Cannot take credit for this but I found it to be very interesting, and hope it helps someone...
It's by Jon White - "Three Strikes"
STRIKES FOR THE CANDIDATES
In 1999, I came up with various key factors to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks from a tactical and historical standpoint. When a horse doesn’t qualify in one of the 10 categories, he or she gets a strike. When a horse gets three or more strikes, I toss them out. That’s because since I developed this system, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby with more than two strikes.
Here are how many strikes each Kentucky Derby winner has had going back to 1999:
1999 Charismatic (1 strike)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes)
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (1 strike)
2007 Smart Sense (1 strike)
2008 Big Brown (2 strikes)
Here are how many strikes a number of this year’s possible Kentucky Derby starters have:
ZERO STRIKES
Chocolate Candy
Desert Party
General Quarters
Musket Man
Papa Clem
Pioneerof the Nile
ONE STRIKE
Friesan Fire
I Want Revenge
Quality Road
Regal Ransom
Square Eddie
West Side Bernie
TWO STRIKES
Mr. Hot Stuff
Take the Points
Win Willy
THREE STRIKES
Dunkirk
Hold Me Back
Flying Private
Join in the Dance
FOUR STRIKES
Advice
Atomic Rain
Summer Bird
FIVE STRIKES
Flat Out
1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980 and Sunny’s Halo in 1983 have won the Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)
Advice, Mine That Bird and Summer Bird each get a strike.
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba did finish first in the Blue Grass only to be disqualified and placed third.)
This is one of Dunkirk’s strikes. Advice, Atomic Rain, Flat Out, Flying Private, Mr. Hot Stuff, Join in the Dance, Summer Bird and Take the Points also each get a strike.
3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 44 of the last 46 Derby winners have been first or second at the eighth pole. Giacomo was sixth at the eighth pole in 2005; Grindstone was fourth at the eighth pole in 1996; Decidedly was third at the eighth pole in 1962. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam, Carry Back, Cannonade, Gato Del Sol, Unbridled and Sea Hero, with Canonero II unknown.)
Advice, Flat Out, Flying Private, Hold Me Back, Mr. Hot Stuff and West Side Bernie each get a strike.
4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way, Cannonade, Foolish Pleasure, Ferdinand and Silver Charm, with Canonero II unknown.)
Atomic Rain, Flat Out, Flying Private, Join in the Dance and Mine That Bird each get a strike.
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King, Sea Hero, Charismatic and Giacomo.)
Advice, Atomic Rain, Flat Out, Friesan Fire, Mine That Bird, Join in the Dance, Take the Points and Win Willy each get a strike.
6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008 have been the only exceptions. Grindsone, Fusaichi Pegasus and Barbaro each had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown had made three starts before the Kentucky Derby.)
Dunkirk, Flat Out, Hold Me Back, Quality Road, Regal Ransom, Summer Bird and Win Willy each get a strike.
7. THE NO ADDING BLINKERS AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers in any of his or her races at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Exceptions: Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers at 3 before winning the Derby. Strike the Gold did have blinkers removed in his second start at 3.)
This is the one strike for I Want Revenge. A strike is a strike, but I consider this rather inconsequential in the case of I Want Revenge because he added blinkers for his first 2009 race and subsequently won his next two races. So this isn’t a case of tinkering at the last minute on the part of trainer Jeff Mullins. Nevertheless, if I Want Revenge does win the Kentucky Derby, the fact remains he will be the first to do so having added blinkers in a race at 3 before the Derby.
Atomic Rain also gets a strike in this category.
8. RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby winner who didn’t race as a 2-year-old.)
This is another strike for Dunkirk. Summer Bird also gets a strike in this category. Since 1955, horses unraced at 2 are 0 for 44 in the Kentucky Derby. During that time, the only horses to even place or show were Strodes Creek (second in 1994) and Curlin (third in 2007).
9. NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide is the only gelding to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
Mine That Bird gets a strike.
10. THE SUFFICIENT EXPERIENCE AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has made at least three starts at 3 before the Derby.) (Exceptions: Of the last 61 horses to run in the Derby with fewer than three preps, 58 have failed. The only exceptions since Jet Pilot in 1947 were Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Street Sense in 2007 and Big Brown in 2008.)
Hold Me Back, Mine That Bird and Square Eddie each get a strike.