At the beginning of the season I said I was going to bet on teams that I thought had a distinct QB advantage over their opponent. Through the first three weeks, it paid off (although I realize that that's also the easiest time of the season). I got away from that during conference play, but I'm going to try it again for the bowls.
So where are the QB mismatches?
First play I like is Central Michigan over FAU. FAU was supposed to be good this year, Rusty Smith was supposed to be an NFL prospect, but in the 3-4 FAU games I watched this year, he looked awful. LeFevour should be much healthier (and if not, Bruner is very capable). CMU's defense is terrible, but one or two 2nd half stands and this should be a 14-17 point CMU win.
Next play I like is Florida State over Wisconsin. Ponder is not a great QB. Not at all. He locks in on receivers, and can't really throw the ball downfield at all. But he's a very effective, efficient runner, and he's very good at getting the ball into his playmakers' hands within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Wisconsin doesn't rely on their QB, and for good reason. They've got a good running game, but without Beckum, I expect FSU to completely key on that running game. Looking for a 10-14 point FSU win here.
Third play I like is NCST. I don't think Russell Wilson is necessarily a better QB than Teel, but he's just as good. When healthy, he's a very impressive QB - probably the best in the ACC. I don't know that NCST will be able to win this game as I can see their defense getting tired by the 4th quarter, but I'd be surprised if NCST lost by more than a TD. Will probably buy the half-point to +7.5, but I expect a 3-pt game either way.
Fourth play is Georgia Tech. LSU doesn't have a quarterback, end of story.
Fifth play is Georgia. Stafford is a spaz sometimes, but he's way better than Hoyer. And while Michigan State will just pound the ball with Ringer, I don't see MSU stopping UGA's offense. Thinking this will be a high-scoring game, with UGA winning by 14.
Last play is Texas. Pryor is a heck of an athlete, but he's not a polished QB. Colt McCoy had an amazing year, and with a chance at a backdoor split championship, I don't expect him or Texas to be any less motivated than they were all year. OSU will rely on Beanie, but he's got glass ankles and could very well be a non-factor by the 4th quarter if he comes up lame at some point. Ohio State will put up more of a fight than Arkansas did last year vs. Mizzou, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a similiar type game. Thinking 17-21 point Texas win.
So the plays are:
CMU -6.5/-7
FSU -4.5/-5
NCST +7/+7.5
GT -4
UGA -7
Texas -9.5
Houston could very well be a play, but AF is so unique that I'm scared to go against the running dog. Totally different offensive attacks.
I realize that three of my teams are from the ACC (not exactly a powerhouse conference for QB play this year), five of my plays are favorites, and five are southern teams, but that's just how it works out and how I read the games.
There's a good chance I'll be playing every bowl game, but I think these will be my biggest plays. GL everybody; hope this helps...
So where are the QB mismatches?
First play I like is Central Michigan over FAU. FAU was supposed to be good this year, Rusty Smith was supposed to be an NFL prospect, but in the 3-4 FAU games I watched this year, he looked awful. LeFevour should be much healthier (and if not, Bruner is very capable). CMU's defense is terrible, but one or two 2nd half stands and this should be a 14-17 point CMU win.
Next play I like is Florida State over Wisconsin. Ponder is not a great QB. Not at all. He locks in on receivers, and can't really throw the ball downfield at all. But he's a very effective, efficient runner, and he's very good at getting the ball into his playmakers' hands within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Wisconsin doesn't rely on their QB, and for good reason. They've got a good running game, but without Beckum, I expect FSU to completely key on that running game. Looking for a 10-14 point FSU win here.
Third play I like is NCST. I don't think Russell Wilson is necessarily a better QB than Teel, but he's just as good. When healthy, he's a very impressive QB - probably the best in the ACC. I don't know that NCST will be able to win this game as I can see their defense getting tired by the 4th quarter, but I'd be surprised if NCST lost by more than a TD. Will probably buy the half-point to +7.5, but I expect a 3-pt game either way.
Fourth play is Georgia Tech. LSU doesn't have a quarterback, end of story.
Fifth play is Georgia. Stafford is a spaz sometimes, but he's way better than Hoyer. And while Michigan State will just pound the ball with Ringer, I don't see MSU stopping UGA's offense. Thinking this will be a high-scoring game, with UGA winning by 14.
Last play is Texas. Pryor is a heck of an athlete, but he's not a polished QB. Colt McCoy had an amazing year, and with a chance at a backdoor split championship, I don't expect him or Texas to be any less motivated than they were all year. OSU will rely on Beanie, but he's got glass ankles and could very well be a non-factor by the 4th quarter if he comes up lame at some point. Ohio State will put up more of a fight than Arkansas did last year vs. Mizzou, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a similiar type game. Thinking 17-21 point Texas win.
So the plays are:
CMU -6.5/-7
FSU -4.5/-5
NCST +7/+7.5
GT -4
UGA -7
Texas -9.5
Houston could very well be a play, but AF is so unique that I'm scared to go against the running dog. Totally different offensive attacks.
I realize that three of my teams are from the ACC (not exactly a powerhouse conference for QB play this year), five of my plays are favorites, and five are southern teams, but that's just how it works out and how I read the games.
There's a good chance I'll be playing every bowl game, but I think these will be my biggest plays. GL everybody; hope this helps...
