At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
Frigid temperatures knocked out the card at Aqueduct on Friday, the ninth complete cancellation so far this winter, but we should be back in action on Saturday.
We are going to see some snow but the temperature will hit a high of 36 degrees. It looks as if we may lose Sunday, as the forecast calls for a high of just 18 degrees and winds that could approach 40 miles per hour. The wind chill forecast for Sunday at post time is -2 degrees.
If they do not run, we still have plenty of options. I will probably head off to Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita for our betting action.
The marquee race on Saturday is the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields. It is one of two Derby points races this holiday weekend. Monday’s $300,000 Southwest (G2) at Oaklawn Park is the other.
The El Camino Real Derby is run over a synthetic surface, and has not has much of an impact on the Kentucky Derby, but today’s edition drew a solid field of 10 and is a good wagering race.
Conquest Typhoon is the lukewarm 7-2 morning line favorite for trainer Mark Casse. The colt won the Cecil B. Demille (G3) at Del Mar on turf in his last outing on Nov. 30.
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer sends out a trio of runners including California Derby winner Cross the Line. Hollendorfer has won the El Camino Real Derby a record six times.
The feature at the Big A today is the $100,000 Broadway for New York breds going six furlongs on the inner track. The Bill Mott trained Isabelle is the 5-2 morning line favorite and looks like the one to beat.
Here is today’s opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $50,000 (12:45 ET)
2 My Son Ernie 4-1
6 Point Hope 2-1
4 Sherifco 7-2
3 Forest Boy 9-5
Analysis: My Son Ernie drops back in for a tag after checking in fourth last out against maiden special weight foes at Laurel Park off a seven-month layoff. The gelding showed some promise in his debut last April, missing by just a neck, but then ran fifth in his next two starts. He catches an easier group here and is in good hands with the Tony D. barn that is 3 for 9 (with a +ROI) with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff.
Point Hope was bumped coming out of the gate and after being last early made a mild late run to finish fourth last out going long on the inner in the mud. He earned solid figures in a couple of one-turn mile races at Belmont Park last fall. His lone sprint try came in his debut back in '13 where he checked in fifth. Rice is 19% winners moving runners form route to sprint. He drops in for a tag for just the second time and first time since the connections claimed this guy for $65,000 last summer.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 2,4,6
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Broadway (4:13 ET)
4 Isabelle 5-2
1 Blithely 3-1
5 Atlantic's Smile 7-2
7 Uncle Southern 8-1
Analysis: Isabelle came off a 5 1/2 month layoff with a sharp win against Alw-2 company, beating a couple of these foes she runs into again today. She is back with state breds and she won the Bouwewrie against New York breds at Belmont Park last May. She figures to move forward in her second start off the shelf for the Mott barn.
Blithely exits the same race as our top pick where she checked in third after a tough trip and less than stellar ride from Ortiz. The filly was on hold behind runners on the far turn, came up the inside only to have to alter course to the outside when a foe drifted in on her. Then she had to steady a couple of times in the stretch and could not get going again sitting in behind foes. She beat Alw-1 foes two back and is back with state breds here as she makes her stakes debut.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,4,5,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 10 The Hurricane Bertie G3 (5:00 ET)
1 More Than a Party 5-2
4 Merry Meadow 7-5
5 Wildcat Lily 5-1
6 Centrique 6-1
Analysis: More Than a Party is perfect in three trips over the main track here and will get the jump on the chalk in here. Last out the filly went gate to wire to beat Alw-2 optional claimers earning a career top speed fig. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and makes her third start of her current form cycle.
Merry Meadow won the Sugar Swirl (G3) in her first start over the surface and has now landed in the money in 22 of her 35 career starts, seven wins. She is the logical one to beat here but her price is going to end up on the light side.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 1,4 1,4,5,6 / 1,3,4,5,6
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #4 Ausable River 8-1
R3: #2 Line Move 15-1
R3: #7 Essence At Noon 8-1
R6: #3 My Buddy 10-1
R8: #7 Uncle Southern 8-1
R9: #4 Kelly’s Prize 12-1
Good luck today!
