YTD
20-11-0
+$3,079
I can remember the day that I actually began investing my $$ into the NFL very clearly 19 years ago. I use to watch a group of guys try and beat the game week in and week out. Sometimes they won and sometimes they lost ( mostly , they lost) regardless how much they lost , it seemed every time that they won , it marked a new beginning for them..............at least in their own little minds. They would be all happy and the testosterone would begin to flow. Truly a sad situation knowing how much they had lost the week before. I know, I saw, I witnessed, I profited off these types of guys for many years without ever making a play on my own. That is how I learned to do this thing that I am attempting to do. Am I addicted to it? No doubt and loving every minute of it.
The ten most common point spreads in the NFL in order are:
(3) 14.3%
(7) 7.2 %
(4) 6.8%
(6) 6.3%
(1) 5.1%
(14) 5.3%
(10) 5.2%
(2) 3.7%
(11) 3.6%
(17) 3.6%
I want to put up a few other numbers up here because they are numbers that we are forced to play quite often.
(5) 3%
(8) 1.9%
(9) 1.8%
Now it is safe to say that I personally am not going to make a stand of 17 or 20 points in either direction on any given Sunday. It is also safe to say that I will not make a stand of more than 10 points in either direction unless it is a dog very often.
Now if you look at what is left after leaving those spreads out, what you will find is:
(3) 14.3%
(7) 7.2 %
(4) 6.8%
(6) 6.3%
(1) 5.1%
(10) 5.2%
(2) 3.7%
(5) Is the same as (6).and
(8) & (9) are the same as (10)…..as far as I am concerned.
That leaves seven spreads to try and exploit.
If (3) is the actual spread 14.3 % or 1 out of 7 that hits then why in the world would anyone want to give up 3 ½ ?
And if (7) is the actual spread 7.2% or 1 out every 14 then why would I want to lay a 7 ½?
A seven is one score. Seven and a half is 2 scores. Basically when you give a hook on the seven, you are giving up 9’ also. In order to beat that 7’ you are most likely going to have to cover all the way up to 10.
So which is more valuable? The hook on the 3 or the 7.
They are both very bad but, 3’ is worse unless you are on the dog. The hook on the 3 decreases your odds of covering or pushing by 76.9% or a 32.2 % chance of just the numbers that I play alone. That is a fact .
It is really simple math and if you take that philosophy to the grave I guarantee you that you will come out ahead in the long run. Buy the hooks off of three whenever you can period. It will never cost you more than it is worth.
You can listen to the mathematical fact that you must win 53% of all wagers based on normal juice of -110 just to break even. I cannot argue that. But please tell me how you can factor that into how you play the point spread?
In order to make $$, you must win and you must know how to spread the investment around each week. If you are not winning then you have no hope to begin with. I would think that the new investors among us should probably bet flat and keep the possible damages to a minimum. The art of spreading the money around is something that comes with time.
The bottom line is that you must be able to consistently pick the winner of the spread and if you consistently lay the hook on the 3’s, you are going to consistently get stung in the process. Sometimes you do not have a choice and shopping around does help.
This season alone the final scores have already landed on the 7 and the 3 on 27% of the games.
Week #5 and its full of jewels.......
Arizona Cardinals -2’ (-120) $500
Cincinnati Bengals -2' (-120) $500
New England Patriots -8' $500
Atlanta over 47' (-114) $300
**A few years ago ( 4 to be exact since I did truly exploit the NFL) I would rate my plays as precious stones. I could not help but remember what it took to be a Diamond back then.
I rate both Arizona and Cincinnati as Diamonds this week. Diamonds were few and far between back in the good old days.
New England is a blood red Ruby this week. I love Rubies.**
Thank You for reading,
Queen of Hearts
20-11-0
+$3,079
I can remember the day that I actually began investing my $$ into the NFL very clearly 19 years ago. I use to watch a group of guys try and beat the game week in and week out. Sometimes they won and sometimes they lost ( mostly , they lost) regardless how much they lost , it seemed every time that they won , it marked a new beginning for them..............at least in their own little minds. They would be all happy and the testosterone would begin to flow. Truly a sad situation knowing how much they had lost the week before. I know, I saw, I witnessed, I profited off these types of guys for many years without ever making a play on my own. That is how I learned to do this thing that I am attempting to do. Am I addicted to it? No doubt and loving every minute of it.
The ten most common point spreads in the NFL in order are:
(3) 14.3%
(7) 7.2 %
(4) 6.8%
(6) 6.3%
(1) 5.1%
(14) 5.3%
(10) 5.2%
(2) 3.7%
(11) 3.6%
(17) 3.6%
I want to put up a few other numbers up here because they are numbers that we are forced to play quite often.
(5) 3%
(8) 1.9%
(9) 1.8%
Now it is safe to say that I personally am not going to make a stand of 17 or 20 points in either direction on any given Sunday. It is also safe to say that I will not make a stand of more than 10 points in either direction unless it is a dog very often.
Now if you look at what is left after leaving those spreads out, what you will find is:
(3) 14.3%
(7) 7.2 %
(4) 6.8%
(6) 6.3%
(1) 5.1%
(10) 5.2%
(2) 3.7%
(5) Is the same as (6).and
(8) & (9) are the same as (10)…..as far as I am concerned.
That leaves seven spreads to try and exploit.
If (3) is the actual spread 14.3 % or 1 out of 7 that hits then why in the world would anyone want to give up 3 ½ ?
And if (7) is the actual spread 7.2% or 1 out every 14 then why would I want to lay a 7 ½?
A seven is one score. Seven and a half is 2 scores. Basically when you give a hook on the seven, you are giving up 9’ also. In order to beat that 7’ you are most likely going to have to cover all the way up to 10.
So which is more valuable? The hook on the 3 or the 7.
They are both very bad but, 3’ is worse unless you are on the dog. The hook on the 3 decreases your odds of covering or pushing by 76.9% or a 32.2 % chance of just the numbers that I play alone. That is a fact .
It is really simple math and if you take that philosophy to the grave I guarantee you that you will come out ahead in the long run. Buy the hooks off of three whenever you can period. It will never cost you more than it is worth.
You can listen to the mathematical fact that you must win 53% of all wagers based on normal juice of -110 just to break even. I cannot argue that. But please tell me how you can factor that into how you play the point spread?
In order to make $$, you must win and you must know how to spread the investment around each week. If you are not winning then you have no hope to begin with. I would think that the new investors among us should probably bet flat and keep the possible damages to a minimum. The art of spreading the money around is something that comes with time.
The bottom line is that you must be able to consistently pick the winner of the spread and if you consistently lay the hook on the 3’s, you are going to consistently get stung in the process. Sometimes you do not have a choice and shopping around does help.
This season alone the final scores have already landed on the 7 and the 3 on 27% of the games.
Week #5 and its full of jewels.......
Arizona Cardinals -2’ (-120) $500
Cincinnati Bengals -2' (-120) $500
New England Patriots -8' $500
Atlanta over 47' (-114) $300
**A few years ago ( 4 to be exact since I did truly exploit the NFL) I would rate my plays as precious stones. I could not help but remember what it took to be a Diamond back then.
I rate both Arizona and Cincinnati as Diamonds this week. Diamonds were few and far between back in the good old days.
New England is a blood red Ruby this week. I love Rubies.**
Thank You for reading,
Queen of Hearts
.
