San Diego State vs Air Force 10/23/2021

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with San Diego State winning 48% of simulations, and Air Force 52% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. San Diego State commits fewer turnovers in 10% of simulations and they go on to win 63% when they take care of the ball. Air Force wins 60% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Jesse Matthews is averaging 102 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (34% chance) then he helps his team win 61%. DeAndre Hughes is averaging 146 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (39% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is AF -4.5 --- Over/Under line is 40.5
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