Raphael Esparza
Take Chicago Cubs OVER 70 Regular Season Wins
No, I don’t believe the Cubs will be in the playoff hunt, but I do see them playing some good baseball this season. Last year the Cubs had trouble with the bullpen and scoring, but this season I see this very young team producing early. Starlin Castro will have a better season than last year, and I see the Cubs offense producing more runs than last year. Hopefully the young arms on the mound can take a full baseball season and the attitude of this team is changing. I see the Cubs not being a pushover this season. I see them around 74-76 wins, and I think that this one goes over.
Indian Cowboy
Take OVER – Detroit vs. Philadelphia (7:30 p.m., Saturday, March 29)
There is an old saying or old tracking system that we follow that points out significantly that when two sub-.500 teams get to play together, the offensive fireworks start. We have followed it for the past 10+ years for the spreadsheets that we have for it, and such is the case here. Detroit is not going anywhere, and neither is Philadelphia, who continues to feel the pressure of needing to win a game, any game, before the close of the season. Both of these teams and their players are working on their offensive stats and “getting their own” if you will. Detroit is on the road as well, and don’t be surprised on a Friday night if you have Philadelphia as a solid active underdog and this game likely goes over the posted total. Detroit beat this team 113-96 the last time they played, and they can certainly put up the same number of points here as Philadelphia will likely exceed the 100 points at home. We currently have this game as high as 220, so take a look at it when the line comes out or by the time you receive our Docs newsletter. With the active underdog here, the players getting their own, this might be one of the most entertaining games on Friday night as note the over is 8-2 when Philadelphia plays sub-.500 teams as an active underdog and this likely is a spot here as well.
CRAIG DAVIS
Bonus Play of the day on the Dallas Mavericks over Sacramento as they hope to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Way too much talent on this Dallas team for them to be struggling behind Phoenix and Memphis for the final spots in the playoff race, but that's what happens when you blow home leads vs. the Clippers and T'Wolves in a week.
Beating the Thunder two out of the three shows me they more than have enough talent to get the playoffs and possibly make some noise, but losing games they shouldn't lose is ultimately do them in.
I think they played themselves out of the playoffs when they blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead vs. the Clippers Thursday night. Absolutely unacceptable and completely ridiculous for that to happen, but it is what it is and now they have a LOT of work to do.
It starts tonight vs. a team they should beat by 30, but if they don't take it seriously, they could find themselves too far out of the playoff race... and I don't think that's going to happen (yet).
Take the Mavs to slaughter the Kings... with or without Isaiah Thomas as your Bonus Play of the day.
1* DALLAS
CHRIS JORDAN
Dallas, which is 3-3 on its current eight-game homestand following Thursday’s loss to the Clippers, has fallen one-half game behind Phoenix for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference and has very little margin for error over its remaining nine games if it hopes to make the playoffs.
Two days after the loss to Los Angeles, I think the Mavericks will be out to release a little aggression, and there might be no better opponent to do so against. Dallas has won six of the last seven meetings.
These two have split two games this season, which isn't a bad thing, as Dallas knows to expect another fight. The Mavs fell the Kings in Sacramento, 112-97, back on Dec. 9. Then, on Jan. 31, the Mavericks were once again pushed to the brink before rallying in the third quarter to negate a 14-point deficit to earn a 107-103 home win.
Dallas comes in on a long-standing 38-13 ATS win streak after a straight-up loss, and has covered nine of 13 in intraconference play. The home team also rides in on a 9-3 ATS win streak. Let's lay the chalk in this game.
5* DALLAS
GABRIEL DUPONT
My Bonus Play for today is going to be on the Over in the Western Conference clash between the Dallas Mavericks and the Sacramento Kings, as I think the third meeting is about to be very interesting.
Why the Mavericks will help push this total high - Dallas is in after a tough-to-swallow loss to the Los Angeles Clippers two nights back and is now behind Phoenix in the Western Conference standings, for the eighth and final playoff spot. The Mavericks' biggest problem has been maintaining a lead, and so once they catch a groove tonight, I expect them to keep the pedal floored in this one, and never let up.
Why the Kings will be able to help this one over - Sacramento won the first meeting and held a 14-point, third-quarter lead in the second game. The Kings may not be near as good as the Mavericks, and certainly doesn't have as much to play for, but they'll arrive in Big D with enough confidence to hang with the Mavericks and challenge for the outright. There's no telling if they can stay inside the number as the game closes, but it'll be a fun shootout.
In conclusion, why the OVER is my SMART PLAY in this game - These two tend to put on a high-scoring show, as 13 of the last 16 meetings in Dallas have gone over, and 41 of the last 58 meetings have soared past the number. More recently, seven of the last eight meetings have gone over.
Dallas will force the issue, the Kings will answer and the the Mavericks won't worry about stopping Sacramento, as much as they'll be looking to outscore their guest. I wouldn't be surprised to see this one get into the 220s, as the Mavericks will be fired up to avenge Thursday's loss to the Clippers.
Play this one high.
3* OVER
JEFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie is the Houston Rockets to end their losing streak to the Los Angeles Clippers.
Houston has been on the wrong side of things against Los Angeles in all 3 meetings this season both straight up and against the spread, and they have also lost 8 of the last 9 meetings overall to the Clippers.
That changes tonight at home, as Houston enters play this Saturday having won 5 straight, while covering in 4 of the 5 wins. The Rockets are also riding an 11 game home court winning streak that has seen them cover 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 at the Toyota Center.
The Clippers have dropped 2 of their last 3 away from the Staples Center, so I am calling for the Rockets to get the monkey off their back in this home game on Saturday night.
Houston gets on board in the season series with the win and cover.
3* HOUSTON
SCOTT DELANEY
My Bonus Play for Saturday is on the Houston Rockets laying short chalk to the Los Angeles Clippers, who are in two days after scoring a road upset of the Dallas Mavericks.
I'm pretty intrigued to see the point-guard matchup between Chris Paul and Jeremy Lin. Both are linchpins in their respective lineups, and truth is, the one who has the more effective game could be the one who leads his team to a victory.
Normally I would be siding with the Clippers and Paul in most point-guard chatter, but I have to say, at home and with his team on a five-game winning streak, I like Lin in this situation.
Lin's average of 8.7 points on 39.1 percent shooting against the Clippers this season seems bleak, but make note he played well against them as a starter last season, averaging 18.3 points on 48.8 percent shooting. I think since we're down the home stretch here, we're about to see some big numbers from Lin.
For the Rockets' sake, that better be the case, as we have the top two scoring teams - the Clippers being No. 1 and Houston falling in at No. 2.
I also expect to see James Harden get into shape for this one, as he too has struggled against the Clippers this season. Both he and Lin are crucial to the Rockets' lineup and they need to prove their worth in the midst of this win streak, against a potential playoff opponent that has been tabbed as top contender.
Take the home chalk.
5* HOUSTON
BRAD WILTON
It's not like the Pistons are setting the world on fire, but after tangling with the Miami Heat at Auburn Hills last night, Detroit should welcome a trip to the City of Brotherly Love where the 76ers have been showing the opposition "love" pretty much all season long!
Philly's losing streak is at an epic 26 games in row now, and their last pair of losses have come by 22 points a piece. The Sixers are 8-29 straight up at home this year, and they are just 11-26 against the spread in those 37 home games.
Detroit has won and covered each of the last 4 series meetings, and they are on a 6-1 straight up and against the spread roll the last 7 series meetings with Philadelphia.
Hate to be Captain Obvious y'all, but until further notice you have to keep going against the 76ers.
4* DETROIT
w-thumbs!^
.
