**Randizzle's NFL Week 4**

[Randizzle14]

Game 1
-------
HOUSTON (0 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2008 1:00 PM

Houston comes off a loss to the Titans, and as a casualty of Hurricane Ike, will be playing its third straight road game to open the season. The Texans have owned the ATS edge in this series, 9-3 since ’02. Jacksonville comes off a huge come-from-behind win at Indy which probably saved the season for the Jaguars. They are 12-6 ATS in their previous 18 games at home, and 28-14 ATS all-time as home chalk of 7-points or less. In the two meetings between these clubs in ’07, they averaged a combined 62 PPG.

HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 17-5 ATS off a road win against a division rival since 1992.


I'm Taking Jacksonville -7



Game 2
--------
CLEVELAND (0 - 3) at CINCINNATI (0 - 3)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2008 1:00 PM

Cleveland and Cincinnati both began the 2008 season with AFC North Division title hopes. Hahaha. Slim chance of that happening now. Both teams offenses are struggling, averaging less than 250 YPG.* That's horrible. The Bengals are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 September home games. Head Coach Romeo Crennel’s Browns are 6-2 ATS in their Last 8 divisional home games. Four of last 6 have been UNDER.

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) - a horrible offensive team (<=14 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games.
(52-20 since 1983.)

CLEVELAND is 8-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons.

Bet on Romeo Crennel in his second road game following a loss (5-0 ATS).

I'm Taking Cleveland +3.5

*Lean toward Under here. I dont play totals 1st half of season, but if I did I would take UNDER.

Game 3
--------
WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at DALLAS (3 - 0)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2008 4:15 PM

The Cowboys are on a 0-3 ATS run at home, as well as just 1-5 ATS at home versus division opponents. After the two home wins, Washington will be looking to improve on a 6-11 ATS stretch on the road, including 3-4 ATS vs. NFC East opponents.

Play Against - Favorites of 10.5 or more points (DALLAS) - excellent offensive team (>=5.8 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.9 to 5.4 YPP).
(25-6 over the last 10 seasons.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).

WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons

I'm Taking Washington +11


Maybe more as the week goes on.

Dizz :cripwalk:




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[Ketch]

What's your record in NFL? Know you're doing well in CFB.

 

[Jetplane]

I only agree on WASH, and my system agrees on JAX. *sigh* I better not get my ass kicked this week lol I made a killing yesterday.

 

[Randizzle14]

Ketch, here it all is....

What's your record in NFL? Know you're doing well in CFB.

2006-2007 Handicapping Record ATS 186-126-10 (59.6%) (+91.5 Units)

NCAA Football= 28-15-1 (65%) (+20.4 Units)
NFL Football =11-5-1 (69%) (+9.8 Units)
NBA Basketball =26-18-2 (59.1%) (+6.7 Units)
NCAA Basketball ATS= 103-80-6(57.0%) (+33.3 Units)
NCAA Basketball O/U's= 12-4-0 (75%) (+18.2 Units)
NHL Hockey = 6-4 (56%) (+3.2 Units)
-----------------------------------------------
07-08 Record 96-63-7 (60.4%) (+47 Units)
NCAA Football= 34-22-2 (60%) (+ 12 Units)
NFL Football ATS= 43-30-4 (57%) (+15.2 Units)
MLB Baseball= 8-4-0 (66%) (+6.4 Units)
NCAA Basketball ATS= 9-7-1 (57%) (+5.4 Units)
NBA Basketball= 2-0-0 (+8 Units)
-----------------------------------------------
2008-2009 Season 27-12-1 (72.25%) (+45.3 Units)

NCAA Football - 16-2-1 (86.6%) (+44.8 Units)
NFL Football-11-10-0 (55%) (+0.5 Units)

OVERALL= 309-200-18 (60.32%) (+192.8 Units)

DIZZ:cripwalk:

 

[Jetplane]

Question: How do we know how many units you put on a game? I'm just gonna blind follow you when I don't have time to cap lol.

 

[Randizzle14]

I will post it

Question: How do we know how many units you put on a game? I'm just gonna blind follow you when I don't have time to cap lol.

I always put together some type of Final Card that has my plays and Units wagered. Or, I may start putting the amount in analysis. EIther way, I will let you guys know.

:toast:

 

[gmoney72]

I like Tampa. How do you feel about it?

 

[Randizzle14]

GB, Tampa

I like Tampa. How do you feel about it?

I'm glad you mentioned this, I was unsure about this game, but I decided to look at it more in depth and to be honest, I like the packers here. Yes, the Packers have lost 5 of their last 6 in Tampa, but since Mccarthy took over, they are 13-4 ats in road games. Also, GB IS a GOOD team this year, and will be looking to bounce back after a loss to possibly the best team in the NFL last week. Also if I were you I would look at the UNDER here. Looks pretty good. Anyway, I think I may make GB a play. Sorry to disagree, your thoughts on the game would be much appreciated tho.

 

[MonsterBuck]

Very impressive record! Keep them winners coming :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

**final Card**

Game 1
-------
HOUSTON (0 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2008 1:00 PM

Houston comes off a loss to the Titans, and as a casualty of Hurricane Ike, will be playing its third straight road game to open the season. The Texans have owned the ATS edge in this series, 9-3 since ’02. Jacksonville comes off a huge come-from-behind win at Indy which probably saved the season for the Jaguars. They are 12-6 ATS in their previous 18 games at home, and 28-14 ATS all-time as home chalk of 7-points or less. In the two meetings between these clubs in ’07, they averaged a combined 62 PPG.

HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 17-5 ATS off a road win against a division rival since 1992.


I'm Taking Jacksonville -7 (3 Units)



Game 2
--------
CLEVELAND (0 - 3) at CINCINNATI (0 - 3)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2008 1:00 PM

Cleveland and Cincinnati both began the 2008 season with AFC North Division title hopes. Hahaha. Slim chance of that happening now. Both teams offenses are struggling, averaging less than 250 YPG.* That's horrible. The Bengals are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 September home games. Head Coach Romeo Crennel’s Browns are 6-2 ATS in their Last 8 divisional home games. Four of last 6 have been UNDER.

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) - a horrible offensive team (<=14 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games.
(52-20 since 1983.)

CLEVELAND is 8-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons.

Bet on Romeo Crennel in his second road game following a loss (5-0 ATS).

I'm Taking Cleveland +3.5 (2 Units)

*Lean toward Under here. I dont play totals 1st half of season, but if I did I would take UNDER.

Game 3
--------
WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at DALLAS (3 - 0)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2008 4:15 PM

The Cowboys are on a 0-3 ATS run at home, as well as just 1-5 ATS at home versus division opponents. After the two home wins, Washington will be looking to improve on a 6-11 ATS stretch on the road, including 3-4 ATS vs. NFC East opponents.

Play Against - Favorites of 10.5 or more points (DALLAS) - excellent offensive team (>=5.8 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.9 to 5.4 YPP).
(25-6 over the last 10 seasons.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).

WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons

I'm Taking Washington +11 (3 Uniys)Game 4
---------
SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2008 1:00 PM

Head Coach Mike Nolan’s team has put up back-to-back win to go to 2-1. They seem to have picked up new Offensive Coordinators Mike Martz’s offense well, and are averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt thus far, a real key to NFL success.

Play Against - Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.
(82-39 since 1983.) (67.8%)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).

Play Against - Home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - good passing team - averaging 230 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games.
(43-17 over the last 10 seasons.) (71.7%)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).

I'm Taking SF +6 (3 Units)

Game 5
-------
ARIZONA (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2008 1:00 PM

Cardinals are on a 6-0 ATS run vs. the AFC. The Jets are off the Monday night game at San Diego so will be on a short week of preparation. Perhaps the change in routine can help their own September fortunes, as they are 6-20 ATS in their Last 26 home games in this first month. This will be the first meeting between these teams since ’04, and the road team has won three straight ATS in the series.

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - off a road loss, in September games.
(68-31 since 1983.) (68.7%)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (66-42)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average score in these games was: Team 21.8, Opponent 18.1 (Average point differential = +3.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 36 (34% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (5-1).

I'm Taking Arizona +2 (3 Units)

:toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

addition

Game 6
--------
ATLANTA (2 - 1) at CAROLINA (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2008 1:00 PM

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=copy noWrap width="5%">ATLANTA (ATS)</TD><TD class=copy noWrap width="45%">

(20%)</TD><TD width="5%">OVER

</TD><TD class=copy noWrap width="45%">

(72%)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=copy noWrap>CAROLINA (ATS)</TD><TD class=copy noWrap>

(80%)</TD><TD class=copy noWrap>UNDER</TD><TD class=copy noWrap>

(28%)

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(44-17 since 1983.) (72.1%*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (24-37)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.2, Opponent 21.7 (Average point differential = -2.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22 (36.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (22-5).

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>Games played at CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons.</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">ATLANTA is 2-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons </TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">ATLANTA is 2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons </TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons </TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">The average score in these games was ATLANTA 20, CAROLINA 10</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">The average spread in these games was CAROLINA favored by 3.5 points.</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">The average total in these games was 36.8 points.

11 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Additionally there seems to be reverse line movement in this Game Favoring the Falcons.

I'm Taking Atlanta +7

*Opinion on UNDER as well. GL
:toast:

 

[DaiJoe]

bol lil weezy

 

[Randizzle14]

Good Luck Guys, Lets Cash!!

 

[manchild]

You should take your money to a better sportsbook,bodog juice is a joke!!

 

[Randizzle14]

update

update
Well another typical NFL week for me, I need to quit trying to cap NFL the same way as college. Just does not work. Hopefully improvement in the NFL is in the near futyre. I WILL master this great challenge. In good time.

Randizzle's NFL Week 4

I'm Taking Jacksonville -7 (3 Units) (loss)
I'm Taking Cleveland +3.5 (2 Units) (WINNER)
*Lean toward Under here. I dont play totals 1st half of season, but if I did I would take UNDER. (Woulda won)
I'm Taking Washington +11 (3 Units) (WINNER)
I'm Taking SF +6 (3 Units) (loss)
I'm Taking Arizona +2 (3 Units) (loss)
I'm Taking Atlanta +7 (1 Unit) (loss)

A Fantastic 2-4-0 (-5.5 Units)......Sorry Fellas, I'm still trying to figure the NFL out this year, hopefully I will catch fire soon. :think2:

I think I am going to restructure my process of capping NFL games, and see if I can find any success in that. Because right now, I am obviously not doing it the correct way. May have a play tonight, but i'm not sure if you want to play or fade it at this point.

GL Everyone DIZZ :toast:

 

[Jetplane]

NP dude, i went 7-3 but i lost money haha. Just keep it up in NCAAF! I had Atlanta also... those fucks really screwd up my day with a lot of parlays on them.

 

[Randizzle14]

I dont usually play totals

But I cant decide on a Balt/Pitt spread, so im fading the public and taking the under for just 1 unit. GL

:toast: