Randizzle's Week 9 NCAAF (47-18-1)(72.3%)(+58.5 Units)

[Randizzle14]

Another sub-par week. :think2:, but those are inevitable and WILL continue to happen throughout the years. Something we just have to accept. On the upside, I still have not had a losing week ATS. BUT, the goal was not achieved last week since I lost 7.5 Units. The Gamecocks hurt me.

My MOTTO "Shit Happens", but consistency and Money Management WILL prevail. Here's a shorter breakdown of week to week. Also note, I have been working on something all season and will be incorporating it into my capping this week. This may result in having a play or two out as early as tonight. Anyway, Best of Luck this weekend.:toast:



Week 2:
Weekly Record:
Premium: 1-0-0 (+5 Units)
Regular Plays: 4-1-0 (+8.8 Units)


Week 3:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units)
Regular Plays: 4-1-1 (+7.8 Units)


Week 4:
Weekly Record:
Premium Plays: 2-0-0 (+10 Units)
Regular Plays: 3-0-0 (+9 Units)

Week 5:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Plays: 5-3-0 (+5.1 Units)
Opinions: 8-2-0

Week 6:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Play: 7-3-0 (+12.3 Units)
Opinions: 3-0-0

Week 7:
Weekly Records:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units)
Regular Plays: 3-3-0 (-1.8 Units)

Week 8
Premium Play: 0-1-0 (-5.5 Units)
Regular Plays : 5-4-0 (-2 Units)


OVERALL YTD:
--------------
Premium Plays: 5-1-0 (83%) (+19.5 Units)
Regular Plays: 31-15-1 (67%) (+39.2 Units)
Opinions: 11-2-0 (85%)

Season YTD= 47-18-1 (72.3%) (+58.5 Units) :toast:


GL, Dizz

 

[darkness79]

First timer

Just wanted to start off by saying "Shit Does Happen" and from what i have seen in your past weeks bro you will make a come back no problem! I took the first half of your picks and got ate up....but all good, lets get um next week.! Keep up the good work

 

[darkness79]

First timer

Hey Rand just wanted to start off by saying "Shit does happen" i took all you're first picks and got ate up...buts its all good from what i have seen in you're past weeks you will make a strong come back this coming week.! Just keep up the damn good work and look forward to more picks

 

[MikeyLo]

Shake it off, everyone has a rough day once in awhile. I'm sure I'll be with you again this week.

 

[Rude]

I know how you feel.

Played a 4 Team Torture/Please teaser on Saturday and had 2 games I liked, but needed only one to complete my final 4 Team Parlay.

You can guess what happend. hno:

Should have done the smart thing and made it only 3 teams. Them's the breaks I guess.

But Fuck Man .... 5 Dimes In the account from this weekend would have been nice! :sad3:

 

[Railbird]

Maybe if you have finals take the week off, over the years myself included if you have outside interference in personal life, makes it more difficult to win.

 

[Randizzle14]

Maybe if you have finals take the week off, over the years myself included if you have outside interference in personal life, makes it more difficult to win.

Never thought about that, but it makes since. Thanks for the advice bud.

 

[Randizzle14]

Early Release!!!!

Early Release!!!!

I have 2 wagers I like right now and want to go ahead and put a couple units on. Will add more later in week if lines move in my favor, but I believe they will move against me. So getting them early.


Game 1
------------
VIRGINIA (4 - 3) at GEORGIA TECH (6 - 1)
Week 9 Saturday, 10/25/2008 3:30 PM

Play Against - Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (VIRGINIA) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival against opponent off a win against a conference rival.
(29-7 since 1992.) (80.6%)

The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 15.1
The average score in these games was: Team 38.1, Opponent 15.9 (Average point differential = +22.2)*
My Math Model predicts them winning by 22.5 points.*
The situation's record this season is:(1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is:(6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).

Virginia is 4-16 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game
VIRGINIA is 2-12 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play
VIRGINIA is 1-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog
VIRGINIA is 1-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog

Overall effiency:
Effiency is very important in Football, offensively and defensively. My effiency ratings have the two teams ranked as the following.
Rating: Georgia Tech: 7th
Rating: Virginia: 90th

Also, I have calculated my own Power Ratings for these Teams. Here are the Rankings.
Georgia Tech: 9th
Virginia: 55th

Coaching Trends:
Groh is 3-14 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival as the coach of VIRGINIA.
Groh is 5-18 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of VIRGINIA.

Trends From Thu. Aug 31, 2006 To Sat. Oct 25, 2008
Virginia Cavaliers are 0-3-0 ATS As Away (10 -> 13.5)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 8-3-0 ATS After 1 Unders (All Lines)

Personally I Really like this game. If line gets to 10 I will make it a PREMIUM Pick.

I am Taking Georgia Tech -12 (2 Units)*

Will probably upgrade at some point this week. Want too see the line movement in this game*

GL, Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Other Leans...In order of Strength

Strong Leans....Most likely atleast 4 or 5 of the will be Plays.


1.Rice (+2)
2.TCU (-31.5)
3.<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">California</st1lace></st1:State> (-18)
4.Troy (-24)
5.Minnesota (Pk)
6.<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Illinois</st1lace></st1:State> (-1)
7.Notre Dame (-11)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
8.MTSU (+11.5)<o></o>
9.Navy (-13)

LOVE THIS WEEKS CARD!!!! GETTING EXCITED!!!!!!!!
:money:

Note*: Have not researched injuries as of yet, which will factor into my final plays. If you have any info about any of these teams and want to share, would love too interact and build my knoweledge.
<o></o>

 

[MistaFlava]

good luck this week dizzle, keep making that $$$

 

[vinnyvegas]

GL RanDiZ...hey from a veteran & recalling last week you had lots of school stuff going on, maybe last week is the type of week you sit on sidelines, try to cap but let it go & get back to it when you have more time. Just a thought. It's a long long marathon so no reason to push it. You seem to be a pretty good capper, just YOUNG compared to others...just a little friendly advice.

Continued success!

 

[Schmengs]

according to my records...

Randizzle, You have had a nice run this year, but didn't you have FSU,
S. Carolina, Duke, Buffalo, Navy, and Iowa this past week....?

If yes, my record shows 1-5 ATS
that is an awful week for you.
Unlike you of late...but just for record keeping purposes, did you document that correctly?

 

[Schmengs]

I take that back

Sorry Randizzle, I missed you late plays Saturday
Didn't mean to doubt you
Keep up the good work
Nice comeback
ope:

 

[gazoo]

Strong Leans....Most likely atleast 4 or 5 of the will be Plays.


1.Rice (+2)
2.TCU (-31.5)
3.<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">California</st1lace></st1:State> (-18)
4.Troy (-24)
5.Minnesota (Pk)
6.<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Illinois</st1lace></st1:State> (-1)
7.Notre Dame (-11)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
8.MTSU (+11.5)<o></o>
9.Navy (-13)

LOVE THIS WEEKS CARD!!!! GETTING EXCITED!!!!!!!!
:money:

Note*: Have not researched injuries as of yet, which will factor into my final plays. If you have any info about any of these teams and want to share, would love too interact and build my knoweledge.
<o></o>

Shake it off. your % for year is still great and I'll continue to make $$ with you. I make my picks first. Then if you're on 'em, I play "em. Not bad so far. Like your Minny and ND picks. Any thoughts on Mizzou rebounding and putting the hammer down -21 at home. THANKS!!:toast:

 

[jacksonjohn]

Early Release!!!!

I have 2 wagers I like right now and want to go ahead and put a couple units on. Will add more later in week if lines move in my favor, but I believe they will move against me. So getting them early.


Game 1
------------
VIRGINIA (4 - 3) at GEORGIA TECH (6 - 1)
Week 9 Saturday, 10/25/2008 3:30 PM

Play Against - Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (VIRGINIA) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival against opponent off a win against a conference rival.
(29-7 since 1992.) (80.6%)

The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 15.1
The average score in these games was: Team 38.1, Opponent 15.9 (Average point differential = +22.2)*
My Math Model predicts them winning by 22.5 points.*
The situation's record this season is:(1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is:(6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).

Virginia is 4-16 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game
VIRGINIA is 2-12 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play
VIRGINIA is 1-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog
VIRGINIA is 1-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog

Overall effiency:
Effiency is very important in Football, offensively and defensively. My effiency ratings have the two teams ranked as the following.
Rating: Georgia Tech: 7th
Rating: Virginia: 90th

Also, I have calculated my own Power Ratings for these Teams. Here are the Rankings.
Georgia Tech: 9th
Virginia: 55th

Coaching Trends:
Groh is 3-14 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival as the coach of VIRGINIA.
Groh is 5-18 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of VIRGINIA.

Trends From Thu. Aug 31, 2006 To Sat. Oct 25, 2008
Virginia Cavaliers are 0-3-0 ATS As Away (10 -> 13.5)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 8-3-0 ATS After 1 Unders (All Lines)

Personally I Really like this game. If line gets to 10 I will make it a PREMIUM Pick.

I am Taking Georgia Tech -12 (2 Units)*

Will probably upgrade at some point this week. Want too see the line movement in this game*

GL, Dizz

What is the the second early release, or did I misunderstand? Thanks for your efforts.

 

[Randizzle14]

Randizzle, You have had a nice run this year, but didn't you have FSU,
S. Carolina, Duke, Buffalo, Navy, and Iowa this past week....?

If yes, my record shows 1-5 ATS
that is an awful week for you.
Unlike you of late...but just for record keeping purposes, did you document that correctly?

Records are accurate, look back at week 7 thread if you wish.....posted BC,SMU,Arizona, and Texas as late games. 4-0 sweep on the night games. I did play them small hence the -7.5 Units. But its all there bud.

Thanks for keeping me honest. But I already am. No reason to lie.

Good Luck Bud

 

[Proman]

Virginia defense, especially the front four, is playing very well right now. Not the same team that got shutout to Duke. Improved QB play as well.

 

[5-0SAT]

Georgia Tech has been :money: for me all year long. It won't change this weekend either. I like the play Randizzle!!! Cheers :toast:

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL randizzle...

 

[MistaFlava]

Keep up the great work Dizz, definitely one of the hottest cappers on the site this season. GL this weekend.