I took Leinart +0.5 TD passes -140 over J. White. (Pinnacle)
1) Due to the defenses both QB's will likely be below their averages for TD passes, so the chance of the +0.5 coming into to play is elevated.
2) Most outs have Leinart favored by 8-10 total passing yards and more importantly 2-3 completions over White, so I don't see why he should be getting a half a TD pass from White.
3) I believe Stoops will try to win with Peterson + defense first, White not being the first option.
4) Until proven wrong I'll continue to believe White's TD passing stats are inflated a bit by big games against bad teams, whereas Leinart's has been much better against tough defenses.
Against Texas (2004), LSU (Sugar Bowl), Kansas State (2003 Big-12 championship), Nebraska (2002, 1 quarter), Texas (2002, 3 quarters) White has combined for 7 interceptions and NO TD passes. These games are the only instances I could find of White facing top-20 defenses.
Meanwhile Leinart versus top-20 defenses has 12 passing TD's, 1 receiving TD, and only one interception. Cal (2004), Va. Tech (2004), Michigan (Rose Bowl), Washington State (2003), and Auburn (2003).
I also took total points Under 24.5 +1670. I believe a championship game with 2 great defenses has a better than 5.6% chance of having the total land below 24.5. For instance Oklahoma 13 FSU 2 and Penn State 14 Miami 10.
I have a small play on USC +1.5, but still took Peterson to win MVP at +350 because I think Oklahoma has at least a 40% chance to win and if they do it will be thanks to Peterson and defense, not to White for reasons already given.
Otherwise I have U53, the 1st half U27, and OU under 27 points.
Good luck to all.
1) Due to the defenses both QB's will likely be below their averages for TD passes, so the chance of the +0.5 coming into to play is elevated.
2) Most outs have Leinart favored by 8-10 total passing yards and more importantly 2-3 completions over White, so I don't see why he should be getting a half a TD pass from White.
3) I believe Stoops will try to win with Peterson + defense first, White not being the first option.
4) Until proven wrong I'll continue to believe White's TD passing stats are inflated a bit by big games against bad teams, whereas Leinart's has been much better against tough defenses.
Against Texas (2004), LSU (Sugar Bowl), Kansas State (2003 Big-12 championship), Nebraska (2002, 1 quarter), Texas (2002, 3 quarters) White has combined for 7 interceptions and NO TD passes. These games are the only instances I could find of White facing top-20 defenses.
Meanwhile Leinart versus top-20 defenses has 12 passing TD's, 1 receiving TD, and only one interception. Cal (2004), Va. Tech (2004), Michigan (Rose Bowl), Washington State (2003), and Auburn (2003).
I also took total points Under 24.5 +1670. I believe a championship game with 2 great defenses has a better than 5.6% chance of having the total land below 24.5. For instance Oklahoma 13 FSU 2 and Penn State 14 Miami 10.
I have a small play on USC +1.5, but still took Peterson to win MVP at +350 because I think Oklahoma has at least a 40% chance to win and if they do it will be thanks to Peterson and defense, not to White for reasons already given.
Otherwise I have U53, the 1st half U27, and OU under 27 points.
Good luck to all.
Hey Berlino...
They say "Great minds think alike"....My thought process was exactly the same with regard to the National Championship Game and how it will play out.
I see a game remarkably similar to the VT/Aub Sugar Bowl with regard to both teams in this game having not played since 12/4 ( just like VT/Aub ) and thus both offenses will probably have trouble adjusting to game speed in the first half, defense is a constant and the time off should help heal the bumps and bruises and not hurt at all.
I also feel that USC is the correct side here and see them being able to throw against the sooners, however, I think the sooners will be able to run with some success against the Trojans...in the end I would much rather back the team that I feel can throw the ball with success because this kind of team has the ability to come back if down on the score board, I'm not so sure the sooners will have that ability against the Trojans.
Thus I played:
USC +1
UNDER 1st half
UNDER for the game
take care and good luck to us!!
Deb
They say "Great minds think alike"....My thought process was exactly the same with regard to the National Championship Game and how it will play out.
I see a game remarkably similar to the VT/Aub Sugar Bowl with regard to both teams in this game having not played since 12/4 ( just like VT/Aub ) and thus both offenses will probably have trouble adjusting to game speed in the first half, defense is a constant and the time off should help heal the bumps and bruises and not hurt at all.
I also feel that USC is the correct side here and see them being able to throw against the sooners, however, I think the sooners will be able to run with some success against the Trojans...in the end I would much rather back the team that I feel can throw the ball with success because this kind of team has the ability to come back if down on the score board, I'm not so sure the sooners will have that ability against the Trojans.
Thus I played:
USC +1
UNDER 1st half
UNDER for the game
take care and good luck to us!!
Deb
Just curious as to why you think USC can throw better than OU.
I see some very young inexperienced recievers for USC. It is their first really big game. Just seen them drop numerous passes all year long. I think the OU receivers might be a little better than the USC receivers. And USC will look to stop the run more than OU so it could open passing lanes for OU.
JMO
I see some very young inexperienced recievers for USC. It is their first really big game. Just seen them drop numerous passes all year long. I think the OU receivers might be a little better than the USC receivers. And USC will look to stop the run more than OU so it could open passing lanes for OU.
JMO
what about this props..
its in decimal odds.
Player To Have More Passing Yards
2.00 +8.5 J White (Okl) - Most Passing Yards - M Leinhart (U S C) -8.5 1.83
Player To Score More Touchdowns
2.30 -0.5 A Peterson (Okl) - Score More Touchdowns - R Bush (U S C) +0.5 1.66
Total Points Scored By Oklahoma
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Oklahoma Total Points 26 1.90 1.90
Total Points Scored By U S C
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Points By U S C 26 1.90 1.90
Total Passing Yards By J White ( Okl )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Passing Yards By J White ( Okl ) 226.5 1.90 1.90
Player Must Start For Action
Total Completions By J White ( Okl )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Completions By J White ( Okl ) 18.5 2.25 1.68
Player Must Start For Action
Total Passing Yards By M Leinhart ( U S C )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Passing Yards By M Leinhart ( U S C ) 236.5 1.90 1.90
Player Must Start For Action
Total Completions By M Leinhart ( U S C )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Completions By M Leinhart ( U S C ) 21.5 2.15 1.74
Player Must Start For Action
Total Rushing Yards By A Peterson ( Okl )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Rushing Yards By A Peterson ( Okl ) 118.5 2.05 1.80
Player Must Start For Action
Total Rushing Yards By R Bush ( U S C )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Rushing Yards By R Bush ( U S C ) 98.5 1.90 1.90
Team To Score First
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.90 Oklahoma - Team To Score 1st - U S C 1.90
Team To Score Last
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.90 Oklahoma - Team To Score Last - U S C 1.90
Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times?
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.58 Yes - Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times? - No 2.50
Point After Touchdown Does Not Count
Player To Throw More Touchdown Passes
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.80 J White (Okl) - Most Touchdown Passes - M Leinhart (U S C) 2.05
Both Players Must Start For Action
Will A Peterson ( Okl ) Score A Touchdown?
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.58 Yes - A Peterson (Okl) To Score A Touchdown - No 2.50
Player Must Start For Action
Will R Bush ( U S C ) Score A Touchdown?
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.57 Yes - R Bush (U S C) To Score A Touchdown - No 2.55
from willhill.com
its in decimal odds.
Player To Have More Passing Yards
2.00 +8.5 J White (Okl) - Most Passing Yards - M Leinhart (U S C) -8.5 1.83
Player To Score More Touchdowns
2.30 -0.5 A Peterson (Okl) - Score More Touchdowns - R Bush (U S C) +0.5 1.66
Total Points Scored By Oklahoma
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Oklahoma Total Points 26 1.90 1.90
Total Points Scored By U S C
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Points By U S C 26 1.90 1.90
Total Passing Yards By J White ( Okl )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Passing Yards By J White ( Okl ) 226.5 1.90 1.90
Player Must Start For Action
Total Completions By J White ( Okl )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Completions By J White ( Okl ) 18.5 2.25 1.68
Player Must Start For Action
Total Passing Yards By M Leinhart ( U S C )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Passing Yards By M Leinhart ( U S C ) 236.5 1.90 1.90
Player Must Start For Action
Total Completions By M Leinhart ( U S C )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Completions By M Leinhart ( U S C ) 21.5 2.15 1.74
Player Must Start For Action
Total Rushing Yards By A Peterson ( Okl )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Rushing Yards By A Peterson ( Okl ) 118.5 2.05 1.80
Player Must Start For Action
Total Rushing Yards By R Bush ( U S C )
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Match Total Under Over
Total Rushing Yards By R Bush ( U S C ) 98.5 1.90 1.90
Team To Score First
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.90 Oklahoma - Team To Score 1st - U S C 1.90
Team To Score Last
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.90 Oklahoma - Team To Score Last - U S C 1.90
Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times?
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.58 Yes - Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times? - No 2.50
Point After Touchdown Does Not Count
Player To Throw More Touchdown Passes
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.80 J White (Okl) - Most Touchdown Passes - M Leinhart (U S C) 2.05
Both Players Must Start For Action
Will A Peterson ( Okl ) Score A Touchdown?
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.58 Yes - A Peterson (Okl) To Score A Touchdown - No 2.50
Player Must Start For Action
Will R Bush ( U S C ) Score A Touchdown?
Bet Until : 01:05 05/01/2005
Win Match Win
1.57 Yes - R Bush (U S C) To Score A Touchdown - No 2.55
from willhill.com
Hello Line Breaker...
Both the Trojans and the sooners have struggled at times this season and coincidently the struggles of both teams have occurred when playing away from home.
The sooners struggled in defeating Texas A&M 42-35, Okla St 38-35, and Kansas St 31-21, these three teams combined to go 18-17 overall on the year but the sooners defense allowed an average of 30.3 points scored to these teams and the sooners posted a mark of 0-3 ATS in these games.
The Trojans struggled in defeating Stanford 31-28, Oregon St 28-20, and UCLA 29-24 to close out their regular season, these teams combined to go 17-18 overall on the year, the USC defense allowed these teams to score an average of 24 points against them and also posted a mark of 0-3 ATS in these games.
However, the Trojans come from the PAC-10 and as such face a fairly decent passing attack each and every week which of course tends to inflate their defensive rushing stats, the sooners of course come from the Big 12 which as a conference tends to run the ball more which of course will tend to inflate the sooners team passing defense numbers.
Hence, its only logical to say that the Trojan DB's should be better prepared to stop the sooners passing attack that visa versa, however, this also means that the sooners should be better prepared to stop the Trojan rushing attack...thus the statement that I originally made.
Did you know that the sooners have only lost 11 games since HC Bob Stoops took over the fledging sooner program?...Funny thing is that 10 of those 11 losses happened when the sooners ventured away from Norman.
take care and Happy New Year!
Deb
Line Breaker said:
As far as Leinart throwing for more yards and completions I haven't broken it down at all. I'm just going by the online props which all have Leinart a slight favorite in those categories.
As for TD's Leinart has gotten done against tough D's (for example this season against Va. Tech -3 TD passes whereas White hasn't shown anything against a top defense like USC's.
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