At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
The undefeated Nyquist is looking to keep his Triple Crown bid alive this afternoon when he is sent off as the betting favorite for the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico. Post time for the race is 6:45 ET and will be broadcast live on NBC.
Post time for the opener is 10:30am ET and the finale on the 14-race marathon card at Pimlico is 7:35 ET. A nine-hour betting extravaganza.
I’m not a big fan of betting chalk, but Nyquist just seems to have too much going for him. Derby winners have fared well in the Preakness, winning 10 of the last 19 and three of the last four, while Derby runner up finishers have fared poorly in Baltimore.
A wet track might favor Exaggerator, who won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in the slop, but the weather forecast could be wrong, and the Pimlico main track does dry out quickly.
Nyquist has just three starts this year, winning the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) followed by the Florida Derby (G1) and the Kentucky Derby. By the way he has looked this week, his tank is still full.
He is 3-5 on the morning line but in early wagering he was hovering between 4-5 and even money. If the rains come, Exaggerator may end up getting extra action and we could be looking at even money or maybe even 6-5.
Still not enough of a price to get the pulse racing, but favorites have done quite well in the Preakness, and 20 of the last 29 winners have been sent off at 7-2 or less.
While we may not get rich betting the Preakness, we have 13 other races on the card and if the weather holds and the races remain on the turf, we have a good betting card to look forward to.
Here is today’s opener from Pimlico to get the day off to a good start:
PIM Race 1 Alw $50,000s (10:30 ET)
#8 Start Jumping 4-1
#6 Double Whammy 7-5
#5 Golden Rings 3-1
#9 Steve Came Thru 15-1
Analysis: Start Jumping dueled for the early lead and could not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish against $8,000 starter allowance foes at Penn, beaten 3/4 of a length for the top spot. Three back this guy went gate to wire at Laurel Park to beat $5,000 starter allowance foes earning a fig good enough to beat this group. He is bred to like a wet track and has a couple of wins on the off going in seven trips. He is in good hands with the McMahon barn and reunited with the bug Luzzi who was aboard for his last two wins.
Double Whammy takes a big class drop after checking in sixth last out against Alw-3 optional claimers. He beat Alw-2 optional claimers two back by seven lengths earning a career top speed fig. He is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track and has a 5-1-1-1 on wet tracks in case the rains come as forecast. He is going to be tough in this spot for the Eppler barn but is going to be a short price.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 5,6,8,9
TRI: 6,8 / 5,6,8,9 / 1,5,6,8,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Pimlico:
PIM Race 13 The Preakness G1 (6:45 ET)
#3 Nyquist 3-5
#7 Collected 10-1
#5 Exaggerator 3-1
#10 Fellowship 30-1
Analysis: Nyquist is perfect in eight career starts and earned a career top Beyer Speed Figure in his Kentucky Derby (G1) win. He comes back in two weeks but let's not forget he has had a light campaign, just the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) before his Kentucky Derby victory. O'Neill has been down this path before with I'll Have Another. The colt should get a perfect trip sitting just off the pace and Derby winners and favorites have been dominant in this race. The chance of a wet track should not pose a problem as he ran well over a wet track at Gulfstream Park and is bred to like a wet track. The lone knock on this guy is his price.
Collected is coming off a sharp win in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland last out. After winning the Sham (G3) earlier this year he went into Oaklawn Park and was sent off as the betting favorite in the Southwest (G3) but came up short in a fourth place finish. He has bounced back with two wins for Baffert who has won the Preakness six times. He has not had success with starters that did not race in the Derby first, but this colt still looks as if he has some upside, has a strong off track pedigree, and will have the jump on Exaggerator heading for home.
Exaggerator made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot in the Derby but has now finished behind Nyquist four times and hard to find a reason he will turn the tables here. He does like an off track as his Santa Anita Derby (G1) win in the slop was one of the most impressive Derby prep races. However, the Pimlico surface dries out fast and the forecast is not always right. He should get some pace to run at but he may end up with too much to do in the final furlong.
Fellowship ran third in the Holy Bull (G2), Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1). His first start for trainer Mark Casse did not go well in a fourth place finish in the Pat Day Mile (G3). He has not run fast enough to win here but could rally for a small piece at a decent price.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4-5 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,5,7,10
TRI: 3,7 / 3,5,7,10 / 3,5,7,10,11
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Pimlico
R1: #9 Steve Came Thru 15-1
R2: #3 Cherub 8-1
R3: #7 Big House 8-1
R4: #1 Rachel Wall 12-1
R4: #8 Pramedya 12-1
R5: #1 All Star Red 12-1
R7: #9 Queequeg 8-1
R7: #5 Gin Makes Ya Sin 15-1
R8: #1 Miss Matzoball 12-1
R8: #10 Joya Real 10-1
R9: #5 Never Gone South 8-1
R11: #1 Lazarus Project 20-1
R12: #4 takeover Target 8-1
R13: #7 Collected 10-1
R13: #10 Fellowship 30-1
R14: #1a habits 8-1
Good luck today!
