RedElephants Bowls

[RedElephants]

Too much clutter over Army-Navy so this is a new Thread for Bowls. Play nice......

Bowl Play #1

Nevada OVER 61

Every team with a Top 60 Offense scored 31 points or more against Nevada other than Washington State. Washington State cannot run the ball, the rest could, and so can UL Lafayette, they are 23rd in Rushing. Nevada is 112th in Passing D and Lafayette is 117th.....those should provide for some big passing plays from both teams in between some great Rushing Offenses. Nevada scored 20 points or more in EVERY game this Season. Their Rushing Offense is 30th. If you look at these two teams position by position, Nevada probably has the edge. But when you add playing in New Orleans and Coach Hudspeth who is known for having tricks up his sleeve in big games, edge gets close to even. If this game was played anywhere else, Nevada would be the play for me. But with these 2 Offenses ranked 53 and 56, and Defenses that are 86th and 103rd, I look for an opening shootout and a line that will rise. Of the 5 Bowl teams Lafayette played, they gave up 9, 34, 40, 48, and 56 points.......SO.......

Over 61 for 4 Units

gl

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Nice write up. Certainly something to think about.

 

[colorado]

Another factor is the start time. this an 8am start for nevadas "bodyclock" they will only have a few am practices in new Orleans,before the game. they weren't able to adjust there practice schedules last week because of semester finals. also NV has played 1 day game in the last 2 months. coach Polian expressed concern over the start time the day after the bowl schedule was released. im playing ULL and a small ULL and over parlay good luck

 

[RedElephants]

Posting a few stats on games tomorrow.

Utah---whooh....they were wore out this season. 26th Ranked Strength of Schedule. They faced 9 Top 60 Offenses this Season, which plays a huge part in why the are ranked 73rd in Total Defense. How they are still ranked 54th in Rushing Defense I don't know. But the stats clearly say, don't pay much attention to the Defensive numbers, Utah was doing all they can. Their Defense is the key to this team. Offensively, they only faced 2 Top 50 Defenses all Season, Michigan and Stanford, yet their Offensive numbers are not that good, 84th in Total Offense, 52 Rushing, 90 Passing. Utah played 3 Overtime games this year, and 5 of their wins came by either Overtime or less than 4 point wins. The strange part about having the horrible numbers on Offense is that they still managed to Score points averaging 30PPG. Colorado State Defense is 82, but they did face 5 Top 60 Offenses. One has to think that this Defensive team will have the most benefit of anyone getting some much needed rest. Playing 9 Top 60 Offenses is pretty crazy....you just don't see that much.

Colorado State-You have to start with a huge mental letdown of McElwain being gone. He did an incredible job in a short period of time and this team believed in him. He was also a HUGE part of the what took place on Offense, with him being gone, someone else will be making all of the decisions. Colorado State had the 96th ranked Strength of Schedule. Their Offense is Ranked 12th and very balanced. Mac is gone but Garrett Grayson, Dee Hart, and Rashard Higgins are still around. Colorado State Defense is only ranked 82nd, but they did face 5 Top 60 Offenses. In addition, they held 9 of 12 opponents to 27 points or less. When Colorado State faced teams with good Defense, their point production fell, scoring 16, 21, 24, 24, and 38 points. Looking at these numbers, one might think that this had alot to do with that 96 ranked SOS. This team from the end of last season thru this year had a mental edge created by their Head Coach. He's gone....so the question is what will they do next.

 

[RedElephants]

A few Stats on South Alabama-BG that I think are important:

-South Alabama will be fired up where they are playing and want to win this game
-Bowling Green lost 3 straight to end the season
-South Alabama lost 4 of their 5 last games
-South Alabama averaged 30 PPG but faced ZERO Top 50 Defenses; that being said Bowling Green will be the WORST Defense they have faced all Season at 119th.
-Bowling Green did get that 119th ranking facing 7 Top 50 Offenses; South Alabama faced 7 Top 50 Offenses as well, but their Defensive ranking is 60th.
-Bowling Green faced 4 Top 50 Defenses and went 1-3 against them
-South Alabama went 2-5 against Top 50 Offenses. BG is 46th. They gave up 10,19,20, 35,37,42, and 45 points in those games.
-BG scoed 14, 17, 20 and 27 points against the Top 5 Defenses. South Alabama is 60th in Total Defense
-South Alabama in 8 of 12 games scored 27 points or less
-South Alabama is 46th in Rushing, BG 53rd, so clearly USA has the better Defense and can Run equal or better than BG on Offense
-South Alabama played some good teams, Navy, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Lafayette, Arkansas St....they've seen it all. The one thing I liked about the Navy game is that they lost the game but dominated Time of Possession. That is what they have to do against Bowling Green
-Of the 6 games the BG lost, in 5 of them they lost badly. It seems on paper that those that played shoot-out with BG typically lost. Those that had decent Defense and elected to dominate time of possession, beat them.

 

[indiana]

Red...........appreciate the info..........BOL with all your action during the bowl season..........indy

 

[RedElephants]

A few Stats on South Alabama-BG that I think are important:

-South Alabama will be fired up where they are playing and want to win this game
-Bowling Green lost 3 straight to end the season
-South Alabama lost 4 of their 5 last games
-South Alabama averaged 30 PPG but faced ZERO Top 50 Defenses; that being said Bowling Green will be the WORST Defense they have faced all Season at 119th.
-Bowling Green did get that 119th ranking facing 7 Top 50 Offenses; South Alabama faced 7 Top 50 Offenses as well, but their Defensive ranking is 60th.
-Bowling Green faced 4 Top 50 Defenses and went 1-3 against them
-South Alabama went 2-5 against Top 50 Offenses. BG is 46th. They gave up 10,19,20, 35,37,42, and 45 points in those games.
-BG scored 14, 17, 20 and 27 points against the Top 50 Defenses. South Alabama is 60th in Total Defense
-South Alabama in 8 of 12 games scored 27 points or less
-South Alabama is 46th in Rushing, BG 53rd, so clearly USA has the better Defense and can Run equal or better than BG on Offense
-South Alabama played some good teams, Navy, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Lafayette, Arkansas St....they've seen it all. The one thing I liked about the Navy game is that they lost the game but dominated Time of Possession. That is what they have to do against Bowling Green
-Of the 6 games the BG lost, in 5 of them they lost badly. It seems on paper that those that played shoot-out with BG typically lost. Those that had decent Defense and elected to dominate time of possession, beat them.

Corrected a few typos

 

[RedElephants]

On iPad now so not much detail just thoughts on study....

western michigan Air Force

WMU coach just got big raise , RB Franklin was not 100% last 3 games, is now and wmu players want the schools 1st bowl win......that is a lot of good news and motivation. Wmu is balanced.....Air Force played only 2 teams all season that even hint at throwing the ball and still ended up 98th in pass d. Surprisingly they beat both those teams Boise and colorado st. In the Boise game they were aid by 7 turnovers. They have beaten Csu 8 of last 9 and Mac probably had 1 foot out the door. Believe it or not wmu has better time of possession than Air Force. The other thing that caught my eye was 2 of the 3 Air Force losses were by teams that have Top 50 defense, and wmu has that too....

 

[RedElephants]

7 Pt T
Colorado St +10
UTEP +17

2 Units

This will be the only T of the day. UTEP is #2 in Time of Possession is they better Rushing team, is coached by someone who played there and is happy to be bowling. You cannot deny that from Game 1 that Utah St is short 9 starters. 17 is a lot of points and if UTEP plays smart they can stay in this ball game. I believe from the total dropping that someone has a pretty good idea of the gameplan. As for the other, win or lose Utah played in many tight games. CSU was taught something by Coach Mac and simply need to remember it for one more game. They by far have the better Offensive firepower, and to get 10 points you simply have to take it.

 

[RedElephants]

.5 Unit Par
Western Michigan -1.5
USA -3
USA Under 53.5

.5 to win 3.05 Units 3 team par

gl

 

[memphis]

Too much clutter over Army-Navy so this is a new Thread for Bowls. Play nice......

Bowl Play #1

Nevada OVER 61

Every team with a Top 60 Offense scored 31 points or more against Nevada other than Washington State. Washington State cannot run the ball, the rest could, and so can UL Lafayette, they are 23rd in Rushing. Nevada is 112th in Passing D and Lafayette is 117th.....those should provide for some big passing plays from both teams in between some great Rushing Offenses. Nevada scored 20 points or more in EVERY game this Season. Their Rushing Offense is 30th. If you look at these two teams position by position, Nevada probably has the edge. But when you add playing in New Orleans and Coach Hudspeth who is known for having tricks up his sleeve in big games, edge gets close to even. If this game was played anywhere else, Nevada would be the play for me. But with these 2 Offenses ranked 53 and 56, and Defenses that are 86th and 103rd, I look for an opening shootout and a line that will rise. Of the 5 Bowl teams Lafayette played, they gave up 9, 34, 40, 48, and 56 points.......SO.......

Over 61 for 4 Units

gl

good write up red like it i thinking 80 int his one. gluck on ur plays

 

[RedElephants]

On iPad now so not much detail just thoughts on study....

western michigan Air Force

WMU coach just got big raise , RB Franklin was not 100% last 3 games, is now and wmu players want the schools 1st bowl win......that is a lot of good news and motivation. Wmu is balanced.....Air Force played only 2 teams all season that even hint at throwing the ball and still ended up 98th in pass d. Surprisingly they beat both those teams Boise and colorado st. In the Boise game they were aid by 7 turnovers. They have beaten Csu 8 of last 9 and Mac probably had 1 foot out the door. Believe it or not wmu has better time of possession than Air Force. The other thing that caught my eye was 2 of the 3 Air Force losses were by teams that have Top 50 defense, and wmu has that too....

0-1, -4.4 Units Just a really horrible game....onto the next.

Western Michigan -2.5 for 4 Units. Should not shock anyone based on what I wrote. The Academies have thrived in Bowl Games playing teams with no motivation. Western Michigan has a lot of motivation.....and I love a healthy Franklin. Watch out for WR Corey Davis as well. Should be a great game.

gl

 

[THE__PLAY]

GL on your plays Red Elephant. South Alabama is a great play IMO. Hope you hit the big one on WMU

 

[MackDonald]

Good luck Red....keep stirring the course, you are solid...

 

[RedElephants]

This has not been my year

5 Units South Alabama, and for me its -3.5 for 5 Units.

 

[RedElephants]

0-5 for -17 Units. No where to go but UP.

 

[indiana]

Red.......it will turn, your way to solid of a capper for it not to..............looking forward to your thoughts.........indy

 

[RedElephants]

BYU-Memphis Notes

This one is short. BYU only played 1 team with a Top 50 Offense and Defense. They lost to Boise in that one. BYU started the season off playing 7 of 8 Top 60 Defenses. They only played 3 Top 50 Offenses, Boise, Middle Tn St and Cal. Really makes this tough to figure out as Taysom Hill faced most of those Defenses, not Christian Stewart. So there is a real question mark as to what he can do against one. He put 24 against UCF but was shut out after the 5 minute mark of the 3rd quarter and assisted in 21 points against Boise (9 Defensive points) both in losing efforts. The latter part of the Season was filled with bad Defense. BYU is #11 in Punting and #33 in Red Zone Offense. Both teams are solid in Rushing and Passing categories with the exception of one.....BYU is 110 in Pass Defense, alarming since they only faced 3 Top 50 Offenses.

Memphis played 5 top 60 Offenses and 5 Top 60 Defenses. They had two tough losses where they played hard at UCLA and at Ole Miss, and had two decent road wins at Cincinnati and at Temple (good defensive team). One key stat that might help Memphis is Time of Possession. They are 58th and BYU is 110th. Memphis was #1 in Red Zone Offense and #2 in Red Zone Defense. They are 52 in Punting and 20th in Kickoff Returns. They are also #6 in Turnover Margin and #5 in Scoring Defense.

 

[3pointdog]

BYU-Memphis Notes

This one is short. BYU only played 1 team with a Top 50 Offense and Defense. They lost to Boise in that one. BYU started the season off playing 7 of 8 Top 60 Defenses. They only played 3 Top 50 Offenses, Boise, Middle Tn St and Cal. Really makes this tough to figure out as Taysom Hill faced most of those Defenses, not Christian Stewart. So there is a real question mark as to what he can do against one. He put 24 against UCF but was shut out after the 5 minute mark of the 3rd quarter and assisted in 21 points against Boise (9 Defensive points) both in losing efforts. The latter part of the Season was filled with bad Defense. BYU is #11 in Punting and #33 in Red Zone Offense. Both teams are solid in Rushing and Passing categories with the exception of one.....BYU is 110 in Pass Defense, alarming since they only faced 3 Top 50 Offenses.

Memphis played 5 top 60 Offenses and 5 Top 60 Defenses. They had two tough losses where they played hard at UCLA and at Ole Miss, and had two decent road wins at Cincinnati and at Temple (good defensive team). One key stat that might help Memphis is Time of Possession. They are 58th and BYU is 110th. Memphis was #1 in Red Zone Offense and #2 in Red Zone Defense. They are 52 in Punting and 20th in Kickoff Returns. They are also #6 in Turnover Margin and #5 in Scoring Defense.

Why only favored by 2 then?? Seems light doesn't it??

 

[coitus_maximus]

The SOS is what sets this apart. BYU SOS is 71 while memphis is 129. Yes Memphis had UCLA and Ole Miss, but the remainder is cupcake. BYU had opponents not as tough as OLE Miss and UCLA, but overall their opponents have been stronger, with TX, UCF, Boise, Cal. Common opponent is Houston.