EPL Best Bets - Week 10
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
All eyes this weekend will be on the Etihad Stadium as Manchester City and Manchester United battle it out for local bragging rights. United come into this game with a better chance than they might have done a few weeks ago, while City need to keep up with Chelsea, who lead the Premier League by six points. The Blues face a home West London derby with QPR, while Arsenal face bottom of the table Burnley.
Saturday's early match sees a rejuvenated Newcastle, fresh from a League Cup win at Manchester City, take on faltering Liverpool.
Let's handicap Week 10 of the Premier League.
The Banker: One or Both Teams Not To Score at Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur at 5/6
The second match on Sunday is certainly the less appealing of the two games that day. Aston Villa face Spurs at Villa Park with both teams looking to recapture some good early season form after a dreadful last few weeks. It has been particularly awful for Villa, who have lost their last five without scoring, and conceding 13. The first four were all against strong teams, but their most recent result was a lifeless 2-0 defeat to fellow strugglers QPR. The boys from Birmingham have scored just four goals all season, the lowest tally in the league.
Spurs surrendered a lead to lose 2-1 to Newcastle last time out. The Pochettino revolution has been a slow burner, and the general feeling is that, while Tottenham have always been known for a leaky defence, they are unusually blunt going forward this year. The best bet here is taking the 5/6 on one or both teams not to score. This has come in for eight of Villa's nine games, and for five of Spurs's fixtures. A low-scoring encounter between two teams short of confidence looks likely.
The Solid Bet: West Ham United Draw No Bet at Stoke City at 6/5
West Ham's recent form means they should be vying much more closely for favouritism than the odds suggest on their trip to Staffordshire to face Stoke City. West Ham are 9/4 to win the match with Stoke 11/8 shots. After a disappointing campaign last time out, West Ham now sit fourth in the Premier League with four wins from their last five. An injury to prolific striker Diafra Sakho may hold their progress back on Saturday, but they are too long in the betting to be ignored.
Stoke were tipped by many to be one of the 'best of the rest' after a promising first campaign under Mark Hughes in 2013-14. However some of the optimism has dissipated. They have lost in two competitions to rampant Southampton in the last week, while they were extremely fortunate to get the better of Swansea in their last home league game.
Both these sides are traditionally low-scoring, and the result of this last year was a 1-0 win for West Ham. That lack of goals leads me to the Draw No Bet market (money back if it's a draw) and to West Ham at 6/5.
The Outsider: Newcastle United to beat Liverpool at 14/5
Three weeks ago Newcastle manager Alan Pardew looked a dead man walking. However three wins and a draw later, and Newcastle look a great prospect at 11/4 to defeat Liverpool in Saturday's early kick-off on Tyneside. While it was a weakened side that defied odds of 9/1 to beat Manchester City in the League Cup, that result will have given huge confidence to the squad. The Newcastle team should be more similar to the one that won at Spurs last Sunday.
There is nothing to suggest that Liverpool merit their evens quotes here. They scraped past Swansea in the League Cup on Wednesday and made fewer changes to their line-up than Newcastle. They were pretty useless in a 0-0 draw with Hull City in their last league game, and scraped past strugglers QPR and West Brom in their other two. Much of the spark from Liverpool's attack has departed with Luis Suarez, while the defence is just as bad as last year. The likelihood of goals makes me cautious of the Draw No Bet market, so I'm much happier backing the 14/5 Magpies as a straight win.
The First Goalscorer: Sergio Aguero for Manchester City against Manchester United at 4/1
This weekend's key game is the Manchester derby on Sunday. A month ago, the question on most people's lips was 'how many are City going to score?', but since then the blue half of Manchester have been struggling, with consecutive defeats to West Ham and Newcastle, as well as a morale-sapping 2-2 draw at CSKA Moscow, while Manchester United have hit a bit of form. While Chelsea probably deserved more than a point at Old Trafford, United's morale was given a massive shot in the arm by Robin van Persie's last minute equaliser.
However United's recent record against City is woeful and, for all City's problems, they still have a mencacing attack, and United still have a weak defence. City have eased from 8/11 to 10/11 to win the match, but the prospect of Sergio Aguero facing a defence of Marcos Rojo and Chris Smalling should be encouragement enough for those confident in City's ability. Aguero has netted nine goals in nine games, and scored all four in City's 4-1 home win against Spurs. He looks worth an interest at 4/1 to break the deadlock.
