Sagarin System for NCAA football

FrankieCarbone · Sep 30, 2008

Trying to find value in each game by comparing the sagarin rating line vs. the vegas line. I'm going to list all plays I think have value based on sagarin, but only going to play the ones that are a 6 or higher.

<meta http-equiv="CONTENT-TYPE" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><title></title><meta name="GENERATOR" content="OpenOffice.org 2.4 (Win32)"><style>  </style> <table rules="none" border="0" cellspacing="0" cols="4" frame="void"> <colgroup><col width="122"><col width="86"><col width="86"><col width="86"></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td width="122" align="left" height="18">Team</td> <td width="86" align="left">Sagarin Line</td> <td width="86" align="left">Actual Line</td> <td width="86" align="left">Value</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Middle Tennessee</td> <td sdval="-7.42" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-7.42</td> <td sdval="-3" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-3</td> <td sdval="4.42" sdnum="1033;" align="right">4.42</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Minnesota</td> <td sdval="-16.66" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-16.66</td> <td sdval="-7" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-7</td> <td sdval="9.66" sdnum="1033;" align="right">9.66</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Virginia</td> <td sdval="8.98" sdnum="1033;" align="right">8.98</td> <td sdval="13.5" sdnum="1033;" align="right">13.5</td> <td sdval="4.52" sdnum="1033;" align="right">4.52</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Iowa State</td> <td sdval="7" sdnum="1033;" align="right">7</td> <td sdval="13" sdnum="1033;" align="right">13</td> <td sdval="6" sdnum="1033;" align="right">6</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Duke</td> <td sdval="8.66" sdnum="1033;" align="right">8.66</td> <td sdval="14" sdnum="1033;" align="right">14</td> <td sdval="5.34" sdnum="1033;" align="right">5.34</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Vanderbilt</td> <td sdval="-5.55" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-5.55</td> <td sdval="4" sdnum="1033;" align="right">4</td> <td sdval="9.55" sdnum="1033;" align="right">9.55</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Western Michigan</td> <td sdval="-13.51" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-13.51</td> <td sdval="-5" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-5</td> <td sdval="8.51" sdnum="1033;" align="right">8.51</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Michigan</td> <td sdval="-7.32" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-7.32</td> <td sdval="-2.5" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-2.5</td> <td sdval="4.82" sdnum="1033;" align="right">4.82</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Colorado</td> <td sdval="8.97" sdnum="1033;" align="right">8.97</td> <td sdval="14" sdnum="1033;" align="right">14</td> <td sdval="5.03" sdnum="1033;" align="right">5.03</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">California</td> <td sdval="-15.98" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-15.98</td> <td sdval="-9.5" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-9.5</td> <td sdval="6.48" sdnum="1033;" align="right">6.48</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Arkansas</td> <td sdval="15.85" sdnum="1033;" align="right">15.85</td> <td sdval="24.5" sdnum="1033;" align="right">24.5</td> <td sdval="8.65" sdnum="1033;" align="right">8.65</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">SMU</td> <td sdval="7.49" sdnum="1033;" align="right">7.49</td> <td sdval="14" sdnum="1033;" align="right">14</td> <td sdval="6.51" sdnum="1033;" align="right">6.51</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Washington State</td> <td sdval="12.11" sdnum="1033;" align="right">12.11</td> <td sdval="17" sdnum="1033;" align="right">17</td> <td sdval="4.89" sdnum="1033;" align="right">4.89</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Washington</td> <td sdval="14.89" sdnum="1033;" align="right">14.89</td> <td sdval="21" sdnum="1033;" align="right">21</td> <td sdval="6.11" sdnum="1033;" align="right">6.11</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Northern Illinois</td> <td sdval="8.15" sdnum="1033;" align="right">8.15</td> <td sdval="15.5" sdnum="1033;" align="right">15.5</td> <td sdval="7.35" sdnum="1033;" align="right">7.35</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Ball State</td> <td sdval="-16.45" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-16.45</td> <td sdval="-7.5" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-7.5</td> <td sdval="8.95" sdnum="1033;" align="right">8.95</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Akron</td> <td sdval="-9.79" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-9.79</td> <td sdval="-3.5" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-3.5</td> <td sdval="6.29" sdnum="1033;" align="right">6.29</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Southern Miss</td> <td sdval="-12.77" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-12.77</td> <td sdval="-7.5" sdnum="1033;" align="right">-7.5</td> <td sdval="5.27" sdnum="1033;" align="right">5.27</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" height="17">Oregon</td> <td sdval="8.77" sdnum="1033;" align="right">8.77</td> <td sdval="16" sdnum="1033;" align="right">16</td> <td sdval="7.23" sdnum="1033;" align="right">7.23</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Going by this, the top plays in terms of strength would be:

Minnesota
Vanderbilt
Ball State
Arkansas
Western Michigan
Northern Illinois
Oregon
SMU
California
Akron
Washington
Iowa State

Will Play Minnesota, Vanderbilt, Ball State, Arkansas, and Western Michigan for 2 units each, the rest...1 unit. Will also see how the lower valued games go this week as well, but won't play them just yet.

Also, I didn't look up injuries yet or weather, so I may throw a few out. Any insight would be appreciated.

Jetplane · Sep 30, 2008

Thanks for posting Frankie... I'll run them with my numbers and give you my input also. I'm doing really well in NCAAF.

FrankieCarbone · Sep 30, 2008

Nice, let me know what your plays are for this week.

Jetplane said:
Thanks for posting Frankie... I'll run them with my numbers and give you my input also. I'm doing really well in NCAAF.

nightmare · Sep 30, 2008

Whats a good site to get updated Sagarin rankings?

Thanks,

FrankieCarbone · Sep 30, 2008

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm

nightmare said:
Whats a good site to get updated Sagarin rankings?

Thanks,

nightmare · Sep 30, 2008

Duh! My bad

Thanks!

BigTymePlayer25 · Sep 30, 2008

Sagarin puts out a very useful tool....I use it as one element of my handicapping and it has payed dividends over the years

FrankieCarbone · Oct 5, 2008

Not too bad this week going 7-4-1 with sagarin plays, and the top plays that I played for 2 units each going 4-1.

Minnesota Winner
Vanderbilt Winner
Ball State Winner
Arkansas Loser - FU Urban Meyer....lol
Western Michigan Winner
Northern Illinois Winner
Oregon Loser
SMU Push
California Winner
Akron Loser
Washington Loser
Iowa State Winner