UFC 205 - Preliminary Picks
By Brian Edwards
The prelims portion of Saturday’s epic UFC 205 card lost a key bout Tuesday when Rashad Evans was forced out of his debut middleweight scrap against Tim Kennedy. The New York Athletic Commission denied Evans a license to compete due to a medical issue. In a statement, the promotion said “there are currently no plans to replace this bout.”
On Thursday, word filtered out that Kennedy and Evans will now tangle in Toronto at UFC 206.
The prelims headliner at Madison Square Garden in New York City will feature New Jersey native Frankie Edgar against Jeremy Stephens. This duo has combined for 43 fights in the promotion with Stephens set to make his 24th walk to the Octagon.
‘The Answer’ is the former lightweight champion who has twice challenged for the featherweight strap. Edgar has lost just twice in the 145-pound loop, including a second decision loss to former featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo at UFC 200 this past July 6.
Edgar (20-5-1 MMA, 14-5-1 UFC) is otherwise unbeaten at 145 with wins over the likes of Charles Oliveira, B.J. Penn, Cub Swanson, Urijah Faber and Chad Mendes. The 35-year-old won the lightweight belt by beating Penn at UFC 112 in April of 2010. Edgar would defend his belt successfully in a rematch with Penn at UFC 118 and then retained the title in a split draw with Gray Maynard at UFC 125.
In a rematch with Maynard at UFC 136, Edgar rallied from an early deficit to score a fourth-round KO win over ‘The Bully.’ However, he lost the belt by dropping a hotly-contested unanimous decision to Benson Henderson at UFC 144. Edgar was given a rematch against Henderson at UFC 150 and I felt he won the bout convincingly, but Henderson was given the split-decision nod.
Since then, Edgar has gone 5-2 at featherweight. He comes to NYC with a No. 2 ranking to take on the seventh-ranked Stephens, who also used to compete in the lightweight division.
As of early Thursday, most books had Edgar installed as a -340 favorite. ‘Little Heathen’ was a +280 underdog, while the total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -215, ‘under’ +175).
Stephens (25-12 MMA, 12-11 UFC) has won five of his eight fights since dropping to 145. He is off a UD win over former bantamweight champ Renan Barao at UFC Fight Night 88 in Las Vegas. Stephens, who was a +145 underdog, took home an extra $50,000 for Fight of the Night honors.
Barao isn’t the only former champion who has tasted defeat against Stephens. When he was competing at 155, Stephens knocked out former lightweight kingpin Rafael dos Anjos in the third round at UFC 91. Stephens has been an underdog 12 times in his career, producing a 5-7 record, but this is the most lucrative ‘dog situation of his 23-fight UFC tenure.
Prediction: Edgar looked a step slow his last time out, but Aldo has the tendency to do that to most fighters. Before that setback, Edgar had looked in prime form during a five-fight winning streak that was capped by a first-round KO of Mendes. Stephens might have the best one-punch KO power in the division, so he has a chance against any foe. Nevertheless, I think Edgar will win a decision, but he’s too expensive to bet on the straight price. I’ll go with a one-unit play on Edgar to win by decision that has a -124 price for the prop wager at 5Dimes.eu.
In the lightweight division, second-ranked Khabib Nurmagomedov will take on sixth-ranked Michael Johnson. As of Thursday, most spots had Nurmagomedov listed as the -290 ‘chalk.’ Johnson is a +240 ‘dog and the total is 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -145, ‘under’ +125).
Nurmagomedov (23-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC) will grace the Octagon for just the second time since winning a unanimous decision over Dos Anjos on April 19 of 2014. The 28-year-old wrestler from Dagestan has dealt with multiple injuries during this span, winning his only fight over late replacement Darrell Horcher by second-round knockout this past April in Tampa.
Nurmagomedov owns wins over Abel Trujillo, Gleison Tibau, Thiago Taveres and Pat Healy. Four of his seven UFC fights have gone the distance.
Johnson (17-10 MMA, 9-6 UFC) is off an impressive first-round KO win over Dustin Poirier in just 95 seconds in the UFC Hidalgo headliner on Sept. 17. Poirier had won four consecutive fights since moving up to lightweight from the 145-pound division.
Johnson ripped off four straight wins over Joe Lauzon, Tibau, Melvin Guillard and Edson Barboza from 2013-2015. This set the 30-year-old St. Louis product up with a bout against Beneil Dariush. Johnson dominated the first two rounds, winning nearly all of the striking exchanges as he moved in and out with superior speed.
In the third and final round, I had Johnson winning again, albeit much closer than in the first two stanzas, to take the contest easily by a 30-27 score. However, in one of the most deplorable decisions in MMA history, Dariush was inexplicably given the split-decision victory.
Next, Johnson agreed to face Nate Diaz in Orlando last December. All three judges gave Johnson the first round, but Diaz took control in the final two rounds and deservedly earned the UD victory (29-28 three times) as a massive underdog in the +300 range. Johnson shook off the back-to-back defeats to beat Poirier, but he’s really on a 6-1 roll in his last seven fights because the loss to Dariush was complete nonsense.
Prediction: This is a classic clash of styles. Johnson, the long-time member of The Blackzilians camp in South Florida, is a terrific boxer with outstanding speed. If – and it’s a monster IF – Johnson can defend the takedown attempts of Nurmagomedov, he should have the advantage when both fighters are standing. It’ll be the opposite if the fight goes to the ground. That’s where Nurmagomedov is probably the best in the division. Six of Johnson’s nine defeats have come by submission, but we should note that he hasn’t tapped out since an April of 2013 loss to Reza Madadi. I think Nurmagomedov potentially gets a submission but more likely wins by decision. Since he’s so ‘chalky,’ though, I’m going to have to pass here.
Tim ‘The Barbarian’ Boetsch will face 14th-ranked Rafael Natal in a middleweight clash. As of Thursday, most spots had Natal installed as a -160 ‘chalk,’ leaving Boetsch as a +130 ‘dog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -185, ‘under’ +160).
Boetsch (19-10 MMA, 10-9 UFC) snapped a three-fight losing streak and most likely dodged a pink slip by defeating the late Josh Samman (RIP) by second-round KO in July. Samman, who passed away a few months later due to a suspected heroine overdose, sustained a broken orbital bone from the ground-and-pound punishment dealt out by Boetsch.
The 35-year-old from Maine won his first four middleweight bouts after dropping down a class in 2011. His victims included Kendall Grove, Nick Ring, Yushin Okami and Hector Lombard. Boetsch scored one of the most memorable comeback wins in UFC history with his third-round KO of Okami at UFC 144 in Saitama, Japan. Okami had dominated the first two stanzas before Boetsch rallied with a slew of thunderous right-hand uppercuts.
In the split-decision victory over Lombard, Boetsch hooked me and his other betting backers with a gorgeous +300 payout. The win over Okami netted his supporters a nasty +375 return. Boetsch owns a 6-4 record in 10 UFC appearances as an underdog. In addition to the outstanding ‘dog tickets won against Oklami and Lombard, he has beaten Samman (+195), Brad Tavares (+260), Grove (+120) and David Heath (+230).
Natal (21-7-1 MMA, 9-5-1 UFC) saw his four-fight winning streak ended in his last outing, a UD loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 197. The 33-year-old Brazilian owns notable career scalps over Travis Lutter, Chris Camozzi, Tom Watson, Uriah Hall and Kevin Casey.
Prediction: The payout on the ‘under’ looks attractive, but we aren’t going there since 13 of Natal’s 15 UFC fights have made it into the third round. I’ll go with one unit on Boetsch for the +130 payout.
The lid-lifter on Fox Sports 1 will get started at 8:00 p.m. Eastern when welterweights Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad will tangle. As of Thursday, most books had Muhammad (10-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) listed as a -145 ‘chalk,’ while Luque is the +125 ‘dog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -200, ‘under’ +170).
I was at MGM Grand Garden Arena when Muhammad and Alan Jouban waged the Fight of the Night this past July in Las Vegas. Jouban won a narrow UD, but Muhammad nearly got a finish late in the third round when he had Jouban rocked and in trouble. Muhammad bounced back with a third-round KO of Augusto Montano in Hidalgo.
Luque (10-5-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) has posted three straight wins since losing a UD to Michael Graves in his Octagon debut on July 12 of 2015. Since then, Luque has a pair of submission finishes over Hayder Hassan and Alvaro Herrera, in addition to a 60-second KO of Hector Urbina his last time out in September. He garnered a pair of Performance of the Night bonuses with his wins over Hassan and Urbina.
Prediction: Seven of Luque’s 10 career wins have come via first-round finishes. Two other victories came by second-round finishes. I’ll go with one unit on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for the +170 return.
The Early Prelims can been seen on UFC FightPass only. The opener features former women’s bantamweight title challenger Liz Carmouche up against Katlyn Chookagian at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. As of Thursday, most books had Chookagian listed as a -170 favorite, while Carmouche was the +145 ‘dog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -220, ‘under’ +180). I’ll pass on this 135-pound women’s scrap.
Next, a pair of lightweight veterans will collide when New Jersey native Jim Miller meets Thiago Alves. As of Thursday, most books had Alves as a -160 favorite with Miller as the +140 ‘dog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -150, ‘under’ +130).
Miller (27-8-1 MMA, 16-7-1 UFC) will be living a dream at MGS when he makes his 25th walk to the Octagon. He is looking for a third consecutive win after scoring a first-round KO of Takanori Gomi at UFC 200 before capturing a controversial split-decision triumph over Lauzon. Miller’s most notable career wins have come over Guillard, Danny Castillo, Charles Oliveira, Mark Bocek, Duane Ludwig, Mac Danzig and Matt Wiman.
Alves (21-10 MMA, 13-7 UFC) is making his lightweight debut in this fight, which is something to keep an eye on here. Obviously, as I’m posting this preview on Thursday, we don’t yet know how Alves will handle his weight cut, but let’s remember that he missed weight twice during his time at 170. Even if he does make weight, it’ll be interesting to see how Alves’s cardio is impacted come fight night.
Alves, a 33-year-old Brazilian who fights for American Top Team, once challenged Georges St. Pierre for his welterweight strap, only to lose a UD at UFC 100. ‘The Pitbull’ owns notable career wins over the likes of Jordan Mein, John Howard, Josh Koscheck, UFC Hall of Famer Matt Hughes, Chris Lytle, Karo Parisyan and Marcus Davis.
Prediction: Miller will be giving away a lot of size in this bout, but he’s used to that. The grizzled veteran can win a fight with his striking or his submissions. Mainly due to the questions I have about Alves fighting at 155, I’ll go with Miller for one unit for the +140 payout.
