Hi Historically it is pretty even. Looked at since 2007 and it is 23-30 ( F vs Dog) or ~67% the D covers.
http://killersports.com/nfl.py/query?output=default&sdql=line+=+5+and+season+>+2007&sid=guest
http://killersports.com/nfl.py/query?output=default&sdql=line+=+5+and+season+>+2007&sid=guest
Ven, here's a picture of the Fives. [Every +point represents a Favorite Cover, while a negative point represents a Dog cover.] It confirms what exactly jgm4661 said (who astutely noted that it's even over the longer term)...Nevertheless, I like seeing it in a chart: I wonder how many Trend-Suckers in 2007 pointed to Favorites covering (at +12 at that time) and said it was a good play. As you can see, you'd have been buying "Favorites covering 5 point spreads" at its peak...only to suffer the bad draw down since 2007.
If you are going to bet Fives, here's a couple formulas that work out well...(and yeah it's a little math intensive, but it works):
A. If you are dealing with a Home Favorite, take (a) .0067 and subtract from it the (b) Sine of the Over/Under quote * (-.9375)...i.e. Sin[O/U * (-.9375)] to the 6th power.
Making it neater and repeating (a).0067-(b)(Sin[O/U*(-.9375)])^6 If that figure is a positive number go FAVORITE. If Negative, go DOG.
B. If you are dealing with a Road Favorite, take (a) .8772 and subtract from it (b) from above, so that you have:
(a) .8772-(b)(Sin[O/U*(-.9375)])^6 If your answer is positive, go FAVORITE. If Negative, go DOG.
I could tell you how I calculated the constants (i.e. the ("a") in both formulas, but I've done enough here. Not that past results are indicative of the future, but this formula has worked at 60%...and that is out of sample and randomized. I've used it myself with the same good results. I don't mind sharing it because there just aren't that many Fives (235 since 1985) and Neon Bets is new here (as well as the net). And just like Dale Mother F*ing Carnegie....We want to make friends and influence people.
If you are going to bet Fives, here's a couple formulas that work out well...(and yeah it's a little math intensive, but it works):
A. If you are dealing with a Home Favorite, take (a) .0067 and subtract from it the (b) Sine of the Over/Under quote * (-.9375)...i.e. Sin[O/U * (-.9375)] to the 6th power.
Making it neater and repeating (a).0067-(b)(Sin[O/U*(-.9375)])^6 If that figure is a positive number go FAVORITE. If Negative, go DOG.
B. If you are dealing with a Road Favorite, take (a) .8772 and subtract from it (b) from above, so that you have:
(a) .8772-(b)(Sin[O/U*(-.9375)])^6 If your answer is positive, go FAVORITE. If Negative, go DOG.
I could tell you how I calculated the constants (i.e. the ("a") in both formulas, but I've done enough here. Not that past results are indicative of the future, but this formula has worked at 60%...and that is out of sample and randomized. I've used it myself with the same good results. I don't mind sharing it because there just aren't that many Fives (235 since 1985) and Neon Bets is new here (as well as the net). And just like Dale Mother F*ing Carnegie....We want to make friends and influence people.
When you make a statement about ROAD FAVORITES writ large (i.e. "I can go back 40 yrs"), you are talking about a time series (even if you don't know it).
So...when you state "a ROAD FAVORITE laying 5 has always been a kiss of death for the road favorite", that really is, at best--a meaningless/useless statement. More often than not--unfortunately--it's misleading and harmful.
Since we are talking about a time series, it depends on when you begin. If you go back to 1974 and simply tally up figures to the present, then yes, you are correct. But who cares?
Because, if you do the same thing since 2006 you're flat-out wrong. [And yeah, in this case, the past 8 years are more relevant and significant than the past 40.]
But wait BernieVegas---there's hope! If you go back to 2009--you're right!
Blah, blah, blah...
We can pick out starting points to prove whatever point we want--and we can dress it up by calling it a "trend", (hence the term, Trend-Sucker").
Here's a chart of the performance of 5 point road favorites since 1985.
I'm telling you right now...if I had to make this play over the next several years, I am betting on a reversion and that 5 point road favorites will out-perform. Thankfully, I don't...but if Ven wants to hone his methods on a dead line, going rote with a single line-item stat based on a useless tally of corroded data arbitrarily plucked from 1974...well...good luck with all that.
So...when you state "a ROAD FAVORITE laying 5 has always been a kiss of death for the road favorite", that really is, at best--a meaningless/useless statement. More often than not--unfortunately--it's misleading and harmful.
Since we are talking about a time series, it depends on when you begin. If you go back to 1974 and simply tally up figures to the present, then yes, you are correct. But who cares?
Because, if you do the same thing since 2006 you're flat-out wrong. [And yeah, in this case, the past 8 years are more relevant and significant than the past 40.]
But wait BernieVegas---there's hope! If you go back to 2009--you're right!
Blah, blah, blah...
We can pick out starting points to prove whatever point we want--and we can dress it up by calling it a "trend", (hence the term, Trend-Sucker").
Here's a chart of the performance of 5 point road favorites since 1985.
I'm telling you right now...if I had to make this play over the next several years, I am betting on a reversion and that 5 point road favorites will out-perform. Thankfully, I don't...but if Ven wants to hone his methods on a dead line, going rote with a single line-item stat based on a useless tally of corroded data arbitrarily plucked from 1974...well...good luck with all that.
