Revamped totals analysis and Plays revision

[thecruncher]

Hi all. My totals have been hitting fantastically well this past month, but I still felt the need to sharpen up my lines. My totals were staying a little centralized versus the posted lines, i.e. my lines were generally below the highest lines, and above the lowest lines. In order to correct this, I've gone ahead and set up my spreadsheet to adjust the total based on the Offensive talent of the teams involved. Yes, I was already taking into account Pass/Run offense and defense, adjusting these numbers for the game matchup, etc. But a couple of games recently that I thought had a good Over value simply didn't due to lack of offensive talent. While betting Over on a lot of mid 30 Totals this year has done well for me, I don't think there has been as much value in them as my spreadsheet was telling me, hence the update.

So, here are the adjusted Totals for this week.

Away Team*Posted Total
Home*****My Total****Value

Browns____39
Benglals___37.08__Under 1.93 Value

Ravens____36
Patriots____39.1__Over 3.1 Value

Eagles___37.5
Giants___41.99__Over 4.49 Value

Redskins__36
Steelers___30.84__Under 5.16 Value

Jaguars__46.5
Vikings__46___Under .5 Value
(Leftwich will start, it appears)

Bucs_____39.5
Panthers__38.87__Under .63 Value

Chargers__52
Chiefs____52.06__Over .06 Value

Titans__43.5
Texans_40.64__Under 2.86 Value

Saints__46.5
Falcons_47.61__Over 1.11 Value

Jets______36
Cardinals__38.02__Over 2.02 Value

Bills_____38
Seahawks_37.43__Under .57 Value

Dolphins__38.5
49ers_____35.48__Under 3.02 Value

Raiders__45
Broncos__42.26__Under 2.74 Value

Rams____52
Packers___51.11__Under .89 Value

Changes
Now that Leftwich is getting the start I'm getting off the Under on that one, removing it as a posted play.

The Eagles/Giants Over I'm bumping up to a Top Play. 40% chance of rain with wind 10-20 projected right now.

I still love the Redskins/Steelers Under. If the Redskins break 11 points this game it will be a moral victory for them.

Everything else stands as posted, BOL

 

[jaydoggie]

sorry to be naive im pretty new here, and this is the first time i posted.
are you playing everything with any "value" or do you have a seperate post with your plays. also, whats your record, you say youre doing well. . just curious.

 

[thecruncher]

sorry to be naive im pretty new here, and this is the first time i posted.
are you playing everything with any "value" or do you have a seperate post with your plays. also, whats your record, you say youre doing well. . just curious.

Hey, Jaydawg, welcome to the forum. I post my picks at the end of the thread where I list my line and total for every game being played. Occasionally I'll start a new thread with a pick, but rarely. I usually look for about 3 points of value to make a play -- with high overs, anthing near the line.

My record on all totals posted on the forum this year is 17-7 for whole games, and 0-1 on halfs.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hey....I SEE THAT YOU HAVE SF UNDER 38.5 AS A 3.02 VALUE......BEFORE I POST THIS ONE....AS I LIKE THE UNDER HERE....
ARE YOU BETTING THIS GAME....OR WHAT DO YOU THINK?

YOU ASK LAST WEEK ABOUT MY BACK GROUND....I HAVE LIVE IN MICH ALL MY LIFE....I DO HAVE A SMALL HOME IN VEGAS....TWO YEAR OF COLLAGE...MY DAD GOT ME THE BEST JOB IN FORDS....WORKING IN THE STEEL MILL....BACK IN 1974...I WAS MAKING $50,000 A YEAR....THAT WAS A LOT AT THE TIME....I ONLY WORK 3 HR A DAY.....AFTER 6 YEAR I QUIT....I WANTED MORE THAN THAT... STARTED A BOOKIE BUSINESS.....FOOD BUSINESS.AND A TANNING BUSINESS ALL IN TWO YEARS....I'AM FROM THE SCHOOL OF HARD KNOT....

CRUNCHER.....IF YOU WANT A BETTER LIFE....YOU GOT TO PUT IT ALL ON THE LINE......ITS HARD OUT THERE....

 

[thecruncher]

Hey Ace, I did make a small play on the SF Under at 38.5, but I'm not listing it as one of my plays. Most books look to have it at 38 right now, BetRoyal the only 38.5 on the LiveLines. My concerns for the Under -- SF still very banged up defensively. Miami has some defensive injuries as well, but can still put enough players on the field to slow down the 49ers. Both teams are turnover prone, and I think it's hard to handicap how that affects the total, as it could lead to very short fields or long fields for the team getting the TO. The Dolphins injuries and inexperience (Feeley) at QB may not be able to fully capatalize on the 49er D. injuries. Both teams are inconsistent offensively, and if the game is close they will try to run the ball and limit mistakes, which all helps the Under.

Thanks for the info. and advice, Ace. BOL this week.

 

[mindbreaker]

looking at your o & u in similar system but not always true
what are you picks and record on the over and unders?

my leans and waiting for better line
balt over 36
minn under 46.5
houston under 43
sf over 37.5 giveaways should score
den under 44.5
good luck and hope you have a winning week

 

[ShedClub]

Cruncher I was wondering what your record is this season with your totals.

Thanks
SHED

 

[Glaken]

Crunch, are using an Excel speadsheet?...and if so what is your score factor? (2,3,4?) Thanks for the work....good job. I use Excel to find out how close a game may be, I need some help with totals....are you going to come to the Bash in August? BTW...I'm talking NFL only...I give up with college.

 

[thecruncher]

...My record on all totals posted on the forum this year is 17-7 for whole games, and 0-1 on halfs.

I've sometimes relied on turnovers to produce scoring, but I can't definitively say how much value it adds. For example, 2 weeks ago I played the Over on the Balt./Dallas game, saying that the Cowboys Offense was just as likely to produce points for the Ravens via the turnover as they were to produce scores for themselves. Ultimately that proved to be true, but it took 30+ points in the 2nd half for that to happen! I had a line on that game that looked good to go over without factoring TO's, so the TO potential just sealed the deal. The same did not hold true on Thanksgiving when in the Chi./Dallas game. Krenzel came into this game turning the ball over more than most point guards in the NBA. There were several TO's in the game, but they didn't add to the scoring and the game stayed under. So I don't think you can rely on TO's too strongely to produce points. Fumbling at the opponent's one-yard line trying to stretch the ball across the goal line is never fun when you're on the Over, lol.

As far as the SF/Miami game goes, Rattay is capable of moving the ball, so TO's could just as easily come deep in Miami territory as at the 49er 20. With the 49ers injured D., Miami may move the ball some and also turn it over deep in 49er territory. Kevan Barlow is not a speed outside rusher who ends up running out of bounds at the end of a lot of his carries, and most teams try to attack the Dolphin D. with strong inside the tackles running anyway-- this eats up the clock. The Dolphins are only 30% in the red zone, the 49ers 43.3%. NFL average is 53%. Their defenses are soft, allowing 59.7% and 68.4% respectively, which balances things out a little. Their FG kicking combined has been a little less than average. While the 2 teams combined have given up 9 defensive TD's, they've only scored one defensive TD. All in all, I've made a small play on the under, but am not listing it as a posted play.

 

[thecruncher]

Hey Glaken, yeah, I do use Excel, using your average NFL.com boxscore applied to formulas I've developed to weight the factors into a pointspread/total. More info. later perhaps, I've got to run -- the wife is waiting in the bedroom...to watch Band of Brothers on the laptop, lol.