I took a 7-point middle this week and feel it was the wrong bet. I had Phx/GSW for the over 199 and took the under 206 for the same game after the line moved. Now I feel I lost my first bet by trying for the middle opportunity. The reason I feel that way is if a total increases by 7 points then the over is the best bet. The total for the game was 222 points.
That is the million $ question. If you have bet a side and the line moves, is there more value in middling it or just holding the best line? I don't know the answer but I always hold the side bet and don't middle it, unless it is crossing over key #s to the point I would bet the other side straight up any way.
I look at it differently. I stated I'd take a 4-point middle, in real time, I would, but won't get it.
Here's how to middle, takes balls ! Find a line like Dallas over 198 yesterday. that's the right side Take early stand for about 5 units, even though you want 1 unit, be confident, let line move 5 points, bet 3.5-4 units when it moves on under. You have good middle.
Original bet usually wins, but you can't risk it losing. Pay Pinnacle, win at other book. Good bet in theory, good middlle, pay Pinny.
Here's how to middle, takes balls ! Find a line like Dallas over 198 yesterday. that's the right side Take early stand for about 5 units, even though you want 1 unit, be confident, let line move 5 points, bet 3.5-4 units when it moves on under. You have good middle.
Original bet usually wins, but you can't risk it losing. Pay Pinnacle, win at other book. Good bet in theory, good middlle, pay Pinny.
