From the Chicago tribune:
Originally posted: September 28, 2008
Phil Rogers' MLB rankings
<TABLE width=515><TBODY><TR><TD>By Phil Rogers, 8:34 p.m.
Editor's note: These picks are the result of statistical analysis weighted toward pitching and defense and performance since the All-Star break. The Tribune used this formula after the regular season in 2007 and correctly picked Boston over Colorado in the World Series and six of the seven postseason series. That analysis gives us Cubs over Boston in the 2008 World Series.
(Last week's ranking)
1. Cubs (3): Picked to go to the World Series by many during spring training, the Lou Crew handled the heat during the regular season, but it's about to get turned up several degrees. It's a veteran team with quality leaders in Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, but there's no getting around the burden it carries with fans. This is a much better team than the one that got within five outs of the World Series in 2003, but Carlos Zambrano has become a question mark and the lineup remains built around guys who were shut down by Arizona in the 2007 playoffs.
2. Red Sox (4): The closest thing to a dynasty at this time, Boston has won two of the last four World Series and is a serious contender again. Jason Bay came up huge after being acquired in the Manny Ramirez trade, which veteran players welcomed. The Red Sox's pitching is set with a rested Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Mike Lowell's hip bears watching.
3. Rays (1): You need a microscope to find the separation between Tampa Bay and Boston, who could meet in the American League Championship Series. The Rays are a good bet to get past the AL Central survivor in the first round. The strength of this team is its ability to stop opponents from scoring, but none of the starters goes into the playoffs on a roll.
4. Dodgers (7): You know Joe Torre loves taking this team to the playoffs when the Yankees couldn't get there behind Joe Girardi, his replacement. Some say the key to the Dodgers' turnaround was the trade for Casey Blake, not the more widely celebrated deal for Ramirez. Either way, the lineup was successfully rebuilt on the fly. Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley are a solid 1-2 combination.
5. Phillies (6): Charlie Manuel's bullpen, anchored by Brad Lidge (41-for-41 in save situations), is the envy of just about every team still playing. First baseman Ryan Howard is a serious MVP candidate after a 48-homer, 146-RBI season, albeit with 199 strikeouts. The Phils have a legitimate four-man rotation.
6. Brewers (15): General manager Doug Melvin made some dubious history by sacking manager Ned Yost on Sept. 15. The move did arrest a slide in which Milwaukee had lost seven of eight games, but no one's bragging about a 6-14 record in non-CC Sabathia starts down the stretch. A shaky bullpen is sometimes exposed by poor fielding.
7. Angels (2): They led the majors in victories but aren't close to being the best team. Like the Cubs, their key is their organizational depth, especially in starting pitching (Jon Garland and Jered Weaver, who combined for 25 wins, work out of the bullpen in the Boston series). The lineup improved dramatically in the second half, thanks in part to Mark Teixeira, but teams with middle-infield questions usually don't go a long way in October.
8. Twins (12): Minnesota has come this far only by backing up more slowly than the White Sox. The Twins have gone 14-20 since Aug. 23 with a young starting rotation looking very ordinary. Batting champ Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are leaned on heavily.
9. White Sox (9): Poised on the edge of extinction, it's hard to see Ozzie Guillen's team doing any damage in October. It's a team badly in need of rest, and at this point the only way to get a break is to be eliminated. The White Sox hit more homers than any other team but badly miss MVP candidate Carlos Quentin.
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Originally posted: September 28, 2008
Phil Rogers' MLB rankings
<TABLE width=515><TBODY><TR><TD>By Phil Rogers, 8:34 p.m.
Editor's note: These picks are the result of statistical analysis weighted toward pitching and defense and performance since the All-Star break. The Tribune used this formula after the regular season in 2007 and correctly picked Boston over Colorado in the World Series and six of the seven postseason series. That analysis gives us Cubs over Boston in the 2008 World Series.
(Last week's ranking)
1. Cubs (3): Picked to go to the World Series by many during spring training, the Lou Crew handled the heat during the regular season, but it's about to get turned up several degrees. It's a veteran team with quality leaders in Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, but there's no getting around the burden it carries with fans. This is a much better team than the one that got within five outs of the World Series in 2003, but Carlos Zambrano has become a question mark and the lineup remains built around guys who were shut down by Arizona in the 2007 playoffs.
2. Red Sox (4): The closest thing to a dynasty at this time, Boston has won two of the last four World Series and is a serious contender again. Jason Bay came up huge after being acquired in the Manny Ramirez trade, which veteran players welcomed. The Red Sox's pitching is set with a rested Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Mike Lowell's hip bears watching.
3. Rays (1): You need a microscope to find the separation between Tampa Bay and Boston, who could meet in the American League Championship Series. The Rays are a good bet to get past the AL Central survivor in the first round. The strength of this team is its ability to stop opponents from scoring, but none of the starters goes into the playoffs on a roll.
4. Dodgers (7): You know Joe Torre loves taking this team to the playoffs when the Yankees couldn't get there behind Joe Girardi, his replacement. Some say the key to the Dodgers' turnaround was the trade for Casey Blake, not the more widely celebrated deal for Ramirez. Either way, the lineup was successfully rebuilt on the fly. Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley are a solid 1-2 combination.
5. Phillies (6): Charlie Manuel's bullpen, anchored by Brad Lidge (41-for-41 in save situations), is the envy of just about every team still playing. First baseman Ryan Howard is a serious MVP candidate after a 48-homer, 146-RBI season, albeit with 199 strikeouts. The Phils have a legitimate four-man rotation.
6. Brewers (15): General manager Doug Melvin made some dubious history by sacking manager Ned Yost on Sept. 15. The move did arrest a slide in which Milwaukee had lost seven of eight games, but no one's bragging about a 6-14 record in non-CC Sabathia starts down the stretch. A shaky bullpen is sometimes exposed by poor fielding.
7. Angels (2): They led the majors in victories but aren't close to being the best team. Like the Cubs, their key is their organizational depth, especially in starting pitching (Jon Garland and Jered Weaver, who combined for 25 wins, work out of the bullpen in the Boston series). The lineup improved dramatically in the second half, thanks in part to Mark Teixeira, but teams with middle-infield questions usually don't go a long way in October.
8. Twins (12): Minnesota has come this far only by backing up more slowly than the White Sox. The Twins have gone 14-20 since Aug. 23 with a young starting rotation looking very ordinary. Batting champ Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are leaned on heavily.
9. White Sox (9): Poised on the edge of extinction, it's hard to see Ozzie Guillen's team doing any damage in October. It's a team badly in need of rest, and at this point the only way to get a break is to be eliminated. The White Sox hit more homers than any other team but badly miss MVP candidate Carlos Quentin.
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