Question for the community

[NYReb]

There were a couple of games I can think of offhand where the line moved significantly near the end of the week. One, Notre Dame opened at -7 and that went down to 4 before the game started. The other was the Nebraska line which went from 10 to 8. Both games won handily according to the line movement, as Mich St won straight up and Nebraska only won by a point.

My question is do most of you notice that this is common -- that significant line movements near the end don't usually affect the outcome of the game? Is it that the line is so far off to begin with that the movement is just an adjustment and usually doesn't really affect anything?

I'd love to know if this is a pattern. All comments will be appreciated.

 

[edmac164]

I play with a local who rarely moves the lines so I check to see big moves as the day goes on and there were two more with 3-4 point moves. Toledo dropped to 241/2 and Penn St jumped from 22 to 261/2 before kickoff. They both won.

 

[ElIguana]

Reb, as you know, Pops69 is the guru of line movement and fading public opinion, maybe he will weigh in here.

Congrats on a big weekend, Buddy! I went against you and took Tennessee...to my chagrin! I also had the under, so damage was minimal. GL this week.

 

[pops69]

tks el I, i try to make it my business to stay on top of all lines vs the open and mid and end if possible. as you asked about at the end moves vs right after the open, here's the recap below.

i'm not counting games like florida which opened at sd at -3 but closed at -7 because it went to -6- almost right after the official open. so other than that here what happened to the 5 games this weekend with major moves of 1 point or more.

minn opened at 31, and stayed until about 2 hrs before game and closed 34-won

calif opened -19- stayed around 21, than closed at 23-lost

indiana opened -5 moved to around -3 and closed at P-lost

Penn St opened 24 dropped to around 22-, and closed a -25-won

toledo opened at 28 stayed around 28- and closed at 27-lost(now this game was interesting as it was one of my WTS large MP fade plays, and I bet it Temple +28- large at the casino here in LV right b4 game time, and it only dropped a half point. When I got back home late that night I saw that it closed at bodog at 27 so that is what i used as the closing line) I think that some of the smaller offs got hit hard with owl bets and adjusted large to get money to the other side. i also checked with some of the larger casino regarding this, and they did not have that much total $ going the other way, so i think some of it was specific to diff locations vs the world in general

in my opinion they as as much wrong vs right, and are a factor of tout services releasing the same game as goy etc

gl

 

[AlwaysKeen]

I've noticed that a lot of time services put out their play's late and that's the cause for a lot of these line movements...

 

[pops69]

service plays

most will give them out a couple of hours b4 the game, and some try to scam more money with early, mid and late plays so that they can keep the money coming in. but many put them all out early in the morning for the entire day as well. it's just when a few wind up on the same side that you sometime get that late movement. if you try to lay down 110k a few min b4 game time, most will not take it unless you have already approved bet limits

 

[pops69]

ny forgot the nd which opened -6- stayed at 6 until an hour or so b4 and dropped to 4-. dont see that as very un natural for a ND game, as ND has a large big money following so line goes or stays on them early and drops at the end.

did not see any king of movement with the pitt & nb game as it neb opened -8 and went to -9- 10 and closed 10 at game time

 

[hellah10]

Toledo Temple was a big move

30 - 24

 

[AlwaysKeen]

good thread...

 

[pops69]

toledo vs temple

hellah10: i did not see that large move you are talking about as i was at the casino, and in fact did bet this game a double limit bet about 20 min b4 game time and got 28- as it was one of my fade bets. Later that night I looked at the closing lines at bodog (not the largest off shore but a big fav house, at it was 27) I have no way of knowing what wsex was, as they remove game after the game goes off, but they handle large amounts of $$$. Also check with 2 of the larger casino's out here and they only had 1 bet on temple over 10k, and no large amounts of money temple b4 the game started. So i have no idea as to who had the 24 you are talking about and the size of those bet operations etc

 

[hellah10]

CRIS and Pinnacle dropped to 24

a few people in therx hit the middle

 

[HinesWard86]

On 5Dimes, the Southern Illinois-Western Michigan game moved from Western Michigan -8 to Southern Illinois -6 over the course of this past week. That 14 point swing is the biggest ive seen in CFB.

 

[pops69]

dont know how big CRIS and Pinn are or size and amount of bets, so cant comment. you need more info from large $$$ off shores and casino.

I do know that if i had seen a 24 i would have been all over toledo. I also know that if the casino's here had that much action on temple to cause that kind of line move they would have taken it off the board (unless the money was from pre approved large bettors)

 

[pops69]

ward86

what week or year was that game, i cant recall it. Was it a initial post error, or an official open line

that's one hell of a line move though if it was not a mistake or caused by susp or arrest or injuries etc

 

[AlwaysKeen]

yeah Hines...that's pretty crazy...I've never really heard of anything like that...was there a big injury or something?...

 

[freddy66]

cris and pinn are no doubt two of the biggest and the sharpest out there.most all of those late,sudden and large line movements are steam.

 

[freddy66]

cris and pinn are no doubt two of the biggest and the sharpest out there.most all of those late,sudden and large line movements are steam.

 

[freddy66]

cris and pinn are no doubt two of the biggest and the sharpest out there.most all of those late,sudden and large line movements are steam.

 

[Insiders]

Reb.

Only problem with your stateing that Nebraska went back to 8 was 8 was the opener. It opened 8 wnet to 10.5 then back to 8. Now ND opened 7 and went straight down as it was too high to begin with. Nebraska on the other hand opened to high, went higher, then the "buy back" folks sent it back to the opener as there was Huge late money on Pitt here.
So in sumation...The wiseguys and the public thought that ND was giveing up to much in the first place.
Nebraksa attrated early wiseguy money, then the public hoped on the train, the the same bunch of wiseguys that sent the number from 8 to 10 and 10.5 bought there money back at at better number an probably more of it.
That game had BW fooling around written ALL over it.