No they don't.
Playing on the ranked road dog vs the unranked home favorite yields the following:
Since 2006/2007 season: 39-21.
2014/15: 3-0
2013/14: 7-2
2012/13: 3-5
2011/12: 5-3
2010/11: 1-1
2009/10: 5-4
2008/09: 5-0
2007/08: 5-2
2006/07: 5-4
This year's winners were Virginia @ VCU, Michigan St @ Notre Dame, and Arkansas @ SMU.
Playing on the ranked road dog vs the unranked home favorite yields the following:
Since 2006/2007 season: 39-21.
2014/15: 3-0
2013/14: 7-2
2012/13: 3-5
2011/12: 5-3
2010/11: 1-1
2009/10: 5-4
2008/09: 5-0
2007/08: 5-2
2006/07: 5-4
This year's winners were Virginia @ VCU, Michigan St @ Notre Dame, and Arkansas @ SMU.
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I have to admit that I semi-agreed with the initial post, but didn't know numbers and Biz's game counts seemed kind of low so I just used a quick query of that and here's what I saw...there will be some fluctuations in the data (depends on who you use for closing lines etc...) but gives you a general picture (relative to the Home Favourite, so they are 0-2 this year ATS, but 2-1 SU).
What to do with this?? Looks like SU is the way to go for the home fav, but honestly I wouldn't touch the spread unless you are getting dog odds. It seems as though the models were extremely tight last season and I haven't seen that change this season, but possibly lean toward playing the Rdog ATS or HFav SU.
Just some thoughts/data for you.
oz
| ATS | SU | |||||
| 34 | 27 | 55.7% | 41 | 21 | 66.1% | |
| 23 | 29 | 44.2% | 28 | 27 | 50.9% | |
| 15 | 21 | 41.7% | 16 | 20 | 44.4% | |
| 24 | 28 | 46.2% | 34 | 19 | 64.2% | |
| 22 | 22 | 50.0% | 28 | 17 | 62.2% | |
| 17 | 20 | 45.9% | 19 | 19 | 50.0% | |
| 22 | 26 | 45.8% | 32 | 19 | 62.7% | |
| 19 | 14 | 57.6% | 22 | 11 | 66.7% | |
| 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 2 | 1 | 66.7% |
What to do with this?? Looks like SU is the way to go for the home fav, but honestly I wouldn't touch the spread unless you are getting dog odds. It seems as though the models were extremely tight last season and I haven't seen that change this season, but possibly lean toward playing the Rdog ATS or HFav SU.
Just some thoughts/data for you.
oz
I use Sports Insights, and filtered Nov/Dec games only. Results based on closing lines. They are 3-0 this year, and I mentioned the 3 games. Which 2 games do you show losing for a 0-2?? 0-2 doesn't seem correct to me.
I know for a fact Arkansas was a winner, because I played them at +4. Won the game outright. Arkansas was #25 that night.
Notre Dame #19 as a 3 pt fav and lost that game outright.
Virginia a point dog @ VCU and won as a #7 ranked team.
Notre Dame #19 as a 3 pt fav and lost that game outright.
Virginia a point dog @ VCU and won as a #7 ranked team.
Sorry to go a little over there, but having lived in Tulsa for as long as I did, and Bill was coach at TU, that's how I got to know him, ya root for friends. Hell, I root for Tubby, had many beers with him at the club, I root for "Calamari" (not Kalamata, lol) when I bet on him, which now I'm questioning. Sure hope the competition watches tonight's film, they aren't unbeatable. GLTA
~T~
they can watch it but won't give them any help. was just a bad spot playing slowest team in nation with big UNC game in a couple days. same as they looked beatable vs BU after the Kansas letdown game. interesting spot will be if they can get up for UCLA in b/w UNC and Lville.
btw, could go down as one of the great coaching jobs of all time getting all these 18-19 year olds to play insane defense
Beating UNC will be a walk in the park....I'm waiting patiently to see the line, if it's low enough, will bet 25% of my roll on it...kinda like "roll tide," lol. Man, been reading everything about UAB last several days, unreal. I hope all those kids find new homes, I assume the NCAA is gonna give them immediate eligibility. Having played college sports, it makes me and I'm sure all in the country sad to hear and see such a story. GL RT
~T~
it isn't a coin flip over the past 9 yeats
