Randizzle's NCAAF Week 6 *(20-5-2 80% YTD)*

[Randizzle14]

Game 1
-------
FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 3) at MIDDLE TENN ST (1 - 3)
Week 6 Tuesday, 9/30/2008 8:00 PM

The Owls come into this contest 8-3 ATS as conference visitors. The Blue Raiders are already 0-2 in Sun Belt play and have to win out in league play to entertain any chance of winning conference. Mid. Tenn. State is 1-4 ATS in last five games after allowing 30 or more points. These teams have played Under in 4 of 5 meetings. Additionally, FAU is averaging 4.2 YPR this season, while The Blue Raiders are averaging 2.0 YPR.

Schnellenberger is 9-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of FLA ATLANTIC.
The average score was FLA ATLANTIC 26.6, OPPONENT 20.1

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>Here is a summary of past results against the spread in games where the line movement was similar to:</TD></TR><TR><TD class=matchupSubHeader>Opening Line = -1.5, Closing Line = -2.5
Over the last 3 seasons, the road underdog has covered the spread 19 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 7 times.
Edge against the spread=FLA ATLANTIC

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>Here is a summary of past ATS and Over/Under results in games where the closing line and closing total were similar to:</TD></TR><TR><TD class=matchupSubHeader>Closing Line = -2.5, Closing Total = 48
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 26 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 6 times.
Edge against the spread=FLA ATLANTIC</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Over the last 3 seasons, the road underdog has covered the spread 7 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 1 times.
Edge against the spread=FLA ATLANTIC

<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR class=HeadOrange id=header><TD id=info_header width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=score_header width=62>Time
</TD><TD id=team_header width=169>Team
</TD><TD id=bets_header width=56># Bets
</TD><TD id=spreadpct_header width=50>Spread
</TD><TD id=mlpct_header width=50>ML
</TD><TD id=parlaypct_header width=50>Parlay
</TD><TD id=oupct_header width=50>OU
</TD><TD width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh2 style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(/images/head_mid_changed.gif)" onclick=HighlightColumn(this,2); width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh9 style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(/images/head_mid_changed.gif)" onclick=HighlightColumn(this,9); width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh18 style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(/images/head_mid_changed.gif)" onclick=HighlightColumn(this,18); width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh13 style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(/images/head_mid_changed.gif)" onclick=HighlightColumn(this,13); width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh21 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,21); width=106>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh12 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,12); width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh10 style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(/images/head_mid_changed.gif)" onclick=HighlightColumn(this,10); width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh6 style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(/images/head_mid_changed.gif)" onclick=HighlightColumn(this,6); width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh20 style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(/images/head_mid_changed.gif)" onclick=HighlightColumn(this,20); width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh5 style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(/images/head_mid_changed.gif)" onclick=HighlightColumn(this,5); width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh17 style="BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(/images/head_mid_changed.gif)" onclick=HighlightColumn(this,17); width=75>
</TD></TR><TR id=e141397 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e141397', event)"><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=score width=62>9/30
7:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=169>301 Florida Atlantic
302 Middle Tenn St
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>15024
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>42%
58%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>85%
15%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>36%
64%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>n/a
n/a
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I believe The wrong team is favored here,

I'm Taking Florida Atlantic +3 (3 Units)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

More To come throughout the week. GL

:toast:

 

[gmoney72]

I'm with you. Like your style. Will keep looking for your picks all season.

 

[vinnyvegas]

RanD,

If you look at stats alone, the correct team is FAV. I run a program that is fairly dead on & has been for years. But I do not look at stats alone but this tool usually tells me based on stats alone what the line should be versus what Vegas throws out. Lots of other stuff to look at but this is black/white pure stats of every category both O/D.

Just as an FYI, MTNST is DD FAV using my program. Not 100% accurate but again a tool showing value on stats & line discrepancies if any. I've seen this type of output & it means nothing or is completely wrong, hence I'm not making millions with it.

Good luck with your pick.

Just wanted to add some insight.

Peace

 

[Jetplane]

vinny, has ur prog been right about MTSU all year though? Mine has been on and off and for the most part it's pretty good too. MTSU had games they should have easily covered but failed and viceverso so... j/w

 

[Randizzle14]

Thanks

RanD,

If you look at stats alone, the correct team is FAV. I run a program that is fairly dead on & has been for years. But I do not look at stats alone but this tool usually tells me based on stats alone what the line should be versus what Vegas throws out. Lots of other stuff to look at but this is black/white pure stats of every category both O/D.

Just as an FYI, MTNST is DD FAV using my program. Not 100% accurate but again a tool showing value on stats & line discrepancies if any. I've seen this type of output & it means nothing or is completely wrong, hence I'm not making millions with it.

Good luck with your pick.

Just wanted to add some insight.

Peace

Thanks for your insight. WHen I made that statement, it was more of an opinion and than straight stats. Probably should keep my opinion to myself when dealing with money and stick to numbers. In any case thanks for the heads up, and if I may ask, what program is it? Can you share? If you want PM me and I would love to hear more about it, I always want to add as many dimensions to my capping as possible.
:toast:

JetPlane, I am very interested in yours as well. If you would like to PM me and talk about it, I welcome thee. Thanks for your contributions, I have noticed you are on a good run as well.
:toast:

 

[DaiJoe]

bol today

 

[Randizzle14]

Tuesday Update

I'm Taking Florida Atlantic +3 (3 Units) (WINNER):toast:

Will have more plays later.

:cripwalk:

 

[Jetplane]

Kick. Their. Ass. >

 

[Fergus]

the 'dizz takin' care of bizz...

 

[GarryP]

Great job, sir!

Now we await your pick for Boise State game...

 

[gmoney72]

Thanks for the winner!

 

[vinnyvegas]

Thanks for your insight. WHen I made that statement, it was more of an opinion and than straight stats. Probably should keep my opinion to myself when dealing with money and stick to numbers. In any case thanks for the heads up, and if I may ask, what program is it? Can you share? If you want PM me and I would love to hear more about it, I always want to add as many dimensions to my capping as possible.
:toast:

JetPlane, I am very interested in yours as well. If you would like to PM me and talk about it, I welcome thee. Thanks for your contributions, I have noticed you are on a good run as well.
:toast:

Nice winner Rand...& I understand you were just making opine. I figured you value or can find humor in some peoples comments as long as they are constructive & possibly value-added or as I said humorous. It sucks having tools bash & make stupid comments on winners/losers you pick. Either wish well, congrat, give insight or opine but do so w/ class. I'd rather u win every game than lose.

I'll PM u.

JetP, I run it for any game I potentially wager. Again, it's more to see if there's any value in a line that Vegas has vs what proggy spits out, then my work begins on actually capping w/ many other factors. As you can see from last nights game DD FAV wasn't the case...HOWEVER, a little from what I saw, MTENNST shot themselves in the foot several times & could have easily won by DDs but it's football & there are things you just cannot cap like not being able to punch it in. I recall at 1 pt MTST stat was 20+ times in FAU territory & NO PTS. Shockingly enough they still won. I know of ML bettors that $hit when that Hail Mary was answered.

GL rest of week guys.

RanD, continued SUCCESS!!

 

[Randizzle14]

Nice winner Rand...& I understand you were just making opine. I figured you value or can find humor in some peoples comments as long as they are constructive & possibly value-added or as I said humorous. It sucks having tools bash & make stupid comments on winners/losers you pick. Either wish well, congrat, give insight or opine but do so w/ class. I'd rather u win every game than lose.

I'll PM u.

JetP, I run it for any game I potentially wager. Again, it's more to see if there's any value in a line that Vegas has vs what proggy spits out, then my work begins on actually capping w/ many other factors. As you can see from last nights game DD FAV wasn't the case...HOWEVER, a little from what I saw, MTENNST shot themselves in the foot several times & could have easily won by DDs but it's football & there are things you just cannot cap like not being able to punch it in. I recall at 1 pt MTST stat was 20+ times in FAU territory & NO PTS. Shockingly enough they still won. I know of ML bettors that $hit when that Hail Mary was answered.

GL rest of week guys.

RanD, continued SUCCESS!!

Yes I agree. I don't mind anyone giving me insight on a game. That's why we are here. I want to learn learn learn. Even if I think I know alot, I know someone else knows something I don't and I value the fact they take their time to introduce me to new thoughts and ideas. Anyway thanks for your input, and hopefully we can kill the booksw this weekend. AGAIN!!

:toast:

 

[gmoney72]

Any play tonight Ran?

 

[MightyGinseng]

Great call once again. I was on Fla money line and wanted to punt a baby after last night. Keep up the good work.

 

[GTROCKMAN]

Helluva record Randizzle, Keep it up !!!!!!! :drink:

 

[Randizzle14]

hahahahaha

Great call once again. I was on Fla money line and wanted to punt a baby after last night. Keep up the good work.

:missingte

 

[Randizzle14]

Any play tonight Ran?

Still looking it over, not sure if i will play anything tonight, but possibly. I'll keep you updated. :toast:

 

[fearthis]

I always enjoy your write up. BOL this week Randi

 

[shizzle]

good job so far sir