Question about OVER UNDER Probablities..

blast00 · Feb 19, 2009

Generally when everyone is on a spread line, lets say boise state -1 over fresno state.... its a bad sign...

just curious if this same trend seems to hold true for over/unders and people fade the public??

I rarely bet over unders and I am trying to figure it out, because it appears that if you get good at it, its easier to play the betting spreads..

-blast

HacheMan · Feb 19, 2009

Pretty good question blast

I play a lot of totals, but to be honest, I don't pay much attention to the percentage of others being on that over or under and the results.

Maybe someone that does will chime in...

streak · Feb 19, 2009

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

Spread N Freq. Std. Err.
1 6,510 2.29% 0.19%
2 8,059 3.92% 0.22%
3 9,476 3.84% 0.20%
4 10,330 3.50% 0.18%
5 10,286 4.30% 0.20%
6 9,626 4.11% 0.20%
7 8,679 4.09% 0.21%
8 7,563 4.17% 0.23%
9 6,273 4.69% 0.27%
10 5,119 4.12% 0.28%
11 4,098 4.05% 0.31%
12 3,163 3.48% 0.33%
13 2,397 3.84% 0.39%
14 1,811 3.37% 0.42%
15 1,277 3.13% 0.49%
16 850 5.18% 0.76%
17 509 3.14% 0.77%
18 286 3.15% 1.03%
19 162 3.09% 1.36%
Methodology:

* All NBA final scores and closing point spreads (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990/1 season through November 2th of the 2008/9 season were analyzed (21,847 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
* The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
* This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

streak · Feb 19, 2009

Estimated NBA Over/Under Push Frequencies
For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

Total N Freq.
170 548 2.37%
171 713 3.51%
172 869 2.53%
173 1,031 2.52%
174 1,202 2.25%
175 1,375 2.69%
176 1,563 2.18%
177 1,760 2.44%
178 1,960 2.40%
179 2,187 2.70%
180 2,348 2.21%
181 2,586 2.09%
182 2,819 3.23%
183 3,086 2.79%
184 3,379 2.78%
185 3,626 2.48%
186 3,842 2.19%
187 4,005 2.22%
188 4,123 2.38%
189 4,322 2.31%
190 4,432 1.96%
191 4,570 2.23%
192 4,600 2.33%
193 4,589 2.31%
194 4,580 2.16%
195 4,519 2.43%
196 4,432 2.62%
197 4,293 2.63%
198 4,152 1.93%
199 4,127 2.42%
200 4,029 2.08%
201 3,917 1.79%
202 3,814 2.60%
203 3,715 2.45%
204 3,636 2.50%
205 3,514 2.19%
206 3,372 2.28%
207 3,168 2.37%
208 2,943 2.14%
209 2,723 2.13%
210 2,531 2.69%
211 2,292 2.14%
212 2,087 2.30%
213 1,926 2.02%
214 1,741 1.78%
215 1,598 2.00%
216 1,447 1.80%
217 1,261 2.14%
218 1,134 2.03%
219 986 1.52%
220 884 2.60%
221 779 2.05%
222 685 1.46%
223 598 2.34%
224 522 3.07%
Methodology:

* All NBA regular season final scores and closing over/unders (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990/1 season through November 17th of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (18,368 games in total) for various total point scores.
* The push frequency for a given over/under was determined by the percentage of games with an over/under within 4 points of the over/under in question ending with a total point score equal to that over/under. For example, the push frequency of an over/under of 200 was determined from all games with a closing over/unders between 196 and 204.
* This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

streak · Feb 19, 2009

MOV Freq.
1 4.214%
2 6.131%
3 5.820%
4 5.788%
5 6.327%
6 6.212%
7 6.245%
8 6.043%
9 5.869%
10 5.031%
11 4.797%
12 4.236%
13 3.800%
14 3.267%
15 2.995%
16 2.700%
17 2.428%
18 2.161%
19 1.960%
20 1.846%
21 1.677%
22 1.421%
23 1.024%
24 1.187%
25 0.985%
26 1.007%
27 0.730%
28 0.626%
29 0.550%
30 0.479%
31 0.343%
32 0.414%
33 0.338%
34 0.207%
35 0.180%
36 0.136%
37 0.109%
38 0.103%
39 0.131%
40 0.098%
41 0.060%
42 0.049%
43 0.027%
44 0.049%
45 0.044%
46 0.038%
47 0.027%
48 0.022%
49 0.011%
50 0.005%
51 0.005%
52 0.011%
53 0.005%
56 0.011%
58 0.005%
62 0.005%
65 0.005%
68 0.005%

Marmix22 · Feb 19, 2009

Hell yeauh it makes a difference!! look at it like this MOST GAMES Majority of games Vegas will at least win on the side or the total one or the other DAYUM near always soo yes take percentages into account but its not just percentages its line movement etc etc