RJJM94 - Week 10 Totals - 9-5 (64.3%)(+4.4 Units)

[RJJM94]

2007: 56-41 (+141.8 Units) 57.73%

2008: (started in week 8)

Week 8: 5-2 (+3.8 Units) 71.4%
​

Week 9: 4-3 (+0.6 Units) 57.1%
​

Overall: 9-5 (+4.4 Units) 64.3%
​

By units:
5 unit plays:
4 unit plays:
3 unit plays:
2 unit plays: 1-1
1 unit plays: 8-4
---------------------------------

Official Play:
DEN/CLE over 46 - 1 Unit

 

[RJJM94]

Leans (strongest at the top):
TEN/CHI over 38.5
CAR/OAK over 37.5
DEN/CLE over 46 *Already an official play
GB/MIN under 45.5
KC/SD over 47.5
NYG/PHI under 43.5
STL/NYJ under 44.5


Probably going to narrow this down to 3-5 more plays. Love to here your guys comments. Usually I let my spreadsheet shoot out the total and if they are off I post them as a lean. Then I do more research and try to find solid reasons to talk myself out of them and if I cant then I play them.

 

[LuCaniTy]

DEN/CLE over 46

does your system accounted for the quarter back change? I think with the new quarter back Browns will do a lot of short passes and run the ball more to take pressure of Brady Quinn

 

[RJJM94]

Yes I accounted for it... was going to be a 2* but I brought it down to 1*... still has a decent amount of value in it.

 

[RJJM94]

Official Plays:
TEN/CHI over 38 - 2 units
GB/MIN under 45 - 2 units
CAR/OAK over 37.5 - 1 unit
DEN/CLE over 46 - 1 unit
STL/NYJ under 44.5 - 1 unit

 

[RJJM94]

IND/PIT might be a very large bet for me if it comes out at a decent line. I have the game capped at 31, which is one of the lowest lines my spreadsheet has produced in the last 2 years.

 

[LuCaniTy]

Yes I accounted for it... was going to be a 2* but I brought it down to 1*... still has a decent amount of value in it.

Nov 06, 2008 04:59 AM (05:36:01 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:081106045948-1 <table class="RPTTBBackground" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="400"> <tbody><tr> <td class="RPTTDBackground" width="36"> </td> <td class="RPTTDBackground" width="365">STRAIGHT 105/100 </td></tr></tbody></table> <table class="RPTTBbackground" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="685"> <tbody><tr><td class="RPTTDBackground" width="36"> </td> <td class="RPTTDBackground" width="36"> </td> <td width="180">107. Broncos (Denver) / Browns (Cleveland)</td> <td width="425">Un 46 -105 { Pro Ftbll } </td></tr></tbody></table>

Nov 06, 2008 06:15 PM (06:19:04 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:081106181536-1 <table class="RPTTBBackground" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="400"> <tbody><tr> <td class="RPTTDBackground" width="36"> </td> <td class="RPTTDBackground" width="365">STRAIGHT 210/200 </td></tr></tbody></table> <table class="RPTTBbackground" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="685"> <tbody><tr><td class="RPTTDBackground" width="36"> </td> <td class="RPTTDBackground" width="36"> </td> <td width="180">107. Broncos (Denver) / Browns (Cleveland)</td> <td width="425">Ov 46½ -105 { Pro Ftbll } </td></tr></tbody></table>

Thanks, I changed my bet arty:arty:

 

[thecruncher]

Nice, had the Over as well. It was already played before the QB change, but like you said, it was still showing enough value to let it ride. Liking the direction of most of the other plays this week as well. I don't show any value on the TEN/CHI O/U with Orton out. If Orton plays I show a little value on the Over, but probably not enough to play.

 

[RJJM94]

Official Plays:
IND/PIT under 39 - 3 units * newly added *
TEN/CHI over 38 - 2 units
GB/MIN under 45 - 2 units
CAR/OAK over 37.5 - 1 unit
DEN/CLE over 46 - 1 unit
STL/NYJ under 44.5 - 1 unit

Looks like i might have a shitty day... and I really liked the card before the games started.

 

[RJJM94]

Fucking horrible day....

Official Plays:
IND/PIT under 39 - 3 units L -3.3 Units
TEN/CHI over 38 - 2 units L -2.2 Units
GB/MIN under 45 - 2 units L -2.2 Units
CAR/OAK over 37.5 - 1 unit L -1.1 Units
DEN/CLE over 46 - 1 unit W +1 Unit
STL/NYJ under 44.5 - 1 unit L -1.1 Units

1-5 (-8.9 Units)

miserable......

 

[RJJM94]

this game has some value now that its up to 48.
Official play:

SF/ARI under 48 - 1 Unit



...should probably fade this though considering my other plays went 1-5 this week.
:WTF: