Saturday 10/24/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Scott602]

NC Sports PowerSweep College "GOM"..TIA

 

[superbeets]

Championship TODAY 12:30

Blackburn

v

Burnley

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BLACKBURN	RECENT FORM
ADHWADHWALHD​ Most recent​	1 - 2 1 - 1 3 - 2 2 - 1	HWADHLAWHWAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Blackburn have only won two of their 12 league games this season

EXPERT VERDICT: This local derby should be entertaining and backing both teams to score looks to be the best bet. Burnley have scored 17 times already this campaign and have failed to notch on only two occasions, although the Clarets have kept only one away clean sheet.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
3


REFEREE: Keith Stroud STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Premier League TODAY 15:00

Leicester

v

C Palace

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT LEICESTER	RECENT FORM
HWADHD*HLAWAD​ Most recent​	0 - 1 1 - 2 3 - 0 1 - 1	HLALHWAWHWHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Leicester have scored at least two goals in each of their last five league games

EXPERT VERDICT: There have been 36 goals in eight Premier League games involving Leicester and the entertainment is unlikely to stop when Crystal Palace visit. The Eagles won 3-1 at Norwich and 2-1 at Chelsea and Alan Pardew may try to out-shoot the Foxes rather than contain them.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
4


REFEREE: Mike Dean STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Premier League TODAY 15:00

Norwich

v

West Brom

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT NORWICH	RECENT FORM
HWADHWADHLAL​ Most recent​	3 - 0 0 - 1 4 - 0 0 - 1	HDAWALHLALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Norwich have not kept a clean sheet this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Norwich have looked good going forward but their defensive frailties were ruthlessly exposed by in a 6-2 defeat at Newcastle. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet this season so both teams to score looks an attractive price. West Brom are far from hotshots but they are capable of notching at Carrow Road.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
2


REFEREE: Kevin Friend STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Premier League TODAY 15:00

Aston Villa

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Swansea

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ASTON VILLA	RECENT FORM
ALHLHWALHLAL​ Most recent​	0 - 1 1 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 2	ALHDALALHDHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Villa have picked up only one point in four league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Reports that Tim Sherwood is fighting to save his job will intensify if Aston Villa, still without a home win, fail to beat Swansea. And although the Swans are winless in their last four away games, they are playing better than recent results suggest and could hammer the final nail into Sherwood’s coffin.

RECOMMENDATION: Swansea
2


REFEREE: Neil Swarbrick STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Premier League TODAY 15:00

Stoke

v

Watford

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT STOKE	RECENT FORM
ALHDAWHWAWAW​ Most recent​	0 - 0 0 - 3 0 - 1 3 - 1	ALHWAWHLADHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Watford have lost just three of their nine league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Watford have looked a solid side upon their return to the top flight, losing only to Manchester City, Crystal Palace and Arsenal, and they are capable of picking up more points at the Britannia. Stoke invested in decent players this summer but they look a little too short to take maximum points.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Martin Atkinson STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Premier League TODAY 15:00

Stoke

v

Watford

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT STOKE	RECENT FORM
ALHDAWHWAWAW​ Most recent​	0 - 0 0 - 3 0 - 1 3 - 1	ALHWAWHLADHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Watford have lost just three of their nine league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Watford have looked a solid side upon their return to the top flight, losing only to Manchester City, Crystal Palace and Arsenal, and they are capable of picking up more points at the Britannia. Stoke invested in decent players this summer but they look a little too short to take maximum points.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Martin Atkinson STADIUM:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE GAVAZZI

Western Kentucky +16.5

W. Kentucky visits LSU for this non-conference game at 7:00 ET Saturday evening as televised on ESPNU. Each of these teams is off to a 4-0 SU start in their respective conference action. But only one of these teams will consider this game to be of higher priority than their opponent! That is a W. Kentucky team from the lesser respected CUSA Conference who will have this contest against an SEC opponent circled on their calendar as the most important remaining game of their season.The Hilltoppers will be solidly favored in their remaining 4 league games vs. ODU, Florida Atlantic, Florida Int’l and Marshall. For LSU, they enter today following a win over a respected Florida team. The last 4 games on their SEC slate are Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.This game clearly has the lowest priority for LSU 11th year HC Miles. Last week, LSU squeezed by Florida (35-28). Behind Heisman hopeful RB Fournette, LSU ran for 221 yards (the 6th game in which they have rambled for that amount). Equally impressive is that, in consecutive weeks, LSU has now passed for more than 200 yards. But, their bread and butter is on the ground, where they average 327/7.0. Yes, they will do business against a W. Kentucky defensive front allowing 174/4.5. Last week, W. Kentucky rolled to a 55-28 victory vs. outmanned N. Texas. They recorded 683 yards of offense. It was the 6th consecutive week that the Hilltoppers have gained more than 500 yards and the 6th consecutive week that behind QB Doughty, threw for 400 or more yards. Doughty is now averaging 387 PYPG with a 24/4 ratio. W. Kentucky has a strong history in this role with a 5-1 ATS mark when taking 10 or more and a 5-1 ATS mark against SEC foes. We can all agree that W. Kentucky 2nd year HC Brohm will have some special tricks for the LSU defense. This play has a lot going for it! It starts with the huge situational advantage for the big dog and includes a strong history in the respective roles of each team, as well as perhaps the most important aspect of this play … value in the betting line. How often do you get to play a team, who is on a 5-game winning streak, 6-1 SU for the season and 5-2 ATS with a positive net AFP of (+76) AND STILL GET TO TAKE THE SAME NUMBER YOU WOULD OPENING WEEK against an opponent who is 2-3 ATS with a (-19) AFP? That last fact puts the ODDS in our favor!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE COKIN

SOUTH ALABAMA +3.5

Here’s a game with zero marquee appeal. In terms of quality, South Alabama at Texas State is arguably the worst game on the entire Saturday FBS board. The good news is the money doesn’t care. It spends exactly the same whether you win it on a matchup between two great squads, or a game like this.

Texas State has had a turbulent campaign. The Bobcats had their defensive coordinator call it a day a few weeks back, and there might not be a team that has had more injuries than this one. An astonishing number of players have been lost due to ACL injuries and let’s face it, depth is generally not a strong suit when it comes to lower level Sun Belt Conference entries.

The Bobcats will be slightly healthier on defense this weekend as a few of the walking wounded are expected to return. But now they’re banged up on the other side of the ball. I have no idea why this happens, but it does, and this has just been one of those cursed campaigns health-wise for Texas State.

South Alabama is off a total collapse in the fourth quarter of a game with Arkansas State. The Jaguars appeared on their way to picking up their fourth victory when they jumped out to a 31-20 early final quarter lead. Then they fell apart and got outscored 29-0 the rest of the way.

Word is the South Alabama players have responded well to that disappointment and are vowing to not let it happen again here. If that’s the case, the Jaguars should be in good shape to get a win.

My power ratings show the visitors as the better team. While it’s by no means a blowout on those numbers, there’s at least an edge. I think it’s also worth noting that South Alabama has actually played its best football on the road this season. The win at San Diego State was particularly impressive for a team at this level. The yardage comparison also indicates the Jaguars are superior to Texas State.

By all accounts, this figures to be a very competitive duel. South Alabama is the better football team but I’ve got them at #112 out of 129 FBS teams, so maybe I ought to say they’re less terrible than Texas State. That said, the Jaguars have a legit chance to win as many as seven games if they can win this one. South Alabama still has home dates with Idaho and UL Lafayette plus a visit to Georgia State. Those are all winnable games and there’s therefore plenty of incentive for the Jaguars to get this one on the right side of the ledger. Texas State would like to just win a game against someone in the FBS. The only Bobcats victory to date was against FCS member Prairie View.

It’s a lesser of two evils type of game to be sure, but I’ll be trusting my numbers here and with South Alabama still catching more than a field goal as I’m writing this, the Jaguars are on my Saturday ticket.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Raphael Esparza

Take Parke (-300) over Madadi

On paper this looks like easy pickings with Reza Madadi over Norman Parke but hold your horses because this UFC fight is in the backyard of Norman Parke, Dublin Ireland. Stormin' Norman has not fought like a storm because he has dropped back-to-back fights, and in his last 4 fights he is 1-2-1. Reza Madadi is coming off a big win in his last fight over Michael Johnson, but Saturday I see Madadi struggling against Stormin' Norman and the Irish crowd cheering for Parke. Yes I know this looks like another bad loss for Parke, but what I'm hearing from his training for this fight I see Norman kicking his losing streak behind and finally winning in the octagon. The Dublin crowd will give Norman Parke the extra gear in this fight, and I see him winning by decision.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alan Harris

Texas Tech / Oklahoma Over 76

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet on Saturday afternoon when the Texas Tech Red Raiders travel to take on the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK. The Red Raiders have posted a 9-2 record to the over in their last 11 road games where they faced a team with a winning record at home and they have gone over the posted total in 20 of their last 28 games following a straight up win. The Sooners have been an over team as well in the spot we find them in here on Saturday afternoon as they have gone 7-1 to the over in their last eight games played in the month of October and they have an excellent 20-8-1 record to the over in their last 29 Big 12 Conference games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five head to head meetings in Norman and that's where we'll have our play in game that we see turning into an old fashioned Big 12 shoot-out in Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jason Sharpe

Indiana +16.5

The Michigan State Spartans had a miracle win last week over their in-state rivals to go to 7-0 overall on the season. It was an emotional victory for MSU who now have to turn around and go up against which should be an angry opponent just a week later. MSU has found a way to get the job done this season, but it's obvious that this team isn't as good as everyone expected them to be before this year started. In fact the Spartans are just 1-6 against the spread in those first 7 games this year. None of their first 7 victories have come by more than 13 points, and we are looking a point spread here of nearly 17 points here in this one. MSU played a very solid defensive game last week and a lot of that had to do with Michigan's offense being more of a North/South type of offense, an area the Spartans are exceptionally strong at defending. Their opponent here in this one though is much different as the Indiana Hoosiers are more of an East/West type of offense and that can give the MSU defense fits trying to defend against it. The Hoosiers come in off a heartbreaking loss last week where they let a 25-point lead slip away late and lost their homecoming game on a last second field goal. It was a demoralizing loss for Indiana, who started the season off with four straight wins but they have now lost their last three coming into this one. I expect a full out effort here from what should be a motivated Hoosiers team looking to redeem itself after last week's awful loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TEDDY COVERS

USC -3½

Many recreational bettors were very surprised to see unranked USC favored at home over undefeated, Top 5 ranked Utah. And with the pointspread holding with the Trojans favored by more than a field goal, it proves once again that the ‘public’ does NOT affect the overall betting marketplace in college football very much. All the sharp $$ here is on the Trojans.

There are two key factors in play that put me on the ‘wiseguy’ side of this betting equation. First, USC is just fine, even after their bad fourth quarter at Notre Dame last week. The Trojans have clearly responded well to the departure of head coach Steve Sarkisian, embracing his replacement Clay Helton. Helton isn’t a lame duck, focused on sending out resumes – he’s angling for the full time job. That ensures proper focus from both the staff and their players.

The Trojans outgained Notre Dame by more than 100 yards last week. They were aggressive, not passive, on both sides of the football. A pair of fourth quarter turnovers doomed their chances for the SU and ATS win, but make no mistake about it –this loaded roster still has their sights set on the PAC-12 South title, which is well within their grasp IF they can knock off the Utes this week. Expect Southern Cal’s ‘A” game here.

Utah has beaten Michigan, Oregon, Cal and Arizona State already, compiling a resume worthy of a Top 5 team. But when it comes to the overall talent level on hand, Utah’s not a Top 5 team. When you grade out the Utes personnel against that of the Trojans, USC has the superior athletes at virtually every position.

USC is in revenge for a three point loss in Salt Lake City last year, a game in which they outgained the Utes. Utah’s only recent visit to the Rose Bowl wasn’t pretty – they managed only a field goal. And the Utes 19 turnovers created defensively through their first six games have left them with better looking final scores than their yardage statistics would indicate; hence the ‘surprising’ pointspread range here. No surprise for this bettor if the Trojans win this one rather comfortably…

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oskeim Sports

Kansas St +7

We are getting a tremendous amount of value on Kansas State based upon the team's disparate results over the last couple of weeks. Texas shocked Oklahoma 24-17 as 16-point underdogs prior to its bye week, whereas the Wildcats are coming off an embarrassing 55-0 loss to the same Oklahoma squad.

Amateur sports bettors generally overreact to short-term variance and only like to remember what they saw last (or what happened last). And, what they saw last was Texas pull an epic upset over the Sooners, while Kansas State was humiliated in front of its home crowd.

Kansas State takes the field with a subpar offense that is averaging 30.3 points and 325 total yards per game at 4.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play. Kansas State's attack is successful at controlling the clock (32:38 time of possession) and it's relatively efficient, averaging 10.7 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow 13.4 yards per point.

The Wildcats' offense has been productive on the road this season, averaging 32.0 points and 384 total yards per game at 5.7 yards per play and 12.0 yards per point. Kansas State has also controlled the clock away from home (34:49 time of possession) and is averaging 9.4 yards per pass play.

The Wildcats' should have success moving the ball against a poor Texas stop unit that is yielding 34.7 points and 469 total yards per game in 2015. Even more alarming is the fact that the Longhorns are giving up 34.3 points and 468 total yards per game at home.

Let's also note that opposing quarterbacks are completing 67.5% of their pass attempts at 8.5 yards per pass play against the Longhorns' porous secondary. Kansas State possesses a decent stop unit that is allowing 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yards per play.

However, the Wildcats' defense has excelled on foreign soil where they have allowed just 19.5 points and 5.0 yards per play this season. The strength of Kansas State's defense is its secondary, which has been 0.7 yards per pass play better than average (7.6 yards per pass play to teams that combine to average 8.3 yards per pass play).

Whether it's on the ground or through the air, I don't see Texas having much success moving the chains against a solid Kansas State stop unit. What makes the Wildcats a good sports pick is the favorable technical analysis. Kansas State is 9-1 ATS after allowing more than 35 points, while head coach Bill Snyder is 27-8 ATS off back-to-back losses (the last defeat by double-digits).

Kansas State is also 18-1 ATS as a conference underdog off a SU and ATS loss under coach Snyder, including going a perfect 17-0 ATS in its last 17 in this scenario. Finally, coach Snyder is a perfect 12-0 ATS off a loss of 28 or more points during his tenure in Manhattan.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach

*1* on UNDER in Oregon State vs Colorado @ 10:30 PM ET Saturday

This total is up in the range of a 60 and that seems quite high when you look at what Oregon State's offense is doing this season. The Beavers are averaging just 21.7 points per game this season. The average yards per game for Oregon State's offense this season is 332.7 yards. The Beavers have particularly struggled to move the ball through the air and I look for the Buffaloes defense to take advantage of this and put 8 men in the box and challenge the Beavers to try and beat them through the air. No matter how you look at it the Oregon State offense is indeed a question mark and they are quite likely to struggle to move the ball here. If you think the Beavers may simply be able to take advantage just because they are facing a weak foe, you may want to rethink that. The Beavers are 24-14 to the under in their last 38 games against teams with a losing record. As for Colorado, they are a perfect 3-0 to the under in their last 3 games against teams with a losing record. The Buffaloes also are 5-1 to the under in their last 6 games as a road dog of 3 points or less. The Beavers are a small home favorite here for a reason. This is likely going to be a tight, low-scoring game and that trend for under players is likely to improve to 6-1 to the under. *1* Free Pick on UNDER total in Oregon State Saturday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC Fight Night 76

UFC Fight Night 76: Poirier vs. Duffy
Saturday, October 24th – 4:00 p.m. ET
Dublin, Ireland

Dustin Poirier(18-4-0) vs. Joe Duffy (14-1-0)
Five Round Lightweight Bout
Line: Poirier +180, Duffy -225

American Dustin Poirier takes on the Ireland-born Joe Duffy in Dublin.

Dustin Poirier, a Louisiana native, has a career MMA record of 18-4-0. He made his professional debut in 2009, and fought his first UFC bout in 2011. He compiled a 7-0-0 record before suffering his first defeat, and has never lost two consecutive fights on the circuit.

The 26-year-old American has won his two most recent fights, but perhaps his most notable UFC result was a defeat against Conor McGregor in September of 2014. Half of Poirier’s 18 victories have come via knockout, an impressive number for the 155-pounder.

His opponent, Justin Duffy, has only four knockout victories to his name, but is still a more-than-capable fighter. He began his MMA career in 2008, racked up ten consecutive wins before suffering his first defeat, and has not lost since.

Duffy signed with UFC just this year, and has won both of his UFC fights in the first round. The 27-year-old Irishman will like his chances, especially in front of a hometown crowd in Dublin.

Poirier is a very solid boxer, and has averaged 4.65 significant strikes per minute at an impressive accuracy of over 50 percent.

His strike defense, however, is not the best, as he absorbs 3.21 significant strikes per minute and defends these strikes at a rate of just 57.83 percent. In terms of grappling, Poirier has averaged 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes at 32.43 percent clip, and has defended takedowns at a rate of 65.71 percent.

He has also averaged a relatively low 1.68 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Duffy, on the other hand, has averaged a solid 3.08 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He has yet to attempt a takedown in his MMA career, but has also defended takedowns impeccably at a 100 percent rate.

He has averaged 4.73 significant strikes per minute, but at a rate of just 33.33 percent.

His defense, however, is better than that of Poirier, as he absorbs just 2.67 significant strikes per minute and defends them at a 65.79 percent clip. 1711749

Other UFC FightNight 76 Odds

Heavyweight Bout:
Stipe Miocic -340
Ben Rothwell +280

Welterweight Bout:
Nicolas Dalby -135
Darren Till +115

Flyweight Bout:
Patrick Holohan -105
Louis Smolka -115

Lightweight Bout:
Norman Parke -275
Reza Madadi +235

Lightweight Bout:
Stevie Ray -430
Mickael Lebout +310

Flyweight Bout:
Neil Seery -150
Jon Delos Reyes +120

Middleweight Bout:
Scott Askham OFF
Krzysztof Jotko OFF

Women's Strawweight Bout:
Aisling Daly -140
Ericka Almeida +100

Welterweight Bout:
Cathal Pendred +170
Tom Breese -230

Featherweight Bout:
Darren Elkins -180
Robert Whiteford +140

Middleweight Bout:
Bubba Bush -245
Garreth McLellan +175

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Western Kentucky.

Edges - Hilltoppers: 6-1 ATS versus foe off BB SUATS wins; and 5-1 ATS as double-digit dogs; and 5-1-1 ATS versus SEC opponents. Tigers: Les Miles 3-14-1 ATS as a home favorite of less than 20 points off consecutive wins. With double-digit dogs who manage to score 20 or more points in the game a resounding 468-173-6 ATS, I certainly don’t want to fade that… and I won’t We recommend a 1* play on Western Kentucky. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FREDDY WILLS

USC -3

As you well know I gave out the Trojans last week as our top play at Notre Dame, and still believe they should have covered that spread, but now we get more value with them at home. I'm a huge supporter of Utah throughout the years, but this seems like the logical time and place to sell on the Utes. Actually this line just does not make sense with an undefeated Top 5 ranked team coming in to play a USC 3-3 team. Utah even beat USC a year ago, so it's a real head scratcher to many on why they would be favored, but I think this is the game that USC is able to play up to their potential finally. Utah has not really been that great, they got Oregon without their starting QB, they got Michigan in their first game of the year (barely held on), and barely beat Cal despite forcing 6 turnovers. I wanted to wait to see how Cal looked against UCLA last night, and the fact that UCLA was able to win comfortably makes me feel even better about USC in this game. In order for Utah to win this game they will need to win the TO battle big again, because the talent gap is too much. USC only 7 turnovers this year, and are back at home and should settle in better with the new coaching situation.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE WIZ

UTEP +7 over Florida Atlantic