Question for Baseball Sharpies

[SportSavant]

If you were gonna play two baseball totals against each other that were a 1/2 point different what would the spread in vig have to be for you to give it a shot....

For example I recently Played one at:

Under 9.5 -115
Over 9.0 +109

Is this a profitable play in the long run...how much of a variation in the vig will you tolerate for a 1/2 run?

 

[jwunderdog]

WOuld never consider myself sharp when it comes to baseball. But all baseball games have a 10% chance of hitting 9. When you have a total between 8.5 and 9.5 it should increase your odds even more, so I would say a profitable side.

 

[jwunderdog]

I should say just under 10% of all games hit 9.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

with a half a run difference their is no way ever to win money.
if the the plus is less than the -.

mathmatically impossiable.

best of luck.

 

[TomorrowsNewspaper+]

I don't think it is a bad play. But I would only do it on 7 or 9 and only with reduced juice like the example you show above. Why not risk $3.00 to win $100?

 

[jwunderdog]

Truelyhandicapping, he is not asking if this is a scalp. He is asking based on past stats, what is the probability of 9 hitting verses what he would pay in vig. You have almost a 10% chance of 9 hitting and you are risking less then 6% hence overtime you have a 4% positive spread. I agree with Tomorrow you will have a hard time finding value on anything other then 7 and 9s because other #s don't hit at a very high %. GL

 

[jwunderdog]

To Sports Savant: As a rule of thumb 1/2 run is worth 30 cents off and on an odd number and 22 cents off and on an even number. Since in your question the difference is 24 cents it is definitely profitable.

Raiders wanted you to have this so I copied it for you. GL