Went 5-1 or 6-1 last time then skipped a week. This stuff is too time consuming but I toughed it out to get a full card in. Best of luck to you all.
Leans:
Oklahoma -16.5
Kentucky -21
NM State +7
NM State/Troy u63.5
Purdue +21
WMU +2
Oregon -2.5
NC State -3
Oklahoma State/Kansas o48.5
Kansas +21
Plays:
Rice -1
Owls did well against teams who run the ball a ton last year. Rice should move the ball at will against this weak Army defense.
MTSU +24
MTSU/Marshall o70.5
Marshall can pretty much score 40+ on everybody this year and MTSU's defense has given up 30+ against lesser defenses. MTSU has a very nice offense themselves and I'm not sold on Marshall's defense being as good as they have shown. Team is still very good but it's tough to hold the Blue Raiders to less than 30 which makes this high spread tough to cover for the Herd.
TCU +8
Wrong team is favored. TCU was easy money against Oklahoma last week and will beat a weaker Baylor team even easier. The Bears' defense isn't good. They've just played garbage offenses and people are tricked. TCU has a legit elite defense and should slow down Baylor. Maybe even hold them under 30. I'll say 35-34 Horned Frogs.
Alabama -9
Don't see any way Arkansas hangs in this one. Razorbacks rely on the run to move the ball and they won't have it here at all. Lots of passing turnovers, they won't be in comfort zone. Arkansas defense not good enough to stop an offense like Alabama that is much improved. Tide by 3 touchdowns or so sounds right.
Idaho +24.5
Line is so far off from mine I should probably just lay off but I'm dumb so I'm playing it. Vandals in year 3 of Petrino offense. Can score on many teams. Georgia Southern just gave up 28 to New Mexico State who offensively is about the same as Idaho in terms of scoring potential. GSU will put up near 40 against Idaho without too much trouble but no way do they deserve to be this large of a favorite against a team that can score on them.
Ole Miss +3
Wrong team is favored here too. Texas A&M's offense isn't going to run nearly as smoothly against one of the top defenses in college football. Don't get me wrong... Aggies will still score 24-31 against just about anyone but it won't be enough. Ole Miss offense should up up 27-34 and I'm leaning closer to 34 since A&M hasn't looked good defensively against some of the more capable offenses. I had Ole Miss winning the SEC in the preseason so I love this team and think they are better on both sides of the ball in this matchup.
LSU/Florida o47
LSU +1.5
Florida's defense is strong yet again but LSU has proven twice this season they can put up around 30 against quality defenses. Team went to shit last week but Gators defense isn't on Auburn's level IMO. Gators can run and pass effectively as well and LSU's defense has given up 34+ against the 2 balanced offenses they've faced. LSU is stronger offensively with defenses being about even and I think both teams can put up 24 or more which will get our over in. 31-24 LSU.
Leans:
Oklahoma -16.5
Kentucky -21
NM State +7
NM State/Troy u63.5
Purdue +21
WMU +2
Oregon -2.5
NC State -3
Oklahoma State/Kansas o48.5
Kansas +21
Plays:
Rice -1
Owls did well against teams who run the ball a ton last year. Rice should move the ball at will against this weak Army defense.
MTSU +24
MTSU/Marshall o70.5
Marshall can pretty much score 40+ on everybody this year and MTSU's defense has given up 30+ against lesser defenses. MTSU has a very nice offense themselves and I'm not sold on Marshall's defense being as good as they have shown. Team is still very good but it's tough to hold the Blue Raiders to less than 30 which makes this high spread tough to cover for the Herd.
TCU +8
Wrong team is favored. TCU was easy money against Oklahoma last week and will beat a weaker Baylor team even easier. The Bears' defense isn't good. They've just played garbage offenses and people are tricked. TCU has a legit elite defense and should slow down Baylor. Maybe even hold them under 30. I'll say 35-34 Horned Frogs.
Alabama -9
Don't see any way Arkansas hangs in this one. Razorbacks rely on the run to move the ball and they won't have it here at all. Lots of passing turnovers, they won't be in comfort zone. Arkansas defense not good enough to stop an offense like Alabama that is much improved. Tide by 3 touchdowns or so sounds right.
Idaho +24.5
Line is so far off from mine I should probably just lay off but I'm dumb so I'm playing it. Vandals in year 3 of Petrino offense. Can score on many teams. Georgia Southern just gave up 28 to New Mexico State who offensively is about the same as Idaho in terms of scoring potential. GSU will put up near 40 against Idaho without too much trouble but no way do they deserve to be this large of a favorite against a team that can score on them.
Ole Miss +3
Wrong team is favored here too. Texas A&M's offense isn't going to run nearly as smoothly against one of the top defenses in college football. Don't get me wrong... Aggies will still score 24-31 against just about anyone but it won't be enough. Ole Miss offense should up up 27-34 and I'm leaning closer to 34 since A&M hasn't looked good defensively against some of the more capable offenses. I had Ole Miss winning the SEC in the preseason so I love this team and think they are better on both sides of the ball in this matchup.
LSU/Florida o47
LSU +1.5
Florida's defense is strong yet again but LSU has proven twice this season they can put up around 30 against quality defenses. Team went to shit last week but Gators defense isn't on Auburn's level IMO. Gators can run and pass effectively as well and LSU's defense has given up 34+ against the 2 balanced offenses they've faced. LSU is stronger offensively with defenses being about even and I think both teams can put up 24 or more which will get our over in. 31-24 LSU.
