*********************Question For All Members**************

[G-Man!]

Im looking to know what one or two STATS/FACTORS do you find the most important when capping a Football game?
I know some would say many, but at some point, one or two are actually at the top of your list.
Please keep it short - and if you want, PLEASE give a brief explanation of why they are important .

ALL REPLIES ARE WELCOME.

 

[MikRetSam]

Line movement, early and late especially.

 

[Allstar199]

public money % vs public ticket %

 

[nsight]

1. Team match up
2. Situation
3. Market reaction/ perception

 

[jonchan312]

1. Team matchup

 

[G-Man!]

1. Team match up
2. Situation
3. Market reaction/ perception

What about team matchup is important? What decides a side for you?

Thanks

 

[G-Man!]

1. Team matchup

What about team matchup is important? What decides a side for you?

Thanks

 

[Willie99]

Intuition, perception and trying to play the line

Now if we knew who was going to win the turnover battle, that would be the sweet spot

 

[G-Man!]

Intuition, perception and trying to play the line

Now if we knew who was going to win the turnover battle, that would be the sweet spot

In what way do you play the line?
Thanks

 

[FORGETABOUTIT]

1. Team matchup

I thought you just guessed on your picks? Kinda disappointed to hear that you take the match ups into account.

 

[G-Man!]

I thought you just guessed on your picks? Kinda disappointed to hear that you take the match ups into account.

Please. No sarcasim.

This is an educational thread.
Thanks

 

[Haystacks]

Those that take it away vs those who turn it over.

 

[CrazyK]

Good question

 

[chrishansen]

O-Line vs D-Line
D-Line vs O-Line

Predicting what coaches will want to do vs what opposing coaches can do about it (Strength vs Weakness X’s & O’s)

 

[skins85]

point differential, time of possession, turnovers

 

[razorbackpicks]

As mentioned above. I really like O line domination and run games. They can usually close out games when ahead. Also D line strengths really play a factor in to my decisions.

You get a pass rush on a team that is 50/50 run pass and leans to passing more and have a good O line, they cover a lot of spreads. You get a soft team without good lines and they can win some games but you watch, they won't cover as much.

Also add some coaches like to keep the foot down instead of backing off. Take Titans coach for example.

Also another factor is third down conversions on both sides of the ball

 

[G-Man!]

public money % vs public ticket %

Is there a real consistent win-rate ATS when the games that are heavily bet on at 60% or more?

Examples. (Only against the spread) Last week.
Last week 61% were on Houston, but Chicago -1. won 36-7.
Last week 63% on Tennessee -7.5 and they won 31-10 over Jacksonville
Last week 62% on Carolina -4 but Denver won SU 32-27
Last week 63% on Saints -7.5 but Eagles won SU 27-24
last week 61% ob Green bay -9 But Detroit covered 24-31.

4 of 5 bet on in masses of 60% or more, failed @ an 80% clip Against The Spread.
Only Tennessee (63%) won and covered.

Im not sure of public ticket results. Is the Public Tickets always similar to Public Money?

 

[Kaveman]

It's never just one or two things.
It's a combination of everything.

 

[jonchan312]

What about team matchup is important? What decides a side for you?

Thanks

That's a very big question. It would be an oversimplification to distill it down to a simple answer, but I will try.
RE Team matchup. I do something akin to a SWOT analysis -- looking at each team's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. I look for edges there, especially for "easy" props (props-betting being something I was once brainwashed into looking down upon - Hey! You're never too old to learn!).

Short answer: I pay special attention to third down conversion rates for offense and defense and yards per play

 

[bookiereport]

Is there a real consistent win-rate ATS when the games that are heavily bet on at 60% or more?

Examples. (Only against the spread) Last week.
Last week 61% were on Houston, but Chicago -1. won 36-7.
Last week 63% on Tennessee -7.5 and they won 31-10 over Jacksonville
Last week 62% on Carolina -4 but Denver won SU 32-27
Last week 63% on Saints -7.5 but Eagles won SU 27-24
last week 61% ob Green bay -9 But Detroit covered 24-31.

4 of 5 bet on in masses of 60% or more, failed @ an 80% clip Against The Spread.
Only Tennessee (63%) won and covered.

Im not sure of public ticket results. Is the Public Tickets always similar to Public Money?

it was also worst week of year for bookies