read this before you jump on those big public plays...

[Systat]

No road fave of 7+ pts has covered the spread in last 20 yrs with a defense that allows 5.45 or more yards per rushing attempts. The Giants allow more than any other team on that list.

The Giants are very bad in the red zone, both offensively and defensively. Offensively they have 3 TD's in 13 RZ opportunities. Defensively, they allowed 6 TD's in 8 RZ opportunities.

The Giants play their third straight road game. Teams playing third straight road game have a winning percentage of 37.7%.


I will go with Kansas City +9.5


The Bengals won against Pittsburgh for the first time since 2006. They did it with only 273 yards of offense. Next week they play Baltimore, a team that outscored them 51-13 in 2 games last year.

Cleveland is 0-3 against three 3-0 teams. Cincinnati is not as good as Minnesota, Denver and Baltimore. The Browns covered 6 straight as home dogs vs teams with better record.

Believe me, you don't wanna bet on teams that won at least two straight after a home dog win that put them over 500.

I will go with Cleveland +6

 

[MiltonEMCDT]

So what if they are bad in the red zone? if the giants get to the red zone 9 times and the chief get to the red zone 2 times who's gonna win? bad stats on the giants game imo.

 

[Systat]

So what if they are bad in the red zone? if the giants get to the red zone 9 times and the chief get to the red zone 2 times who's gonna win? bad stats on the giants game imo.

First, the Giants will not have 9 RZ opportunities.

Second, the giants will not have 7 more RZ trips than KC.

Third, it is not about winning, it's about covering the spread.

...unless you are on the Giants moneyline.

 

[dirtymoose]

gmen in a blood bath....... just IMHO

 

[barman]

Both of these selections (KC +9.5 and CLE +6.5) have merit for the reasons enuncicated by Systat

I did a simple Tease of KC +15.5 and CLE Under 43.5 myself

Pays 1to1

 

[tenaciousg]

you make some decent points about these 2 games for sure. who knows you could hit them both.

i'm on the giants and the bengals. i've got other games going too.

i'm just tired of trying to look for angles in certain games then betting them and losing. trying to get too cute with it instead of going with my gut. if the giants and bengals lose IMO so be it. I can't stand losing money on bad teams like the cheifs and browns.

if the giants or bengals don't cover I can live with that. but if I lay money on the browns or bengals and they don't cover nothing pisses me off more than not going with my gut instinct and that's happened too often.

like last week I liked the jets alot right away but then started reading too much bullshit into it and took the titans. same thing on the arizona indy game. I liked the colts but then started thinking arizona and took the cards. No more for me.

Good luck.

 

[GunShark]

Same, I'll stick with the Bengals more than the Giants. The only underdog this week that I would bet on would be Tampa Bay against Washington.

At least we know Washington sucks. The Giants and Bengals do not.

 

[GimmeDattt]

While I don't disagree with either one of your plays I do have to mention your reasoning to play against the Giants is moronic.

No road fave of 7+ pts has covered the spread in last 20 yrs with a defense that allows 5.45 or more yards per rushing attempts. The Giants allow more than any other team on that list.
I find this stat hard to beleive. Anyway assuming your not blowing smoke here it has been three fucking games. Do a little research on these games! -Game one the Giants bash the Redskins and the Skins average 4.0 yards per carry on 20 carries for a total of 80 yards. Take out an 8 yard run by the punter on a fake FG and a 16 yard scramble by Jason Campbell against a prevent defense and you have an astounding 56 yards on 18 carries. Good for 3.1 yards per carry.
-Game two the Giants get shredded on the ground by the number one rushing attack in the NFL right now. The Cowboys beat the Giants for 251 yards on 29 carries. Good for 8.1 yards per carry. However, it should be noted that the Cowboys third string running back has more talent then the Chiefs one and two backs put together.
-Game three the Giants manhandle the Bucs on the road for 28 yards on 10 carries good for 2.8 yards per rush.

Now out of this what do you see? Two games where the Giants dominate vs the run and one where they get torn apart. Now do you think the Kansas City run game is more of a reflection of the Redskins and Bucs or the Cowboys. Well, in case you don't know here is something to consider, the Chiefs are going for 3.5 yards per carry on the year and the only reason that number is so high is because they ran for 178 yards on 38 carries against the Raiders.

The Giants are very bad in the red zone, both offensively and defensively. Offensively they have 3 TD's in 13 RZ opportunities. Defensively, they allowed 6 TD's in 8 RZ opportunities.
Is this really fair to say after 12 quarters? The Giants have played three games and were bad in the first two. Last week all three of their scores came from the red zone. Even though they were poor in the red zone they still have put up 23, 33, and 24 points in games while the Chiefs have scored 14, 10, and 24.

The Giants play their third straight road game. Teams playing third straight road game have a winning percentage of 37.7%.
Ok, fair stat but can we note that the Giants hold the record for most consecutive road wins? Can we note this team is 18-3 in their last 21 games away from Giants stadium? This team was built to play on the road and loves every opportunity they get to smack you in the mouth on your own turf.

 

[billhill999]

Both of these selections (KC +9.5 and CLE +6.5) have merit for the reasons enuncicated by Systat

And at the risk of sounding like a suckup, I agree.
Not playing the game, but the dude raises an interesting point.

 

[Twisted]

you may very well be right. Gmen b2b2b blah blah blah but WHY WHY WHY put $$$ on a bad team. So what if it wins this time, I guarantee ya its not profitable bettin shit teams. Chiefs will have to be superior to stay ion this one (is that possible?) while the G Men can be ho hum and still win by 14. Thats why its gambling I guess, ok Im done :missingte GL today :toast: By the way RR is smokin!!

 

[gynecologist]

I have Giants in a teaser, I'm not feeling as good about it after reading what you had to say..

 

[Twisted]

Since this is public plays

Top 10 NFL Public Bets <table class="moduletable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th valign="top">
</th></tr><tr><td><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="http://www.thespread.com/modules/mod_betcharts_top10.css"> <table width="298" border="0"> <tbody><tr class="odd"> <td width="298"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <!-- <tr> <td width="20"> </td> <td colspan="3">2009-10-04 1:00 PM</td> </tr> --> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="10%">#1</td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 209 </td> <td width="62%"> New York Giants </td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 85% </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr class="even"> <td width="298"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <!-- <tr> <td width="20"> </td> <td colspan="3">2009-10-04 1:00 PM</td> </tr> --> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="10%">#2</td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 207 </td> <td width="62%"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 81% </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr class="odd"> <td width="298"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <!-- <tr> <td width="20"> </td> <td colspan="3">2009-10-04 1:00 PM</td> </tr> --> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="10%">#3</td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 203 </td> <td width="62%"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 81% </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr class="even"> <td width="298"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <!-- <tr> <td width="20"> </td> <td colspan="3">2009-10-04 1:00 PM</td> </tr> --> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="10%">#4</td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 216 </td> <td width="62%"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 76% </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr class="odd"> <td width="298"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <!-- <tr> <td width="20"> </td> <td colspan="3">2009-10-04 4:15 PM</td> </tr> --> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="10%">#5</td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 222 </td> <td width="62%"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 75% </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr class="even"> <td width="298"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <!-- <tr> <td width="20"> </td> <td colspan="3">2009-10-04 4:15 PM</td> </tr> --> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="10%">#6</td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 223 </td> <td width="62%"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 69% </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr class="odd"> <td width="298"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <!-- <tr> <td width="20"> </td> <td colspan="3">2009-10-04 4:05 PM</td> </tr> --> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="10%">#7</td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 219 </td> <td width="62%"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 65% </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr class="even"> <td width="298"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <!-- <tr> <td width="20"> </td> <td colspan="3">2009-10-05 8:35 PM</td> </tr> --> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="10%">#8</td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 228 </td> <td width="62%"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 64% </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr class="odd"> <td width="298"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <!-- <tr> <td width="20"> </td> <td colspan="3">2009-10-04 8:20 PM</td> </tr> --> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="10%">#9</td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 225 </td> <td width="62%"> San Diego Chargers </td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 62% </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr class="even"> <td width="298"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <!-- <tr> <td width="20"> </td> <td colspan="3">2009-10-04 4:05 PM</td> </tr> --> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="10%">#10</td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 218 </td> <td width="62%"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td width="14%" align="center"> 58%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[gynecologist]

whats the source?

 

[billhill999]

http://www.thespread.com/index.php?...10/04/2009&rotnum=209&sit=1&back=1&Itemid=652

 

[Twisted]

yea what bill said and from 1 place I use just to give an idea the Saints were higher % at -6.5 then they moved it to 7.5 equaled out some now its currently at 7


<table class="bet" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"># 201 </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 1:00pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Raiders vs Texans (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Raiders 31.32%
Texans 68.68%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 9156 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 203 </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 1:00pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Titans vs Jaguars (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Jaguars 26.09%
Titans 73.91%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 9996 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 205 </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 1:00pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Ravens vs Patriots (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Ravens 52.71%
Patriots 47.29%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 12324 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 207 </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 1:00pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Bengals vs Browns (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Bengals 79.89%
Browns 20.11%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 12528 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 209 </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 1:00pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Giants vs Chiefs (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Giants 84.54%
Chiefs 15.46%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 15572 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 211 </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 1:00pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Lions vs Bears (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Bears 61.94%
Lions 38.06%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 9628 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 213 </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 1:00pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Bucs vs Redskins (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Bucs 38.54%
Redskins 61.46%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 7484 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 215 </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 1:00pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Seahawks vs Colts (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Colts 86.06%
Seahawks 13.94%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 8780 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 217 </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 4:05pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Jets vs Saints (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Saints 65.40%
Jets 34.60%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 11548 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 219 </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 4:05pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Bills vs Dolphins (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Bills 68.60%
Dolphins 31.40%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 7912 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 221 </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 4:15pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Rams vs 49ers (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Rams 14.87%
49ers 85.13%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 9172 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 223 </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 4:15pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Cowboys vs Broncos (Week 4) </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Cowboys 66.32%
Broncos 33.68%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 9276 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 225 </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 8:20pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Chargers vs Steelers (Week 4)(NBC) </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Steelers 40.37%
Chargers 59.63%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 10920 Bets
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> # 227 </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 10/05 8:35pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Packers vs Vikings (Week 4)(ESPN) </td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Packers 36.83%
Vikings 63.17%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_b" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 9036 Bets</td></tr></tbody></table>
I know the Rams r bad but that niners total kinda shocks me