up with Germany, France would likely come out losers.
Next come Spain, with arguably the deepest pool of high quality players to choose from. A team that was able to leave Diego Costa, Juan Mata, Isco and Saúl Ñíguez out of their squad must be respected. Defensively they look strong, with a likely back four of Azpilicueta, Pique, Ramos and Jordi Alba, but Spain’s problem is more to do with style.
Their three consecutive tournament wins from 2008 to 2012 came at a time when the tiki-taka style of football mastered by Barcelona and Spain conquered all. But since then, teams have constantly found ways to expose it. And while Barcelona, and Pep Guardiola as Bayern Munich manager, have adapted their style, Spain’s way of playing has not progressed.
And then there is the perennial problem of whether to play a striker, and if so, who to play. At present Álvaro Morata looks most likely to play up front, but this is a dilemma that Spain have never quite solved. Their top scorer in qualifying, Pablo Alcácer, did not even make the squad.
So to the rest: and next in the betting are England at 17/2. The positives for England are form: they won all ten qualifiers (admittedly in an easy group) and their three pre-tournament friendlies, as well as winning 3-2 in Germany in march, an exciting group of talented young players, and an easy draw.
However the negatives are too great to ignore: Their three centre-backs (Chris Smalling, Gary Cahill and John Stones) would not even have made the squad ten or 15 years ago, and manager Roy Hodgson still seems unsure of both his first XI and his system. But perhaps the biggest problem is a lack of big players in their prime. To win tournaments you need players from around 26 to 31 who are at the top of their game. Other than Wayne Rooney and Joe Hart, England have few of these. They should go well, but Russia 2018 may be a better chance for an improving team.
Former dark-horses Belgium come next, and while 11/1 is a tempting price about a team packed with quality players, they should be passed over. In Marc Wilmots they have a relatively poor manager - he is playing the Premier League’s best centre-back partnership, Toby Alderweireld Jan Vertonghen, at full-back, for example. They struggle to get the best out of Eden Hazard, though he may be fresher than most having pretty much bypassed the season for Chelsea.
A very interesting bet may be Italy at 16/1. Much has been made of how weak this Italian squad is, and certainly, the midfield and attack look very short on quality. However Italy often go into tournaments unwisely unfancied - this is a team, after all, with four World Cups to their name - and there are reasons to be positive.
Chief among these is the centre-back trio of Andrea Barzagli, Leandro Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. The three Juventus men have been together for years, and are now managed by Antonio Conte, Juve’s former manager who knows exactly how to set them up. Italy are in a section with Belgium, Sweden and the Republic of Ireland, which they should be able to get through fairly easily. And in one-off knockout games the team with the sterner defence often prevails.
The last of the traditional favourites are Portugal at 20/1. Two positives here: by far the easiest group (Austria, Hungary, Iceland) and Cristiano Ronaldo. However they have not come very close to winning a tournament since their golden generation of the early 2000s retired, and with doubts over Ronaldo’s fitness they should be swerved.
Three teams have vied for the tag of ‘dark horses’. First are Croatia, whose midfield of Ivan Periši?, Luka Modri?, Mateo Kova?i? and Ivan Rakiti? can match any at the tournament for talent on the ball. A hard group and a certain lack of tactical flexibility may be their undoing.
Austria are one of the most improved sides in Europe and are 40/1 - an appealing price given their easy group, while Poland at 50/1 is another price that will interest. In Robert Lewandowski they have one of the best strikers at the tournament and the rest of their team is of a reasonable quality, especially Grzegorz Krychowiak and Jakub B?aszczykowski.
The other 14 teams are everywhere from 66/1 down to 500/1, and of these sides it is the team right at the bottom of the market, Albania at 500/1, who appeal.
They are the least known team in this tournament, but their qualification in a group without minnows (they faced Portugal, Denmark, Serbia and an improving Armenia) proved they should not be taken lightly.
In past years the teams who have vastly overachieved have done so thanks to organisation and defensive prowess - look at Leicester City and Atletico Madrid, as well as the 2014 World Cup’s main surprises, Costa Rica. Under veteran Italian coach Gianni De Biasi they will be hard to break down. The draw was kind to them, pitting them against France, Switzerland and Romania. There is little reason for them to be a much bigger price than Romania, Hungary, Northern Ireland and Iceland, and yet unfamiliarity means they are.
Future Betting Predictions
Germany to win at 7/2
Italy to win at 18/1
Albania to win at 500/1
