RedElephants Tuesday MAC Info & Play

[RedElephants]

Use at your Will......

1st Woodside is doubtful. Julian is the next option but Toledo also has a 3rd option without redshirting anyone and that is WR Dwight Macon who is a converted QB to WR and played the position in high school. He knows the Offense well.

The next information is not going to go most of your way I don't think with many worried about Toledo and their QB:

NIU gives up 25 PPG while scoring 32 PPG, yet has only faced 1 Top 50 Offense all season. That was Arkansas and they were beaten 52-14. There is no other avenue to gauge them other than looking at their Total Numbers which are they are 63rd in Total Defense, 58 against the Run and 83rd Pass, facing terrible Offenses. In fact they have also only faced 1 Top 50 Rushing Offense in Arkansas and 2 Top 50 Pass Offenses in UNLV and Miami-Ohio.

Toledo is 16 Total Offense, 19 Rushing, 48 Passing. In the above Top 50 Offenses, NIU games were 66 total points against Arkansas, 82 UNLV, and 92 Miami-Ohio

Flipside:

Toledo gives up 32 PPG while scoring 34 PPG; they have faced 3 Top 50 Offenses this season in Cincinnati where 92 points were scored, WMU where only 39 points were scored but the game was played in horrid driving rain weather, and UMASS where 77 combined points were scored. In the WMU game, they still had over 450 yards of Offense, 388 Passing. Toledo is ranked 13th in Rushing Defense, but they have only faced one Top 50 Rushing Offense in Western Michigan. NIU is 10th is Rushing Offense, 34th in Total Offense.

Toledo has also faced 2 Top 50 Defenses and those games produced a 1-1 record and 73 and 70 Total points. NIU is not Top 50 Defense, 63rd on paper and not that good in my opinion.

Toledo Pass Defense is 123rd....Cincinnati, Central Michigan, and UMASS threw all over their Defense.

In short, the numbers clearly show that NIU at 63rd in Total Defense is NOT as goo as that number. Toledo Pass Defense is horrible and the 13 Rushing number is not as strong due to only playing 1 Top 50 Rushing Offense. NIU is 19th in Rushing Offense.

Toledo will be the best Total Offense NIU has seen all season. NIU will be the 2nd best Offense they have seen all season, Toledo will be the 5th Best Defense they have faced, NIU will be the 4th best Defense they have faced.

6 of 8 Toledo D1 games have gone over 57 points; 5 of 8 NIU games have gone over 51 points.

All things point to........

Over 61 for 2 Units

 

[G.MONEY]

agree the play if any is over

 

[tripleh]

Nice write-up RE

 

[RedElephants]

One other Note: Although NIU is 83rd in Passing Offense, they are 50th in Passing Efficiency Offense. Obviously being an Alabama Fan in previous years I've always observed this number closely to see if they Passing O is bad because passing is bad, or simply because they love to run. NIU loves to run but when they have to throw the QB is Top 50....and against 123rd Passing Defense, he will have his opportunities.

 

[theplayer31]

One other Note: Although NIU is 83rd in Passing Offense, they are 50th in Passing Efficiency Offense. Obviously being an Alabama Fan in previous years I've always observed this number closely to see if they Passing O is bad because passing is bad, or simply because they love to run. NIU loves to run but when they have to throw the QB is Top 50....and against 123rd Passing Defense, he will have his opportunities.

The weather looking good for this game? Seems like that was a factor last week...

 

[TeeItUp22]

The weather looking good for this game? Seems like that was a factor last week...

30 degrees with 15-25 mph wind. Pretty windy even now.

 

[theplayer31]

30 degrees with 15-25 mph wind. Pretty windy even now.

hmmm... I took it regardless, I trust Red and his capping. Thanks for update though TeeItUp22!

 

[EzMoney012]

Best of luck red

 

[RedElephants]

Both teams run 1st and are dang good at it. I have no concerns. Passing Defenses are really bad. Passes will be open.

 

[tnvolfan]

Total on this game opened at 65.5........maybe BW's crew bet it down and will come back and hammer the over.

 

[mgh56]

Red,
Very thorough breakdown of this game. I was able to get the over 59.5 earlier, gl.......

 

[fade2win]

FWIW

Woodside came out in heavily taped ankle for about 10 min then went back into locker room via twitter.... downgraded to doubtful

 

[Addicted2quack]

Red is very good at capping and always supplies useful info but im sticking with my gut that toledo will be relying heavily on the run and will not be able to throw the ball in those conditions with a 3rd string qb... Give me NIU -4.5

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight!!!!

 

[RussellPeters]

Good luck Red. Hate to be on the opposite side of you on this one. This year's version of NIU is not the offensive powerhouse we knew under QB Harnish. They are not a good passing team and rely on Stingly way too much. They are much more conservative and will work the clock and run it a lot. Add the fact that Woodside might not play and we have to rely on Julian who is horrible. IMO this game won't hit the 50s. You are pretty solid on all your analysis and respect everything you post. Hate to be on the other side here so no bad luck. One of us will be happy. I got Under 61.5.

 

[RedElephants]

Good luck Red. Hate to be on the opposite side of you on this one. This year's version of NIU is not the offensive powerhouse we knew under QB Harnish. They are not a good passing team and rely on Stingly way too much. They are much more conservative and will work the clock and run it a lot. Add the fact that Woodside might not play and we have to rely on Julian who is horrible. IMO this game won't hit the 50s. You are pretty solid on all your analysis and respect everything you post. Hate to be on the other side here so no bad luck. One of us will be happy. I got Under 61.5.

Russell...its why they play the game. Good luck! By the way NIU is 92nd in the Country in Time of Possession so the theory of Stingly and a cloud of dust does not calculate on paper for some reason?

 

[tmader7]

FWIW

Woodside came out in heavily taped ankle for about 10 min then went back into locker room via twitter.... downgraded to doubtful

And this, is why I hammered the Huskies. GLTA, please salute your vets, they've earned our respect and love.

~T~

 

[8ate]

Preseason; this NIU/Rockets g was supposed to be the circled key goy; now not so big; wind will be more of a factor; imho...gl

 

[RedElephants]

FWIW

Woodside came out in heavily taped ankle for about 10 min then went back into locker room via twitter.... downgraded to doubtful

"Woodside went back into the Locker Room to smoke a 2nd joint and one more Percocet. He'll be back out in a few with the strongest arm ever and an ankle made of steel!". Seriously....their Coach knew he wasn't playing if that is true. I don't know who got the Reps, but someone other than Woodside did.....lets give the Toledo Coach a little credit at least....if that report is true.

 

[RedElephants]

Notice in the opening post I mentioned Dwight Macon. If he had started like I thought he would the game would have moved quicker early. What can I say? Niu WR falls down on his own going in and ends up settling for 3 in the 2nd. TD called back in the 3rd, and some suspicious 4th down attempts rather than going for points. Bottom line it's a loss.

Guys...not my year. Not making money this time and not dragging anyone down with me. Gone for the rest of the season, I'm just not used to this. If the groove comes back I will see you at the bowls. Otherwise......next year!

Good luck and post some winners!