UFC 197 Betting Preview
By Brian Edwards
Jon ‘Bones’ Jones first stepped foot inside the Octagon on Aug. 9 of 2008 as an unknown wrestler who had won his first six professional fights in the span of three months. He wouldn’t stay under the radar for long.
Jones (21-1 MMA, 15-1 UFC) defeated Andre Gusmao and Stephan Bonnar by unanimous decisions and then was given a coveted spot on the UFC 100 card in July of 2009. Jones delivered with a second-round submission win over Jake O’Brien.
To this day, the only blemish on his record came in his next fight against Matt Hamill at The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale. Jones was absolutely destroying Hamill, who was a bloody mess with a broken nose. Jones was wrecking Hamill’s face with elbows and looking at referee Steve Mazzagatti for the stoppage.
But Mazzagatti, who is known for his incompetence as an MMA ref, wasn’t stopping the bout even though Hamill was mounted and doing nothing other than trying to cover up. Therefore, Jones kept delivering elbows before Mazzagatti stepped in take a point away for what he deemed was an illegal 12-to-6 elbow.
As Jones got off of his opponent after Mazzagatti called time, Hamill didn’t move. He was done (before the illegal elbow) with a badly smashed nose. This resulted in a controversial disqualification of Jones, who was issued a loss in the W/L column.
It has been nothing but victories galore inside the Octagon since then. Wins over Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko and Ryan Bader set Jones up with a title shot against Shogun Rua at UFC 128. Jones destroyed Rua with a third-round knockout to become the UFC’s youngest champion ever.
He proceeded to dominate the light-heavyweight loop for four years, claiming title-defense victories over Rampage Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Vitor Belfort, Chael Sonnen, Alexander Gustafsson, Glover Teixeira and Daniel Cormier. Jackson, Machida, Evans and Belfort were former 205-pound champions and Cormier is the current champ.
Belfort threatened Jones in the first round with a tight armbar that would’ve finished many other fighters. Jones refused to tap, however, and eventually wiggled out and went on to dominate in a fourth-round KO triumph. Other than Belfort’s submission attempt and solid second-round showings from Evans and Cormier, nobody has even been competitive against Jones other than Gustafsson, who went into the championship rounds at UFC 165 with the lead on the judges’ scorecards.
Gustafsson-Jones was the 2013 Fight of the Year. The Swede had Jones in all sorts of trouble in Rounds 2 and 3. MMA fans had never seen Jones bleed, but he was a mess by end of the second stanza. When Gustafsson was done having his way in Round 3, Jones’s lip was grotesquely swollen.
The ‘dogfight’ Jones had been looking for had arrived. In the fourth and fifth rounds, however, Jones rallied. A spinning back elbow late in the fifth hurt Gustafsson badly and removed any doubt that the final round would go to the champ, who captured the UD by scores of 48-47, 48-47 and 49-46.
While Jones was dominating inside the cage during his reign as champ, controversies in his life kept emerging. He touts himself as a Christian, but he does so in a Michael Irvin sort of way. In other words, he leans on religion while trying to get out of trouble. In 2012, he drove his Bentley into a pole at 5:00 a.m. and pleaded guilty to DUI charges.
On many occasions, Jones has posted controversial opinions on social media, only to go back and delete those posts or claim that his account was hacked. When Dan Henderson pulled out of his UFC 151 showdown against Jones less than two weeks before the show, Jones refused to take on Chael Sonnen as a last-minute replacement even though Sonnen had never fought at light heavyweight in the UFC.
Left without a main event, the UFC was forced to cancel the entire show for the first time in the promotion’s history. Even when told that would happen, Jones still didn’t relent and refused to fight Sonnen. This negatively impacted the wallets of 20 other fighters who weren’t gathering checks from Nike and other sponsors that Jones had. In short, it was an immensely unpopular move among nearly all fighters and fans.
In the weeks leading up to his fight with Cormier, Jones was given a random drug test. Although the result wasn’t revealed by the Nevada Athletic Commission until after the fight, Jones tested positive for cocaine. He spent one day in rehab before declaring that he didn’t have an issue with drugs.
Then early on a Sunday morning on April 27 of last year, Jones ran a red light and crashed into a car driven by a pregnant woman while he was still out partying. We can all assume that Jones was certainly under the influence of at least alcohol and weed, especially since he left behind a pipe loaded with marijuana (oops!) when he fled the scene.
Witnesses said Jones ran up a hill fleeing until realizing he had left something behind. Then he sprinted back to his rental car and retrieved a big wad of cash, only to bolt the scene again. He stayed under the radar for more than 24 hours before surrendering Monday night after a warrant was issued for his arrest on felony hit-and-run charges.
The UFC stripped Jones of his light-heavyweight strap and suspended him indefinitely. Cormier would win the vacant title by submitting Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson and successfully defended his belt with a split-decision win over Alexander Gustafsson.
The bitter rivals were scheduled to meet in Saturday’s UFC 197 main event, but Cormier had to pull out a few weeks ago due to a leg injury. After offering the fight to Johnson, who declined due to the short notice, the UFC gave sixth-ranked Ovince St. Preux the shot at Jones for the interim heavyweight title.
St. Preux (19-7 MMA, 7-2 UFC) won his first four UFC fights, including three finishes (two by submissions) and a Performance of the Night bonus. But in his first five-round main event against Ryan Bader, his takedown defense was an issue and he lost by UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46). Less than three month later, however, he went to Brazil and faced Rua in a main event.
OSP needed just 34 seconds to KO the MMA legend. The former University of Tennessee football player followed that up with another first-round KO victory over Patrick Cummins. Next, St. Preux was given another main event and did so on his home turf in Nashville. OSP had Teixeira hurt in the first round and again early in the second, but the veteran Brazilian withstood the barrage and shifted the momentum of the fight with a takedown.
Teixeira dominated the rest of the second round on the ground. Again in the third stanza, Teixeira scored a takedown and eventually worked to a rear-naked choke to tap OSP out at the 3:10 mark. OSP bounced back, however, on Feb. 6 in Las Vegas where he captured a UD win over Rafael Cavalcante.
As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Jones listed as a -600 ‘chalk,’ with OSP at +400 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $400). The total was 2.5 rounds shaded heavily to the ‘under’ (-225, the ‘over’ is +195).
Prediction: Jones’s height/length and 84.5-inch reach has given him an enormous advantage over all of his opponents with one exception – Gustafsson. That’s because ‘The Mauler’ has the same size and a 79-inch reach. OSP has an 80-inch reach and is the third-tallest fighter to face Jones (behind only Gustafsson and Bonnar). Jones has added muscle to his frame while on the sidelines, and he’s going to need every bit of it against St. Preux. OSP probably offers the most dynamic combination of size, strength and athleticism that Jones has ever faced. As we’ve pointed out, St. Preux’s weakness is his ground game and takedown defense, and this is a mismatch if Jones comes out and executes with his wrestling talents. However, when the fight is standing, OSP has better than a puncher’s chance. Outside of Rumble Johnson, OSP has more one-punch power than any fighter in the 205-pound division. Make no mistake, he can KO Jones. But being able to do it and actually getting it done are two different things. That threat from OSP makes it tempting to get a small taste of the underdog and if the odds get more generous on Saturday, I may just do that. But I can’t advise you to wager against Jones, the greatest talent to ever step foot in the Octagon. You don’t want to risk the outrageous straight price, though. If your book is offering props and you can go that route by backing Jones, do it like that. I’ll recommend a one-unit play on Jones to win in Round 2, which pays a +325 return at 5Dimes. I think the fight goes ‘under’ 2.5 rounds, but the ‘chalky’ price is out of my range.
In the co-main event, Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson will defend his flyweight championship for the eighth time against Henry Cejudo, who won a gold medal in wrestling at the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, China.
As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Johnson (23-2-1 MMA, 10-1-1 UFC) installed as a -400 favorite with Cejudo as the +320 underdog. The total was 4.5 rounds (‘over’ -190, ‘under’ +160) .
Johnson has won nine consecutive fights and hasn’t tasted defeat since dropping a UD to Dominick Cruz on Oct. 1 of 2011. He has four finishes during his winning streak, including three submissions. Johnson, the only flyweight champ in the promotion’s history, has a pair of wins over Joseph Benavidez, who has never lost to anyone not named Johnson or Cruz in 28 career fights.
Cejudo (10-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) has collected all four of his UFC wins by decision, including a split-decision victory over Jussier Formiga at TUF Latin America 2 in Monterrey, Mexico, last November.
Prediction: I think Johnson wins by decision, so I’ll suggest a one-half unit play on that result which is a prop for a +390 return at 5Dimes.
Hardcore fans are probably most excited for a lightweight showdown on the main card featuring a pair of incredibly exciting kickboxers in Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis and Edson Barboza. As of late Friday, most spots had Pettis as a -170 favorite, while Barboza is the +145 underdog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -120, ‘under’ +100).
Pettis (18-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) is in desperation mode after back-to-back losses to current 155-pound kingpin Rafael dos Anjos and Eddie Alvarez. Pettis came into the UFC as the former World Extreme Cagefighting lightweight champ, only to lose a UD to Clay Guida in his Octagon debut.
Pettis wasn’t overly impressive his next time out, taking a split-decision victory over Jeremy Stephens at UFC 136. But at UFC 144, he returned to ‘Showtime’ form with a head-kick KO of Joe Lauzon just 81 seconds into their scrap. When Pettis earned a second straight KO of the Night bonus by beating Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone with a body kick, he was given a title shot against Benson Henderson.
Pettis won the belt from ‘Smooth’ by submitting him with an armbar with 29 seconds remaining in the opening round. He would successfully defend his strap against Gilbert Melendez at UFC 181, setting up a showdown with Dos Anjos at UFC 185.
RDA absolutely dominated Pettis for 25 minutes. The Brazilian was in control from the start, peppering Pettis with an arsenal of different kicks and strikes when he wasn’t taking Pettis down and working him with ground-and-pound punishment. In bounce-back mode three months ago in Boston, Pettis came up on the short end of the split decision against Alvarez.
Barboza (16-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC) has garnered six career Fight of the Night bonuses, including two straight. He is attempting to bounce back from a second-round submission loss to Tony Ferguson this past December.
Barboza has lost two of his last three bouts, sandwiching a UD win over Paul Felder in between losses to Ferguson and Michael Johnson (UD). He owns notable career wins over Bobby Green, Evan Dunham, Danny Castillo, Terry Etim (by spinning wheel kick!), Ross Pearson and Anthony Njokuani.
The ‘over’ has cashed in four Barboza fights in a row and two straight for Pettis.
Prediction: Excitement from start to finish! If you can get plus odds for this bout to take Fight of the Night honors, I recommend that. If we get three full rounds of these guys avoiding the ground and just standing and trading, we will be loving life! I lean Pettis here, but I’m not confident enough to lay the fairly expensive price.
The rest of the card looks like this:
Yair Rodriguez -145 vs. Andre Fili (+125)
Robert Whittaker -285 vs. Rafael Natal (+245)
Danny Roberts -360 vs. Dominique Steele (+295)
Sergio Pettis -225 vs. Chris Kelades (+190)
Carla Esparza -190 vs. Juliana Lima (+160)
James Vick -180 vs. Glaico Franca (+160)
Cody East -165 vs. Walt Harris (+140)
Marcos Rogerio De Lima -135 vs. Clint Hester (+115)
Kevin Lee -420 vs. Efrain Escudero (+335)
**Octagon Nuggets**
-- The UFC 200 presser went down in Las Vegas on Friday and, as expected, Conor McGregor didn’t make it. Therefore, Dana White faced a slew of questions about McGregor being yanked off of the card earlier this week due to his refusal to fly from Iceland to Vegas for the promotional work this weekend. White definitively ruled McGregor out of UFC 200, stating that he was working on a new opponent for Nate Diaz.
-- During the press conference, McGregor sent out the following tweet: “Everyone flew in. Respect. But not everyone up there made the company 400 million in 8 months.”
-- When ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto asked Diaz if he had a response to McGregor’s tweet, Nate said, “Connor got his ass beat.”
-- White conceded that Jones-Cormier II for the UFC 200 main event was a possibility. That would hinge on Jones not only beating OSP on Saturday night, but getting out of the fight unscathed. There’s also Cormier’s recovery from his injury, which is expected to take a few more weeks before he can starting training. But barring a setback for Cormier, this scenario is very conceivable. In other words, OSP can spoil the party for everybody!
-- What happens if OSP wins or if Jones-Cormier II unravels due to injuries to either? I think one remote possibility is Nate Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler for the welterweight strap. There have been recent reports that Lawler will defend his strap against Tyron Woodley at UFC 201 or 202, but nothing is official on that front yet.
-- Diaz stated that he’s going on vacation if he’s not fighting McGregor, but money talks and Nate won’t walk away from a big-money fight if it’s offered to him. And with his win over McGregor, his popularity, which was already quite high, has soared through the roof. And White is on the record as saying he doesn’t want Nate to “get screwed” with this whole deal, so the UFC is clearly trying to keep him on the card.
-- On the Fox Sports 1 introduction preceding Friday’s weigh-ins, former light-heavyweight champ ‘Suga’ Rashad Evans confirmed that his career will continue despite a second straight loss last week to Teixeira in Tampa. Some felt that Evans may consider retirement, but he’s instead mulling a move to another division.
