Saturday 12/24/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
Good luck on all your plays.

When not viewing the service plays.
Make sure to enjoy the rest of what the RX has to offer.

First time here at the RX.
Make sure to visit the Newbies Room
Click here to go there now

 

[superbeets]

Premier League Mo 26Dec 12:30

Watford

v

C Palace

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT WATFORD	RECENT FORM
HWHLALHWALAL​ Most recent​	0 - 1 2 - 2 0 - 2 1 - 1	HLALHWADHLHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Crystal Palace have won just twice in 19 league away games

EXPERT VERDICT: Watford have seen off some strong opposition at Vicarage Road this season, beating Manchester United and Everton as well as Leicester and Hull, and while they did suffer an off-day to lose to Stoke in November, that was a rare blemish on a solid record. Crystal Palace have one win in ten and are conceding too many goals.

RECOMMENDATION: Watford
3


REFEREE: Mark Clattenburg STADIUM:

Premier League Mo 26Dec 15:00

Chelsea

v

Bournemouth

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT CHELSEA	RECENT FORM
AWHWAWHWAWAW​ Most recent​	0 - 1 1 - 0 2 - 0	AWALHWALHWHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Eden Hazard has scored eight goals in 16 league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Chelsea’s title challenge continues to gather pace and they should give their fans plenty of Christmas cheer with a victory over Bournemouth. Eden Hazard, rejuvenated by the arrival of Antonio Conte, can lead the way for the Blues in the absence of the suspended Diego Costa as the leaders look for a 12th straight Premier League win.

RECOMMENDATION: E Hazard first goalscorer
1


REFEREE: Mike Jones STADIUM:

Premier League Mo 26Dec 15:00

Burnley

v

Middlesbro

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BURNLEY	RECENT FORM
ALHLALHWALAL​ Most recent​	1 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 2	HLADHWALHLHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Burnley have claimed 16 of their 17 points at home

EXPERT VERDICT: Burnley will be happy to be back on home soil after consecutive away defeats at West Ham and Tottenham. The Clarets are a much better outfit when playing in front of their own fans, claiming all but one of their 17-point tally and 14 of their 16 goals at Turf Moor. Middlesbrough have won just once on the road and look vulnerable favourites.

RECOMMENDATION: Burnley
2


REFEREE: Craig Pawson STADIUM:

Premier League Mo 26Dec 15:00

Arsenal

v

West Brom

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ARSENAL	RECENT FORM
HLAWAWHWALAL​ Most recent​	2 - 0 4 - 1 1 - 0 2 - 0	HWADHWALHWHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Arsenal have conceded at least one goal in each of their last five home games

EXPERT VERDICT: Arsenal’s last league defeat at the Emirates came on the opening day of the season and the Gunners are a warm order to record a Boxing Day victory. They should justify short prices but West Brom have been potent in front of goal, including on the road where only Bournemouth and rock-solid Chelsea have prevented them from finding the net.

RECOMMENDATION: Arsenal to win 2-1
1


REFEREE: Neil Swarbrick STADIUM:

Premier League Mo 26Dec 15:00

Leicester

v

Everton

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT LEICESTER	RECENT FORM
HDALALHWALAD​ Most recent​	3 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 1 0 - 0	HDALHDALHWHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: both teams have scored in Leicester’s last five home games

EXPERT VERDICT: Leicester showed glimpses of their title-winning form when they hammered Man City at home but their inconsistencies resurfaced when they were beaten away at Bournemouth just three days later. The Foxes have scored in all but two of their home games this season, while Ronald Koeman’s team are also capable in attack.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
2


REFEREE: Stuart Attwell STADIUM:

Premier League Mo 26Dec 15:00

Swansea

v

West Ham

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SWANSEA	RECENT FORM
ADHWALHWALAL​ Most recent​	0 - 0 1 - 1 0 - 0 3 - 0	ADALHLADHWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Swansea are unbeaten in three games against West Ham, winning 4-1 at Upton Park in May

EXPERT VERDICT: Swansea’s dreadful away form continues, but in south Wales they have lost just one of four matches under Bob Bradley. Even that was to Manchester United, with the Swans beating Sunderland and Crystal Palace, so there have been signs of life. West Ham ended a seven-match winless run with two wins in a week leading up to Christmas, but a pair of 1-0 home wins over Burnley and Hull is no proof of a return to form.

RECOMMENDATION: Swansea
1


REFEREE: Andre Marriner STADIUM:

 

[HamGlaze]

Has any Service had a "GOY" on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Non-playoff college football bowl game betting mismatches
By MONTY ANDREWS

Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches for the college bowls, giving you an inside edge when handicapping football games over the busy holiday season.

Hawai'i Bowl

Hawaii vs. Middle Tennessee (OFF)

I'Tavius Mathers vs. Rainbow Warriors' putrid run D

Middle Tennessee senior running back I'Tavius Mathers has been one of the most pleasant surprises in the nation; coming into the year with just over 1,000 rushing yards in three seasons, Mathers has rumbled for a school-record 1,502 heading into the final game of his collegiate career. And he's a great bet to add to that total with emphasis as he and the Blue Raiders face off against a Hawai'i defense that was gashed on the ground for most of the season.

Mathers opened the campaign with a pair of so-so efforts but caught fire after that, reeling off six consecutive 100-yard efforts highlighted by a 28-carry, 215-yard performance in a wild road victory over Missouri. The Hawai'i Bowl matchup is one of the easier ones Mathers will have all season, as the Rainbow Warriors allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the nation (3,161) and were one of only 24 teams to allow 30 or more scores on the ground. Look for Mathers to eat in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Need-to-know betting notes for college football bowl teams
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Indulge me for a moment as I impart one piece of advice upon you before we dive into this year’s 80 need-to-know betting notes for each of the 80 college football bowl teams: above all else, put an increased emphasis on the motivation factor when handicapping each of these 40 matchups.

Why? Because there’s some easy money to be made during bowl season. Every year we are blessed with at least a handful of matchups that feature one team experiencing unbridled enthusiasm to play in its respective game against an opponent that has virtually no interest whatsoever in trying to win the showdown in question.

Case in point: Alabama’s 45-31 loss to Oklahoma in the 2014 Sugar Bowl. The Crimson Tide couldn’t have cared less about that game after watching an 11-0 season go up in smoke thanks to a 34-28 upset loss at Auburn which prevented the Tide from advancing to the SEC Championship Game.

Let’s go to work. Happy holidays to all!

Hawai’i Bowl: Saturday, December 24 (8 p.m. ET)

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (6-7 SU, 5-7 ATS): Hawaii’s last two trips to the Hawai’i Bowl (2008 and 2010) both resulted in losses, to Notre Dame and Tulsa, respectively. The good news for the Rainbow Warriors, however, is that this game marks the program’s first postseason bid since 2010, so we should be able to assume that motivation will not be an issue. Hawaii finished the regular season by failing to cover the spread in five straight games.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS): Middle Tennessee has notched just one bowl victory since 1960, which came in the form of a 42-32 win over Southern Mississippi in the 2009 New Orleans Bowl. The Blue Raiders are just 4-11-1 ATS over their last 16 games played on an artificial surface.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawai’i Bowl betting preview: Hawaii vs Middle Tennessee

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-7, 72.5)

Two teams that ended their regular seasons on a strong note will do battle Dec. 24, as Hawaii tangles with Middle Tennessee in what is essentially a home game for the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii reeled off back-to-back narrow victories over Fresno State and Massachusetts to secure bowl eligibility for the first time since 2010. The Blue Raiders won shootouts over Charlotte and Florida Atlantic to clinch its first eight-win campaign since 2013.

The Rainbow Warriors weren't assured a bowl berth following their 46-40 victory over the Minutemen, but earned an exemption because not enough teams wound up bowl-eligible. Hawaii is 3-3 all-time in Hawaii Bowl contests, but this will be its first appearance as a member of the Mountain West Conference, which placed seven teams in bowl games this season. This is the first six-win season since 2011 for the Rainbow Warriors, who went 11-39 the previous four seasons.

The Blue Raiders capped a highly successful regular season in style, setting school records in points, offensive yards and touchdowns in a 77-56 slugfest with the Owls. It was a fitting end to the season for a Middle Tennessee team that broke season-long marks with 6,188 total offensive yards, 481 total points and 61 offensive touchdowns. It's the 10th bowl game in school history, and the Blue Raiders come in with a 3-6 bowl record all-time.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Middle Tennessee opened this game as 4.5-point favorites and were quickly bet all the way to -7, where the number currently sits. The total opened at a high 70 and has been bet up to the current number of 72.5.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Christmas Eve at Aloha Stadium is partly sunny skies and temperatures in the low-80’s. There will be 14 mph winds heading west and showers are expected in the evening and might affect the end of the game.

INJURY REPORT:

Hawaii - DB Daniel Lewis Jr. (questionable, disciplinary), WR Devan Stubblefield (questionable, undisclosed)

Middle Tennessee - QB John Urzua (questionable, concussion), OL Carlos Johnson (questionable, undisclosed), QB Brent Stockstill (questionable, collarbone), WR Jocquez Bruce (probable, ankle)

ABOUT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (6-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 8-4 OU): The Blue Raiders appeared to be in peril after star quarterback Brent Stockstill was lost for the season to a broken collarbone in early November - but you wouldn't know it by looking at a Middle Tennessee offense that plastered the scoreboard for 115 points in the final two games of the season. While the Blue Raiders did the majority of their damage through the air with Stockstill at the helm, they were ruthless on the ground against Florida Atlantic, rushing for 495 yards and nine scores - three each by I'Tavius Mathers, Richie James and Dennis Andrews. Mathers was the pulse of the running game during the season, racking up 1,504 yards and 16 touchdowns on 220 carries.

ABOUT HAWAII (8-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 8-4 OU): The Rainbow Warriors will need to lean heavily on sophomore quarterback Dru Brown, who threw for more than 2,200 yards and 15 touchdowns while adding 283 yards and three scores on the ground. Hawaii's three-headed rushing tandem of Diocemy Saint Juste (836 yards, three TDs), Paul Harris (537 yards, two TDs) and Steven Lakalaka (415 yards, 12 TDs) will hope to help take the pressure off Brown, who bolstered his final numbers with a five-touchdown effort against UMass. The Rainbow Warriors do have a difference-maker on the defensive side in linebacker Jahlani Tavai, who was awarded All-Mountain West honors after posting a team-leading 118 tackles and seven sacks.

TRENDS:

* Rainbow Warriors are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
* Over is 5-0 in Rainbow Warriors last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Blue Raiders last 7 games overall.

CONSENSUS: A whopping 79 percent of wagers are on Middle Tennessee.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawaii Bowl Preview

Hawaii Bowl (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) vs. Hawaii Warriors

Line: Middle Tennessee -7, Total 72.5

Middle Tennessee State will be looking to cap off an impressive season with a victory over Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl on Saturday.

The Blue Raiders are going to a bowl game for the second year in a row, but they’ll be looking to snap a three-game bowl-losing streak that dates back to 2010.

This just might be the year for Middle Tennessee, as it is facing a Hawaii team that finished the year at below .500. The Rainbow Warriors struggle to score the football, as they scored 17 or fewer points in three of their final four games this season.

That type of performance just is not going to cut it against a Blue Raiders team that hung 77 on Florida Atlantic in the season finale.

Middle Tennessee is as explosive of a team as there is in the country and Hawaii must find a way to keep up on Saturday. One situation that sticks out when looking at this game is that home underdogs that allowed 37 or more points in their most recent game (Hawaii) are 20-49 ATS over the past 10 seasons when facing an opponent that was leading its past two games by 14 or more points at the half.

Hawaii is, however, 4-1 ATS after scoring 37 points or more over the past three seasons.

The health of QB Brent Stockstill (Collarbone) is something that is lingering over this game. Stockstill is 'questionable' for the Blue Raiders, and it would be a complete game changer if he were to be out there on Saturday.

If QB Brent Stockstill (2,801 yards, 27 TD, 5 INT) is able to go on Saturday then the Blue Raiders will have no problem throwing the ball.

Stockstill has been outstanding all season, and he even threw for 399 yards with three touchdowns against a good Vanderbilt defense early in the year. He is, however, very capable of missing this game, as he has missed three straight and is still experiencing some serious discomfort.

If he can’t go then the Rainbow Warriors are going to see a ton of WR Richie James (97 rec, 1,463 yards, 11 TD). James is one of the best receivers in the nation, but he’ll do a whole lot more if Stockstill sits in this one.

Last game, James operated out of the wildcat against Florida Atlantic and he was excellent. James rushed 22 times for 207 yards and three touchdowns in that one, and he also caught four passes for 120 yards and a touchdown.

The Blue Raiders are not very confident in their backup, so James would be in for yet another action packed game if Stockstill is out. RB I’Tavius Mathers (1,504 yards, 16 TD) will also need to have a big game with or without Stockstill in there.

Mathers had 213 yards and three touchdowns against Florida Atlantic, but things won’t be as easy against this Hawaii defense on Monday.

If Hawaii is going to find a way to beat Middle Tennessee on Saturday then QB Dru Brown (2,214 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT) is going to need to be on his game for the Rainbow Warriors.

Brown is coming off of his best game of the season against Massachusetts, as he threw for 311 yards with five touchdowns and no picks. He also rushed for 44 yards on 10 carries in that game.

Brown will need to be accurate on Saturday, and he can’t afford to hesitate to use his legs either. He is a very good runner at the quarterback position, and Hawaii needs him to use that to his advantage in a game that should have a ton of scoring.

When Brown does go to the air, he’d be wise to target WR Marcus Kemp (70 rec, 1,036 yards, 7 TD). Kemp is coming off of a fantastic season for the Rainbow Warriors, and he had a touchdown in that game against Massachusetts. Hawaii could use a big performance from him in this one.

Defensively, Hawaii needs to find a way to slow down the run. The Rainbow Warriors were gashed on the ground this year, allowing 243.8 rushing yards per game. They’ll need to patch things up or the Blue Raiders will blow them out on Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) at Hawaii Warriors (6-7)

Date: December 24, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

While the month between the final regular-season game and a bowl game can affect teams, the plus side of it is getting injured players back.

That's what will happen for Middle Tennessee on Saturday at the Hawaii Bowl, where it expects to get the services of redshirt sophomore quarterback Brent Stockstill back as it takes on the host Rainbow Warriors at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu.

Stockstill, who missed the final three games of the regular season with a broken collarbone suffered in a Nov. 5 loss to Texas-San Antonio, threw for 2,801 yards and 27 touchdowns in nine games. He completed nearly 64 percent of his passes and tossed only five interceptions in 363 attempts.

"Brent has had a good week of practice," said his father, Blue Raiders coach Rick Stockstill. "He has had a couple of positive checkups and we are preparing like he will be under center for us come Saturday."

The return of Stockstill should only provide more juice to an offense that averaged just over 40 points per game in an 8-4 season, topping it off with a 77-point explosion in the regular-season finale, a win over Florida Atlantic.

Ole Miss transfer I'Tavius Mathers is one of the top dual-threat running backs in college football. Mathers rushed for 1,504 yards and 16 touchdowns this year while catching 62 passes for 589 yards and three more scores.

Wide receiver Richie James latched on to 97 passes for 1,463 yards and 11 touchdowns, and Ty Lee added 53 catches for 599 yards and seven scores. With all those skilled players to choose from, it's no wonder Middle Tennessee averaged 515.7 yards per game and scored 62 touchdowns.

On paper, its matchup with the Hawaii defense looks good, as the Warriors are permitting 37.5 points and 455.4 yards per game. But Blue Raiders offensive lineman Chandler Brewer says the Hawaii defense poses problems.

"They get to the ball pretty fast," he said. "We just have to keep our eyes in the right places and we should be able to take care of it."

The Rainbows wouldn't have made a bowl game had enough teams finished with winning records. But their 6-7 record was good enough because they had the advantage of a 13th regular-season game, which they used to edge Massachusetts 46-40 on Nov. 26.

Quarterback Dru Brown completed 62 percent of his passes for 2,214 yards and 15 touchdowns. The top receiver is Marcus Kemp, who caught 70 balls for 1,036 yards and seven scores.

It will be Hawaii's seventh appearance in the Hawaii Bowl but its first since 2010.

"I can't tell you how proud I am of this team and especially these seniors who'll be able to say they played in a bowl game," first-year Warriors coach Nick Rolovich said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Dec. 24

MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. HAWAII (Hawaii Bowl)...Middle has lost and failed to cover last three bowls since 2010 and 1-4 SU and vs. line for Rick Stockstill in bowls since 2006. Blue Raiders, however, 6-2 vs. spread last eight vs. non-C USA teams. Nick Rolovich no covers last five this season and just 1-4 vs. spread at Aloha Stadium, and Rainbow Warriors just 1-10 last 11 and 2-13 last 15 vs. spread as host. First bowl for Hawaii since 2010 in this same Hawaii Bowl.

Slight to MTSU, based on extended Hawaii home negatives.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Bowl game writeups

Dec 24
Hawai’i Bowl: Middle Tennessee @ Hawai’i
No line yet on this game because of unknown status of Middle Tennessee QB Stockstill. Blue Raiders are 4-5 as a favorite this year, 2-3 in games with single digit pointspread- they won their last game 77-56 over FAU. Hawai’i went 11-39 the last four years, is 6-7 now and is somehow in a bowl. Hawai’i allowed 40+ points seven times this year; they won last two games, but are 2-4 in games with a single digit pointspread. Rainbows lost last three bowls, allowing 50.7 pts/game- except for their great ’07 season their last four bowls have all been here, on their home field. Six of last seven MTSU games, five of last seven Hawai’i games went over total. Favorites won/covered last three Hawai’i Bowls. last four of which were all decided by 15+ points. Mountain West teams lost four of last five appearances in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Vikings RB Peterson ruled out versus Packers
By The Sports Xchange

The Minnesota Vikings ruled out running back Adrian Peterson for Saturday's road game against the Green Bay Packers.
Peterson returned for last Sunday's game against the Indianapolis Colts after missing 11 games with a torn meniscus. He was limited to six carries for 22 yards and fumbled on his game-long 13-yard run in the 34-6 defeat, and apparently aggravated a groin injury against the Colts.
Peterson did not practice all week and was listed on Friday's injury report as having knee and groin injuries.
Peterson likely will not play in the Vikings' season finale on Jan. 1 against the Chicago Bears if the team has been eliminated from the playoff race. He has only 72 yards on 37 carries in three games this season.

--Philadelphia Eagles running back Ryan Mathews is done for the season after suffering a neck injury in Thursday's game that coach Doug Pederson termed a "significant" injury.
Pederson said Friday that Mathews may need to undergo surgery to repair a herniated disk in the neck. Pederson said he doesn't believe the injury is career-threatening.
Mathews rushed for 661 yards and a career-high eight touchdowns this season in his second campaign with the Eagles. There has been speculation that Philadelphia won't bring him back for the final season of his three-year contract but Pederson wanted no part of that topic on Friday.
The loss of Mathews leaves the Eagles with just two healthy running backs for the regular-season finale against the Dallas Cowboys -- veteran Darren Sproles and rookie Byron Marshall.

--With Rex Ryan facing questions about his job security, general manager Doug Whaley declined to give the Buffalo Bills' head coach a vote of confidence.
Ryan's future employment in Buffalo remains the hottest topic as the Bills likely will end their 17th straight season without a playoff appearance. Buffalo has not made the playoffs since 1999 -- the longest active postseason drought in the NFL.
Ryan is in the second year of a five-year deal for his second head-coaching job after being fired by the New York Jets following the 2014 season. The Bills are 15-15 in two seasons under Ryan.

--New York Jets coach Todd Bowles was admitted to a hospital with an undisclosed illness on Friday and did not accompany the team to Foxborough, Mass., for Saturday's game against New England, the team announced.
Bowles is listed in stable condition, although his availability to be on the sideline is uncertain as the Jets (4-10) visit the AFC East-rival Patriots (12-2).
Should the 53-year-old Bowles miss the game, assistant head coach/linebackers coach Mike Caldwell will assume the head-coaching responsibilities, the team said in a statement.

--San Diego Chargers running back Melvin Gordon was ruled out for a second straight week.
Gordon, who is three yards shy of rushing for 1,000 for the season, is dealing with hip and knee injuries that will sideline him for Sunday's matchup at the winless Cleveland Browns.
The second-year running back was injured in Week 14 at Carolina and missed last weekend's 19-16 setback to Oakland -- San Diego's third consecutive defeat.

--The Arizona Cardinals placed safety Tyrann Mathieu on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, marking the third time in four NFL seasons that he will finish on the injured reserve list.
Mathieu never could fully get past his 2015 ACL tear and then suffered a shoulder injury this season.
Since hurting his shoulder against the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 on Oct. 30, Mathieu played in only two of the next six games and struggled in both. The 24-year-old Mathieu played in 10 games this season, finishing with 33 tackles, one sack, one interception and four passes defensed.

--The San Francisco 49ers placed wide receiver Torrey Smith on injured reserve due to a concussion.
Smith suffered the concussion two weeks ago against the New York Jets in Week 14. He missed last Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons.
The 6-foot, 205-pound Smith started 12 games this season, making 20 receptions for 267 yards and three touchdowns.

--The Tennessee Titans ruled out cornerback Jason McCourty for Saturday's road game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
McCourty did not practice this week after suffering shoulder and chest injuries in the Titans' 19-17 win over the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday.
Linebacker Sean Spence is listed as questionable on Friday's injury report with an ankle injury

--The Denver Broncos will be missing four players for the Christmas night road game against the Kansas City Chiefs, including safety T.J. Ward, tight end A.J. Derby and tight end Virgil Green out due to concussions.
Linebacker Brandon Marshall (hamstring) also was ruled out for the Sunday night game at Arrowhead Stadium. He has not practiced since suffering a hamstring injury against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Dec. 4.
Ward, Derby and Green have been in the NFL concussion protocol this week after suffering head injuries in last Sunday's 16-3 loss to the New England Patriots.

--The Oakland Raiders activated defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. from injured reserve to the team's 53-man roster, making him eligible to play in Saturday's home game versus the Indianapolis Colts.
Rookie outside linebacker Shilique Calhoun (knee) was placed on season-ending injured reserve to make room for Edwards, who injured his hip in preseason. Edwards was placed on injured reserve Sept. 5 by Oakland.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL injury reports: Saturday

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
ARIZONA CARDINALS
--Out: CB Marcus Cooper (back, calf), T D.J. Humphries (concussion)
--Questionable: WR John Brown (illness), CB Brandon Williams (back)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
--Out: RB C.J. Prosise (shoulder)

ATLANTA FALCONS at CAROLINA PANTHERS
ATLANTA FALCONS
--Out: DT De'Vondre Campbell (concussion), TE Austin Hooper (knee)
CAROLINA PANTHERS
--Out: DE Ryan Delaire (knee)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at OAKLAND RAIDERS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
--Out: LB Chris Carter (shoulder)
--Questionable: CB Rashaan Melvin (knee), T Joe Reitz (back)
OAKLAND RAIDERS
--Out: LB Shilique Calhoun (knee), S Karl Joseph (toe), DT Stacy McGee (ankle)
--Questionable: WR Amari Cooper (shoulder), WR Michael Crabtree (finger), G Kelechi Osemele (ankle), LB Perry Riley (hamstring), LB Malcolm Smith (hamstring), DT Dan Williams (foot)

MIAMI DOLPHINS at BUFFALO BILLS
MIAMI DOLPHINS
--Out: QB Ryan Tannehill (knee)
--Doubtful: LB Jelani Jenkins (knee, hand), CB Byron Maxwell (ankle)
--Questionable: S Isa Abdul-Quddus (ankle), LB Kiko Alonso (hamstring, hand), T Jermon Bushrod (shoulder), CB Bobby McCain (knee, hand), DE Mario Williams (ankle)
BUFFALO BILLS
--Out: LB Lerentee McCray (concussion)
--Doubtful: T Cordy Glenn (back)
--Questionable: LB Preston Brown (foot), TE Charles Clay (knee), RB Jerome Felton (foot), G John Miller (hip), WR Sammy Watkins (foot), DT Kyle Williams (back), DT Jerel Worthy (shoulder)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
--Out: G Brandon Fusco (concussion), RB Zach Line (concussion), RB Adrian Peterson (knee, groin), WR Laquon Treadwell (ankle)
--Questionable: WR Stefon Diggs (hip), S Harrison Smith (ankle)
GREEN BAY PACKERS
--Out: LB Jayrone Elliott (hand), RB James Starks (concussion)
--Questionable: WR Randall Cobb (ankle), LB Nick Perry (hand), CB Damarious Randall (shoulder), C J.C. Tretter (knee)

NEW YORK JETS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
NEW YORK JETS
--Out: LB Lorenzo Mauldin (ankle), DT Steve McLendon (hamstring)
--Doubtful: RB Matt Forte (knee, shoulder)
--Questionable: WR Brandon Marshall (shoulder, back), RB Khiry Robinson (lower leg), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
--Out: WR Danny Amendola (ankle)
--Questionable: TE Martellus Bennett (ankle, shoulder), QB Tom Brady (thigh), LB Dont'a Hightower (knee), S Jordan Richards (knee), WR Matt Slater (foot)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
--Out: RB Melvin Gordon (hip, knee)
--Doubtful: CB Craig Mager (shoulder)
--Questionable: WR Jeremy Butler (ankle), T King Dunlap (knee), G Orlando Franklin (illness)
CLEVELAND BROWNS
--Questionable: LB Dominique Alexander (abdomen, groin), TE Randall Telfer (ankle, knee)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at LOS ANGELES RAMS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
--Doubtful: CB Dontae Johnson (groin), T Joe Staley (hamstring)
--Questionable: DT Glenn Dorsey (knee, ribs), C Marcus Martin (ankle)
LOS ANGELES RAMS
--Doubtful: S Maurice Alexander (concussion), CB Lamarcus Joyner (ankle), WR Mike Thomas (hip)
--Questionable: WR Bradley Marquez (knee)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
--Out: T Gosder Cherilus (groin, ankle), T Demar Dotson (concussion), DE William Gholston (elbow)
--Questionable: DT Gerald McCoy (foot)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
--Out: CB Delvin Breaux (shoulder)
--Questionable: LB Dannell Ellerbe (foot), RB John Kuhn (hip), LB Craig Robertson (shoulder), C Max Unger (foot)

TENNESSEE TITANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
TENNESSEE TITANS
--Out: CB Jason McCourty (chest)
--Questionable: LB Sean Spence (ankle)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
--Out: WR Arrelious Benn (concussion), DT Jordan Hill (calf), WR Allen Hurns (hamstring), LB Sean Porter (hamstring), RB Denard Robinson (ankle), WR Neal Sterling (concussion)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at CHICAGO BEARS
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
--Out: S Su'a Cravens (upper arm), CB Quinton Dunbar (concussion)
--Questionable: DE Chris Baker (ankle), LB Will Compton (knee), LB Terence Garvin (illness), LB Ryan Kerrigan (elbow), QB Colt McCoy (illness), TE Jordan Reed (shoulder), LB Martrell Spaight (shoulder)
CHICAGO BEARS
--Out: DT Eddie Goldman (ankle), G Eric Kush (concussion)
--Questionable: CB Bryce Callahan (knee), RB Ka'Deem Carey (shoulder), QB David Fales (right thumb), CB Cre'von LeBlanc (knee), DE Cornelius Washington (back), LB Willie Young (knee)

CINCINNATI BENGALS at HOUSTON TEXANS
CINCINNATI BENGALS
--Out: G Clint Boling (shoulder), LB Vontaze Burfict (knee, concussion), TE Tyler Eifert (back), TE Tyler Kroft (knee, ankle)
--Questionable: WR A.J. Green (hamstring), RB Jeremy Hill (knee), DE Michael Johnson (shoulder)
HOUSTON TEXANS
--Questionable: CB Johnathan Joseph (ribs), RB Lamar Miller (ankle)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL opening Line report: Ravens at Steelers highlights Week 16
By PATRICK EVERSON

Bettors will hope to stuff their stockings with winnings from the Week 16 NFL slate. We talk with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor., about four key games this Christmas week.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

Pittsburgh is on a five-game SU and ATS surge that has put it atop the AFC North heading into this pivotal contest. The Steelers (9-5 SU and ATS) rallied from a 17-3 deficit at Cincinnati on Sunday to snare a 24-20 victory as a 3-point favorite.

Baltimore (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS) edged Philadelphia 27-26 when the Eagles, after scoring a last-seconds touchdown, opted to go for the 2-point conversion and failed.
The Ravens, who beat Pittsburgh on Nov. 6, can reclaim first place – based on tiebreakers – with a road win this week, but are ostensibly in a must-win situation.

“Massive game for both teams, essentially an elimination game for the Ravens,” Childs said. “Historically, these games have always been competitive and go down to the wire. That said, the Steelers have been attracting so much public action that we had to factor that into our opening number.

“We have the Steelers a good 2 points higher in our power ratings. Throw in home field, and we thought of an opening number of 5. But knowing the history of this series, we felt 5 was just too much and decided to open at 4.5, which is our current number. So far, we’re seeing a bit more Ravens money than Steelers, but nothing major and certainly not enough to move the number.”

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

With two victories over Oakland this season, Kansas City had control of the AFC West, but gave away all that leverage in Week 15. The Chiefs (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) blew a 14-0 first-quarter lead against Tennessee, netting just a field goal the rest of the way and losing on a last-second field goal 19-17 laying 6 points at home.

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver (8-6 SU and ATS) is in a very precarious spot to return to the playoffs. The Broncos had two key turnovers that turned into 10 New England points Sunday in a 16-3 home loss as a 3-point pup. So Denver, which fell at home to K.C. 30-27 in overtime in Week 12, can’t take a loss in this Christmas night showdown.

“Both teams coming off tough losses, and the Broncos now have a major uphill battle to make the playoffs. It’s a must-win for them, but they simple cannot move the ball on offense,” Childs said. “They’ve scored just 13 points over their past two games, and things don’t get easier going into Kansas City with an offense that can’t run the ball. It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL with no running game.

“We have the Chiefs 2 points higher in our ratings, and we give the Chiefs 3.5 points for home field. We only give more than 3 points for home field on a handful of teams, such as the Seahawks and Chiefs. So our raw number was 5.5 points, but with all the anti-Broncos money we just booked in their game against the Pats, we wanted to open a touch high, so we opened at 6. We did take very sharp action on the Broncos +6, with the public supporting them too, so we moved straight from 6 to 5 on the Chiefs.”


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7)

A month ago, Green Bay was reeling at 4-6 SU. Now, the Packers are on a 4-0 SU run (3-1 ATS) and back in the NFC North hunt. Green Bay (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) let a 27-10 lead at Chicago melt away in frigid temperatures Sunday, but a big long ball from Aaron Rodgers late in the game led to a field goal that secured a 30-27 victory as a 4.5-point fave.

Meanwhile, Minnesota (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) continued to watch its playoff hopes fade away. The Vikings, who started the season 5-0 SU and ATS, got hammered at home Sunday by Indianapolis, 34-6 giving 5 points.

“The Vikings are another team that just can’t move the ball on offense. They can’t run the ball worth a lick, and teams that can’t run don’t win on the road in the NFL,” Childs said. “The Packers have been a monster public team the last few weeks, but they didn’t cash today, which might take some of the luster off them going forward. But we have to question the Vikes’ motivation against the Packers, who have to win if they want to win their division and continue their road to the playoffs.

“We have the Packers a solid 3.5 points higher in our ratings over the Vikings. Tack on 3 points for home field, and our raw number was 6.5, but with the big motivation edge going to the Packers, we decided to open on the key number of 7 and see what happens. So far, we’ve seen decent two-way action at that number, and we haven’t moved off it.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 16
By Marcus DiNitto

By this point of the NFL season, many teams’ chances of making the playoffs are nil, and bookmakers and bettors have to wrestle with the question of how motivated such squads will be in their last few games.

The answer is surely not one-size-fits-all. Teams that are used to playing meaningful games late in the season but recently saw this year’s playoff hopes vanish – the Cardinals and Bengals, for example – probably approach late-season games differently than a team like the Bears that has been out of contention for some time.

“If you’re a team that hasn’t been in the playoffs before, you’re working on (getting better). They may come and play a little harder,” John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn, said Sunday night. “Teams that have made the playoffs before and had high expectations that are not playing well, that are out of it, maybe you’ll get a little lesser performance out of them.”

Bettors, though, are kidding themselves if they think they can read teams’ minds and guess with any accuracy how hard they will play in “meaningless” games.

“For the one time you get it right, you’re probably wrong five other times,” said Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “It’s like flipping coins. You just don’t know.”

Still, Avello says he adjusts his numbers if a team has been eliminated from the playoff race.

“The reason those teams aren’t making the playoffs is they’re playing poorly, so it’s an adjustment of the power rating to go along with the team not needing the game,” Avello said. “It’s a combination of the two.”

Several of these teams face opponents in Week 16 that still have plenty to play for, and even though handicappers are not mind readers, this has to be a factor when analyzing games.

Here are all the opening point spreads for the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, which features most of the games on Christmas Eve (Saturday) but a pair of doozies on Christmas Day. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of Sunday night at 11 p.m. ET, with early line moves and differences among Vegas books also noted.

Saturday, Dec. 24

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

While not much can be gleaned from beating the Browns, Rex Ryan’s men played hard for him in Sunday’s 33-13 win. Spoiling their division rival’s season may provide the motivation they need to win at home again next week.

Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

The Bucs shut down the Saints’ offense when these teams met in Tampa Bay two weeks ago, and the 16-11 final score didn’t come close to getting the game ‘over’ the lofty total of 52. A different story figures to unfold in the Superdome.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were 3-point favorites when they visited Atlanta in Week 4 (the Falcons won 48-33 as Julio Jones lit up Carolina for 300 receiving yards), an indication of the massive power rating adjustments these teams have seen as the season has progressed.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7 even)

While the Packers have hit their stride with four straight wins and the Vikings continue to flounder, this number looks expensive to Salmons, whose shop opened Green Bay -6.5.

“I don’t care how bad Minnesota played (in Sunday’s 34-6 home loss to the Colts), that game ain’t 7,” Salmons said. “Green Bay is still the piece of garbage team we’ve seen all year. The Bears really should have won that game (the Packers won at Chicago, 30-27). For whatever reason, they got close to the goal line and they choked.”

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-16.5)

If this line holds, it will be the largest so far of the NFL season. New England opened a point lower at the Wynn, at -15.5. Either way, laying this number is a bit daunting, even with the gap in quality between these AFC East foes. The Pats almost always beat the Jets (they’ve won nine of the last 11 meetings), but they don’t cover a lot of spreads against them (1-7-1 ATS over the last nine).

Tennessee Titans (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee opened -3.5 at the Wynn, but that number was bet up to -4.5, where most books opened the game, within about 90 minutes of wagering. CG Technology opened Tennessee -4 and stood pat through early betting.

San Diego Chargers (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns

William Hill and Stratosphere opened San Diego -6.5 before early moves to -6.

The Browns are winless and have covered the spread only twice this season, but desperate teams can be dangerous.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-4)

The Westgate opened this game 4.5 but a bet on the dog prompted a move to 4.

Said Salmons, “It’s to the point now where I feel like if I don’t get dog money (on Sundays), I’m probably not going to get too much during the week. You get some wiseguys that bet dogs at the end (of the week), but you just get so overridden with all this chalk money, it’s just crazy.”

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

Next.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)

The Wynn was dealing Seattle -8 on Sunday night, while the Westgate had -9. William Hill opened -9 and moved to -8.5.

Despite Arizona’s being officially bounced from playoff contention via Sunday’s home loss to New Orleans, Salmons expects Bruce Arians’ men to show up against their division rival.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2)

There was an even mix of 2s and 2.5s for this AFC battle between a perennial playoff team that is no longer alive this season and another that is very much alive amid a brewing quarterback controversy.

Washington Redskins (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Sunday’s narrow loss as 5-point home underdogs to Green Bay marked the Bears’ fifth straight cover, and Salmons continues to be impressed with their effort under John Fox.

“The Bears play hard every week,” he said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Vikings-Packers in NFC North Playoff Battle'

The Green Bay Packers (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) can still win the NFC North. The Minnesota Vikings (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) are clinging to their playoff hopes. They’ll meet Saturday at Lambeau Field in the most important game of the season for both teams; kick-off is at 1 PM ET on FOX, with the Packers laying seven points.

These divisional rivals are heading in different directions with just two games left to go in the regular season. The Packers have pulled themselves out of the mire with four straight wins at 3-1 ATS; the Vikings are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in their last four games, including a pair of Thursday night losses by a combined five points. Minnesota’s playoff chances depend on victories over Green Bay and Chicago, plus a lot of help from elsewhere.

When these same two teams met in Week 2, it was the Vikings who prevailed 17-14 as 3-point home dogs. That was despite running back Adrian Peterson rushing for just 19 yards on 12 carries before leaving the game with a knee injury. Peterson returned to limited action last week against Indianapolis and ran for 22 yards (with a fumble) on six carries.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 15 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 15:

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 42)

I’m not quite sure Buffalo should be the favorite. Buffalo’s playoff outlook is rather bleak, to say the least, which doesn’t really conjure up a good reason to be playing with a whole lot of spirit.

Sure, historically speaking, the Bills would love to launch a salvo at one of their arch rivals. But Miami is in the thick of the playoff hunt, one game ahead of Baltimore, Tennessee and Denver. During any time of the year, we like to side with the team with the most incentive to play. What was considered a surprise upset earlier in the year in Miami doesn’t really look like it now as we see how the season panned out.

This is the 2016 season for Miami. A loss here would leave the Fins pinning their hopes on defeating the New England Patriots on the final weekend of the schedule. This game here affords them a little gap between the rest no matter what they do.

I had this game Miami -1.5 which truly scares me how off I am. But since we’re being given the better team with +3.5 (and I see a +4 out there as well), it might be worth a roll the dice with the Dolphins in Week 15.


San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+6.5, 44)

Now it comes down to a test of wills between a team that needs a win and a team that doesn’t want to be the team to lose to them.

You can say the Browns showed some life against Buffalo but they still lost by 20 points. In fact, Cleveland has lost by an average of 13.5 points per game all season. The Browns haven’t been as close as 6.5 for six consecutive games. Now you can play the “due factor” but that’s not going to get you too far. Particularly since they haven’t won a game in over a year.

The Chargers have been more than disappointing - again. But truly, take a look at the teams they have played the past 10 games. That’s a tough schedule. They know they don’t want to be the “it” team and lose to the Browns. We know they’re thinking that too. Being that this may be the second last game the Chargers will be known as San Diego’s team, we think the Bolts will be more than up for this one.

I had this +7.5, so I like what I see out there. We know we have the better team. We know the spread is more than attainable. Maybe this is the best chance the Browns have to win a game this season since they play at Pittsburgh in the last game of the year. But they’ve had chances all year and still haven’t won. We also don’t like the chances of RG3 having two good games in a row. He’s proven he can’t do that anymore.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 42)

Dolphins' relentless QB pressure vs. Bills' lack of a pass offense

The Dolphins have surged into wild-card contention after a slow start to the season - but there's still some work to do, beginning with a Week 16 matchup with the rival Bills in Buffalo. Miami's offense is in flux, with starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill out for the remainder of the season and No. 1 running back Jay Ajayi struggling to regain his form of earlier in the year. But the Dolphins' pass defense is better than ever, and should make things very difficult for the Buffalo offense.

The Dolphins haven't been able to do much against the run this year, having given up the third-most rushing yards in the league (1,855). But with LT Ndamukong Suh (89.0) and RE Cameron Wake (88.2) boasting superior Pro Football Focus scores, the Miami pass rush is a sight to behold. The Dolphins have racked up 31 sacks on the year, they lead the league with 115 QB pressures and their 16 interceptions through 14 games are tied with three other teams for second-most in the league.

That bodes well for the Dolphins this week, as they face off against a Bills pass offense that ranks among the worst in football. Buffalo comes into this one with the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL (2,557), having thrown just 14 touchdown passes through 14 games. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has had to put up with a makeshift wide receiving corps for the majority of the season - and with the Dolphins expected to create pressure all day, those passing stats likely won't improve much.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Tyrod Taylor

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 52)

Falcons' offensive superiority vs. Panthers' all-or-nothing pass D

Expect plenty of fireworks this weekend at Bank of America Stadium, as the Falcons and Panthers renew hostilities in a game featuring one of the highest Vegas totals of the week. The marquee matchup features Atlanta quarterback and MVP candidate Matt Ryan doing battle with a Carolina defense that has shown flashes of brilliance, but has too often looked overmatched and will likely miss out on a playoff berth as a result.

Ryan has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, guiding an Atlanta offense to the third-most passing yards in the league (4,146) and 32 passing touchdowns, tied for second-most in the NFL. Ryan himself boasts a sensational 90.8 PFF rating - third-best at his position - while three members of his vastly improved offensive line have PFF grades above 85.0. Simply put, the O-line has given Ryan plenty of time to work - and he has made opponents pay.

The Panthers aren't exactly slouches in pass defense - they have 16 interceptions on the season, and their 40 sacks are tied with Denver for the most in the league. But they could be without LB Luke Kuechly (concussion) yet again, and they have surrendered the most passing yards in the league as elite quarterbacks and O-lines have exposed their lack of secondary depth. Ryan and the Falcons picked Carolina apart in their first meeting; look for them to do it again Sunday.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Matt Ryan

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)

Bucs' fourth-quarter follies vs. Saints' late-game surges

This divisional rivalry is a rematch from Week 14, when the Saints went into Raymond James Stadium and laid a colossal egg en route to a 16-11 defeat. Oddsmakers are expecting a much different result this time around, with the Saints a modest favorite in a contest that should be a lot more high-scoring than the first go-around. And if it's close heading into the fourth quarter, New Orleans has a decided advantage if we consider the trends so far this season.

The Buccaneers have not been a solid fourth-quarter team in 2016, having averaged a paltry 5.6 points per game over the final 15 minutes - tied for 23rd league-wide. That mark is even lower in recent weeks, with Tampa Bay having scored just 14 total fourth-quarter points over its past three games. Even worse, the Bucs average just four points in fourth quarters on the road. Their season average falls exactly in line with their 2015 rate, which also ranked among the league's worst.

By comparison, the Saints have been one of the league's most dangerous fourth-quarter teams, averaging 9.6 points; only the Denver Broncos (10.2) average more. New Orleans' mark was inflated by a 21-point fourth quarter in last week's wild 48-41 triumph over the host Arizona Cardinals, helping them to a league-best 11.3 points-per-game mark in fourth quarters on the road - but with a still-robust 8.0 mark at home, the Saints are fourth-quarter menaces no matter where they play.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Drew Brees

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 43)

Vikings' turnover troubles vs. Packers' elite ball-hawking

The latest chapter in this NFC North rivalry features playoff ramifications for both teams, with the Vikings trying desperately to remain in the wild-card hunt and the Packers with their eye on overtaking the Detroit Lions for top spot in the division. Once upon a time Minnesota found itself in the driver's seat while Green Bay scuffled - but things have flipped around in a major way, thanks in no small part to a reversal in the turnover department.

Minnesota has lost seven of nine since opening the season with five consecutive victories, as its once-vaunted defense shows cracks while the offense continues to spin its wheels. The Sam Bradford-led attack has managed more than 20 points just twice in the last nine weeks, and had three turnovers in last week's 34-6 debacle against Indianapolis. Minnesota has a -3 turnover differential over the past three weeks, reducing its per-game differential to +0.6 for the season.

The Packers are headed in the opposite direction at just the right time as they look to put a slow start behind them. Green Bay has reeled off four consecutive victories - and while the play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers has played a significant part in that, the Packers' dominance in turnovers has been just as important. Green Bay was a +4 in turnovers in last week's thrilling win over Chicago, and are +10 over their last three weeks. If that trend continues, the Packers should soar Sunday.

Daily fantasy watch: Green Bay D/ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 16 NFL lines are going to move
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to wait on

San Diego at Cleveland (+6) (Saturday)

San Diego’s ownership may be talking about turning out the lights and moving, but the Chargers showed some life in an overtime loss to Oakland last Sunday. San Diego’s reward was a trip to Cleveland, where the Browns’ road to nowhere season plays out its string. More amazing than Cleveland’s 0-14 SU record is the fact that the Brownies have not had a single home cover (0-7) this season. Browns fans are so upset that they have been campaigning for the league to not televise Cleveland games, and instead show Steelers games. Pretty bad. This line may not be done moving, so there’s no harm in holding off.

Total to watch

Tennessee at Jacksonville (44) (Saturday)

The AFC South is fertile ground for any team that can win even two games in a row, and the Titans have surprised everyone with three straight – including stunning back-to-back victories over Denver and Kansas City. And Tennessee has been doing it without putting up a ton of points – the Titans had a total of only 32 in the Broncos/Chiefs parlay. You have to wonder how much offensive game-planning is going on in Jacksonville, where a fed-up management pulled the plug on coach Gus Bradley and gave the keys to Doug Marrone. J-Ville was a chic pick to make some noise in the wide-open South, but never got any traction. The Jags’ underperforming offense combined with the Titans’ still-suspect offense make this one an attractive option for under players.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 16

Last week's underdogs feature brought home some nice profits as three of the five teams suggested (Indianapolis, Carolina, Tennessee) were able to bring home the cash, while Jacksonville and Tampa Bay definitely had their chances to get to the winner's circle as well.

Having said that those five teams would likely go at least 2-3 SU, grabbing a 3-2 SU mark for +$395 (on $100 flat wagers) proved to be a nice little profit and I'll be looking for more of the same in Week 16 from underdogs of +4 or more.

Underdogs That Qualify

Minnesota Vikings (+7); ML (+250)
New York Jets (+16.5); ML (+1150)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5); ML (+185)
Cleveland Browns (+6.5); ML (+230)
Indianapolis Colts (+4); ML (+160)
Arizona Cardinals (+9); ML (+320)
Baltimore Ravens (+4.5); ML (+185)
Denver Broncos (+4); ML (+170)
Detroit Lions (+7); ML (+270)

It's another big list this week with a few teams that will surely get some support, but as always I'll begin with Cleveland. If the Browns are going to avoid being the second franchise in the modern era to avoid going 0-16 SU, this week is their best shot. Next week they will be in Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that will still be fighting for a division title and/or playoff seeding and will make sure to get the job done.

This week, Cleveland plays their final home game of the year against a Chargers team that has to fly cross country and is back to being in complete shambles. If you've got the stones to ride with the Browns one more time, Week 16 will be your best opportunity.

Moving on, the Jets have already folded up shop for 2016 and with New England looking to clinch top spot in the AFC and getting the Jets best punch last time around, there is no need to even consider New York going into Foxboro and winning.

Arizona is in a similar boat being up in Seattle and while the Cardinals have had success in Seattle in the past, 2017 can't come soon enough for that franchise.

Teams on this list that are clinging to their slim playoff hopes include the Vikings, Colts, and Broncos and I would not be surprised to see all three put up strong efforts.

Nobody wants any part of backing Minnesota straight up this week after they were beat up and embarrassed on their own field by the Colts on Sunday, but often times it's those teams that you'd want to back in a spot like this.

The Vikings visit Lambeau Field to take on the rolling Packers and will be desperate to show the NFL world that they are much better then what they showed on film a week ago. As the biggest 'dog of the three in this group, +250 ML odds does have significant value if you've got no problem being in a very small minority.

Denver visits Kansas City in a game that could go either way, but with the Broncos offense being one of the worst in the league right now, it's tough to completely trust them in this spot. KC gave away a golden opportunity at a W last week and would love to end Denver's hopes of repeating.

Indy needs to win out and get plenty of help in the AFC South to see postseason action, but they can only worry about what they can control for now.

A matchup with Oakland is one that actually looks good on paper for the Colts, and with the Raiders achieving their main goal of clinching a playoff spot last week, Indy is a live dog in Week 16.

Speaking of that help the Colts need in the AFC South, getting a Jaguars win over Tennessee this week would be ideal. Jacksonville has lost nine in a row though and gave away the game in Houston on Sunday so they are tough to trust.

But the decision to fire head coach Gus Bradley is one that could spark the entire Jags team during the final two weeks, and while helping Indy isn't high on their priority list, spoiling Tennessee's playoff hopes any way they can would be a happy consequence for the Jags.

Baltimore is in Pittsburgh in a game that will decide the AFC North and will likely be the most popular ML underdog bet on this entire list. Those two teams go to war when they meet up and there is no question either side could win. But being the most popular underdog ML bet isn't necessarily a good thing, and it might be best for your bankroll to stay away from this game altogether in terms of ML options.

Detroit faces Dallas on MNF and that contest sets up similar to the Ravens/Steelers game. Both sides are more than capable of winning, both would love a victory to further their cause, but all in all, staying away from this contest is likely the best option.

Of the nine teams that make this week's list, there aren't as many I'm willing to back as a week ago. Close your eyes, plug your nose, and pray with Cleveland (+230) if you wish, but the three I'm seriously considering are Minnesota (+250), Indianapolis (+160), and cough, Jacksonville (+185) again.

Two of these three should be able to come out on the winning side and throw even more wrinkles into an already crowded and confusing playoff picture heading into the final week of the year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Help in Houston

Tom Savage To Rescue For Texans?

The two biggest news items in the NFL in Week 15 both came out of one of the worst matchups on paper going in: Jacksonville at Houston. That featured two of the lowest-rated and most intercepted quarterbacks in the league this season in the Jaguars' Blake Bortles and Texans' Brock Osweiler. They played to expectations in the game and two jobs were lost because of their performances: those of Jaguars coach Gus Bradley and Osweiler himself.

While you can look for a prop on the next full-time head coach of the downtrodden Jaguars later this week on NFL odds, this will look at Houston's chances going forward behind new starting quarterback Tom Savage.

Houston signed Osweiler this offseason to a four-year, $72 million free-agent deal to leave Denver even though the Texans brass never met with Osweiler personally and he had been uneven in his starts for an injured Peyton Manning in 2015. That contract included $37 million in guaranteed money over the first two years, something the Texans have to regret now.

The Texans were trailing the Jaguars, who entered on an eight-game losing streak, 13-0 in the second quarter when Coach Bill O'Brien pulled Osweiler after he was 6-for-11 for 48 yards and two interceptions in his five drives. Savage, a fourth-round pick in 2014, had attempted just 19 career regular-season passes in his career and not since his rookie year. He spent last season on injured reserve after spraining his shoulder during a preseason game.

But Savage looked very comfortable against the Jaguars in completing 23 of 36 for 260 yards in a 21-20 come-from-behind victory. Not exactly Hall of Fame numbers, but Savage didn't turn the ball over -- Osweiler had 16 picks and three fumbles this year -- and threw for more yards in less than three quarters than Osweiler did in all but two of his games.

On passes thrown 15 yards or more downfield on Sunday, Osweiler was 0-for-2 with two interceptions. Savage was 4-for-8 for 89 yards. Savage also got star receiver DeAndre Hopkins involved. He finished with a season-high 17 targets along with eight catches (second most of season) and 87 yards (also second most).

In a no-brainer move, O'Brien on Monday announced that Savage was his starting quarterback going forward. The coach would have lost the locker room had he gone back to Osweiler. But it's fairly unprecedented for a division leader to make a change this late in the season under center that didn't come due to injury. O'Brien said he chose to name a starter early in the week because he wanted to give Savage the full week to prepare.

O'Brien might be betting his job on this move as the Texans could fire him should they miss the playoffs. He's supposed to be a quarterback guru, but the play at that position has been wildly inconsistent since he was hired from Penn State before the 2014 season.

Houston and Tennessee are tied for the AFC South lead at 8-6. The Texans are opening 2-point favorites for their home game vs. Cincinnati on Christmas Eve night. The Titans are -4.5 in Jacksonville, which will be led by interim coach Doug Marrone the rest of the season.

Houston visits Nashville in Week 17 in a potential winner-take-all game for the division. The Texans are -110 favorites to repeat as South champions with the Titans are +110 and the Indianapolis Colts (7-7) at +1500. Indy needs to win out with Houston losing both its games and Tennessee losing to Jacksonville for the Colts to win the division.

Keep in mind that Houston's NRG Stadium hosts Super Bowl LI and no team has played in a Super Bowl its stadium hosted. The Texans are +3300 to win their first AFC championship.