Rams overrated D exposed

Serbone · Monday at 12:06 PM

Again:

Teams that have the playoffs almost "made" this time of the year often "coast".

Rams have it made, still have over 96% chance of making the playoffs with 5 games to go.

It was a letdown early int the day game on the east coast against a team that still has an outside shot at the playoffs.

Eagles & Denver were in the same situation as it relates to > 90% chance, with 6, now 5, to go.

So, 0-3 so far with the four teams in this situation.

Same with the Patriots tonight.

Avocado33 · Monday at 12:09 PM

Serbone said:
Again:

Teams that have the playoffs almost "made" this time of the year often "coast".

Rams have it made, still have over 96% chance of making the playoffs with 5 games to go.

It was a letdown early game on the east coast against a team that still has an outside shot at the playoffs.

Eagles & Denver were in the same situation as it relates to > 90% chance, with 6, now 5, to go.

So, 0-3 so far with the four teams in this situation.

Same with the Patriots tonight.

Gotta think these teams are all pretty motivated to keep foot on the gas though

Rams entered that game with really good shot at the 1 seed, and obviously want to stave off Seattle/SF for the division

Denver/New England both vying for 1 seeds and locking their divisions

Philadelphia was coming off an embarrassing loss; surprised they looked so flat in that spot, coming back home

itchy_pickle · Monday at 12:36 PM

Teams (Rams) that are in a close battle for their division aren't "coasting". They understand how important winning the division is due playoff purposes and also a top 2 seed for that matter.

Avocado33 · Monday at 12:38 PM

itchy_pickle said:
Teams (Rams) that are in a close battle for their division aren't "coasting". They understand how important winning the division is due playoff purposes and also a top 2 seed for that matter.

Top 1 seed

Serbone · Monday at 12:48 PM

I have noticed

for decades

that the players on teams at the top let up for a game or two with 4-5-6 games to go despite the nonsense that broadcasters spew about seeding to increase fan interest, the players at this point on the top teams do not think much about a #1 seed, yet, despite the hype (SEE Eagles, Rams, Denver)

AND, even funnier, with a game or two to go, lower level teams: "Oh if they win they can get to a 5th seed instead of a 6th"

Bozzie · Monday at 12:50 PM

Divisional odds

Rams -145
Seattle + 210
49ers +500

Seattle Rams in two weeks.

Avocado33 · Monday at 1:03 PM

Bozzie said:
Divisional odds

Rams -145
Seattle + 210
49ers +500

Seattle Rams in two weeks.

49ers really hanging around

That's where the value is IMO

itchy_pickle · Monday at 1:04 PM

Bozzie said:
Divisional odds

Rams -145
Seattle + 210
49ers +500

Seattle Rams in two weeks.

Sea the better team. It will all come down to Darnold. Sea also the tougher remaining schedule. Niners have a great shot at those odds.

Bozzie · Monday at 1:08 PM

Avocado33 said:
49ers really hanging around

That's where the value is IMO

No doubt..

itchy_pickle · Monday at 1:09 PM

Serbone said:
I have noticed

for decades

that the players on teams at the top let up for a game or two with 4-5-6 games to go despite the nonsense that broadcasters spew about seeding to increase fan interest, the players at this point on the top teams do not think much about a #1 seed, yet, despite the hype (SEE Eagles, Rams, Denver)

AND, even funnier, with a game or two to go, lower level teams: "Oh if they win they can get to a 5th seed instead of a 6th"

I agree 5th and 6th seeds doesn't matter. A 7 seed does matter. No team wants that seed but they'll surely take it to get in the playoffs.

Serbone · Monday at 2:14 PM

Bozzie said:
Divisional odds

Rams -145
Seattle + 210
49ers +500

Seattle Rams in two weeks.

Before this weekend playoff odds:

NE 97% if they lose, 99.9% if they win
LAR 96-99.6 (L ATS)
Philly 96-99 (L)
Denver 91-98 (L)

Do you see a pattern?

Seattle needed their game, 73%-93%, agree LAR-Seattle is going to be a great game

Avocado33 · Monday at 2:25 PM

itchy_pickle said:
Sea the better team. It will all come down to Darnold. Sea also the tougher remaining schedule. Niners have a great shot at those odds.

Really hard to trust Darnold

Avocado33 · Monday at 2:27 PM

Serbone said:
I have noticed

for decades

that the players on teams at the top let up for a game or two with 4-5-6 games to go despite the nonsense that broadcasters spew about seeding to increase fan interest, the players at this point on the top teams do not think much about a #1 seed, yet, despite the hype (SEE Eagles, Rams, Denver)

AND, even funnier, with a game or two to go, lower level teams: "Oh if they win they can get to a 5th seed instead of a 6th"

Agreed with the lower level seeds it doesn’t matter much

But when home playoff games and 1 seeds are all on the line then you gotta think there’s effort

I do somewhat agree that it’s hard to be fully locked in for the “third quarter” of the season or so in general. Injuries, fatigue, etc but not quite close enough to the finish line

itchy_pickle · Monday at 3:02 PM

Serbone said:
Before this weekend playoff odds:

NE 97% if they lose, 99.9% if they win

LAR 96-99.6 (L ATS)

Philly 96-99 (L)

Denver 91-98 (L)

Do you see a pattern?

Seattle needed their game, 73%-93%, agree LAR-Seattle is going to be a great game

All those teams you mentioned can be a 1/2 seed or a 5/6 seed. It matters tremendously.

SheriffJoe · Monday at 3:07 PM

No, the Rams' D isn't overexposed.

It's the NFL - nobody looks like a Super Bowl contender every single week.

Sucks for anyone who was thinking "blowout" and laid double digits against a bottom-feeder like Carolina, but it is what it is.

Serbone · Monday at 3:15 PM

Avocado33 said:
Agreed with the lower level seeds it doesn’t matter much

But when home playoff games and 1 seeds are all on the line then you gotta think there’s effort

I do somewhat agree that it’s hard to be fully locked in for the “third quarter” of the season or so in general. Injuries, fatigue, etc but not quite close enough to the finish line

NE 97% if they lose, 99.9% if they win
LAR 96-99.6 (L ATS)
Philly 96-99 (L)
Denver 91-98 (L)

What I am saying is with 5-6 games to go the #1 and # 2 seeds players are not yet focused on obtaining the #1. Sure the official statements from the teams and the league and the broadcasters say that ad nauseum.

This weekend the 3 that have played did not cover the spread, and NE laying 7 might not cover for this and other reasons.

Sure they play hard but teams like Houston and Seattle and SF and Buffalo played at 100% as I say "hair on fire" the whole game.

Eagles-Rams-Denver had a wakeup call and likely will play harder this next game, but they sure are not hurting, their chances are still >96%. Players figure all they have to do is win another game.

uscmd · Monday at 3:55 PM

Back to the original question.....rams defense. 10th-15th vs run and pass (ypg), but 2nd in points allowed. 1 point behind Hou.

As for playoffs, they'll be in. Question is, in the NFC, who would you take su on a neutral field? Phil, Sea, Chi, Dal, GB? Problem is, without the 1 seed, eventually they could get an ice bowl game.

No mention of rams bell cow rb, Williams leaving game before half, with ankle injury. He returned, but his contribution was limited. L 2 yrs 31 td's, tied for most among rbs. Hes crucial. without him, Stafford faces tighter targets. McVay is outstanding.

Car is a weird team. high highs, low lows. Now 1/2 game behind TB, and Mayfields shoulder.

Capping the last 5 weeks, is an entirely different animal. Many more variables, including making sure you are close to 100% health wise, for post season. Like Williams, hes a great example, his health for ps is more important than the 1-4 seed. Last week they put 3 starters on IR. For just this reason.

Nov 19...----> IR. All key players