Rolling with Boise State on the blue turf this Friday

[sendacash]

Jumping on this game now as the early betting action has brought the line down to Boise -12. Coming off that shocking loss to New Mexico will there be a letdown? I don't think so as Boise still has a chance to win the MWC by knocking off division leader Air Force, coupled with a New Mexico loss. What a bizarre box score last week out gaining the Lobos 638 to 413 with an amazing 40 first downs to only 11 for New Mexico who was also 0-10 on third down. Boise ran 114 plays to New Mexico's 52 and the Lobos were called for 16 penalties as well. Anyways, I think this loss has created some line value as I made this line Broncos -21 and they were laying -13 last year in Colorado Springs. Boise lost that game last year against Air Force, think they had a bunch of turnovers so that creates a revenge situation as well and facing another option team in back to back weeks should help in preparation for this game.

 

[quantumleap]

It's all about where you can find the line being off for me and you've made a good case of it here. I'll be looking at this game as well.

Thanks for posting.

 

[Cantpickem]

Boise is an up and down team. They were supposed to roll against Utah st. and now New Mex.
Can they be trusted to do the job this Friday?

 

[rolltide]

out gaining the Lobos 638 to 413 with an amazing 40 first downs to only 11 for New Mexico who was also 0-10 on third down

413 yards on 52 plays is pretty damn good production. tough to win giving up 8 yards per play

 

[sendacash]

Wish I had waited to play this game as 11s are widely available, even some 10.5s out there. Oh well, still think Bosie gets it done by 21.

 

[cashflow50]

gl cash..on them with you

 

[thecruncher]

Hey Senda, I'd be curious as to how you make your lines, as mine seem to be hugely different from yours in the ones I've seen.

 

[sendacash]

Hey Senda, I'd be curious as to how you make your lines, as mine seem to be hugely different from yours in the ones I've seen.

I create a power rating for each team at the beginning of the year using various sources and then adjust that rating each week based on the outcomes. Sometimes when I appear to be off on certain teams, I try to adjust towards the closing lines.