RTH analysis for today

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Washington +1.74 over ST. LOUIS PINNACLE <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
Sidney Ponson is off to a decent 2-0 start but we’re not going to put too much emphasis on that. What we’re going to focus on here is the fact that he’s a huge favorite and shouldn’t be. In the past two years he’s had ERA’s of 5.30 and 6.22 and doesn’t look much different on the hill this year. Sure, his numbers are better right now but that could change real fast. You see, Ponson has struck out just five batters in 16 innings (he’s also walked five) and that’s a strong indication that the opposition is seeing the ball well against him, they’ve just been hitting it at people thus far. He’s given up 18 hits in those 16 frames and the opposition is hitting .300 against him. The Nationals aren’t as bad as their record indicates. They’ll come around soon and may just get a nice boost here from a rookie by the name of Mike O'Connor. O'Connor come in highly touted and he’s also a lefty. In four starts with Triple-A New Orleans this season he posted a 2.41 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 18 2-3 innings. <o:p></o:p>
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Tampa Bay +2.40 over NY YANKEES PINNACLE
The only way we refuse this price against Shawn Chacon is if the game was final. Bottom line is that Chacon is a way below average starter and should never be better than a 2½-1 favorite over any team in this league. Chacon is a big inning waiting to happen and there’s going to be plenty of big innings against him all year; that is, until the Yanks cut him loose, trade him, or send him down. Don’t be fooled by his last four-hit seven-inning performance over the Orioles either. Baltimore was scorching the ball off him and Chacon was incredibly fortunate that the ball was hit right at the outfielders. The Devil Rays have hit 29 bombs in April already and that should bode well against this fly-ball pitcher. Big lefthander, Mark Hendrickson will throw for the Rays after missing three starts due to shoulder stiffness. He threw a three-hitter in a 2-0 victory at Baltimore on April 6 before being placed on the disabled list but says he’s never felt better. Devil Rays always give the Yanks fits and for sure this is a giant overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +2.40 (Risking 1.5 units). <o:p></o:p>
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TORONTO +1.00 over Baltimore PINNACLE <o:p></o:p>
Jays lead the majors in hitting and that alone makes them worthy of an endorsement here in their own barn. The Orioles pitchers have allowed 28 jacks in the teams last 16 games and tonight’s starter, Kris Benson, has looked average at best. His first two outing were decent, however, his past two have been ugly against the Yanks and Angels and things don’t figure to get easier here. Toronto has scored seven or more runs in four of its past five games with only the Yanks Mike Mussina holding them in check over that span. Jays will get a look at Casey Janssen here, who will make his major league debut. He went 1-2 at Triple-A Syracuse with a 4.15 ERA, however, with the Jays bats as hot as they’ve been, we’ll take our chances that the Jays give him enough support to get us to the cashier’s booth when this one is in the books. Jays are hot, Orioles are cold and the better team at home is the pooch. That works for us. Play: Toronto +1.00 (Risking 1.5 units).


 
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Great analysis, X Files. I'm on the opposite side of Balt. and St Louis but I'm having second thoughts now!
 

"It's better to eat shit than to not eat at all."
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are these the same plays as Sherwood, looks like same setup and he always riosks 1.5 units
 

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