Profile of a Champion

NoCoke · Dec 7, 2015

Couple of trends I thought were interesting...

Recruiting rankings. Lowest 4 year class average since 2008 was Auburn in 2010 at 12.5. Average class ranking for the past 7 champions is a little over 5.5. 2015 playoff teams: Bama (1.25), Clemson (11.25), OU (13.75), and MSU (31.25).

Mentioned in another thread that no champion since at least 2004 had a negative turnover margin.. All are positive with the exception of Clemson.

Those not familiar with Dave Bartoo with CFBmatrix.com should check him out. He keeps track of scoring efficiency each week. Every champion in the last 10 years was top 3 in either offensive or defensive scoring efficiency and all were top 10 in total efficiency. Here are the 4 playoff teams prior to this past weekend:

OU: 4 offense, 17 defense, 3 total
Bama: 31, 3, 9
Clemson: 29, 23, 21
MSU: 35, 40, 36.

Prior year: OSU (1,23,4); Oregon (2,13,2); FSU (6,22,6); Bama (8,1,1)

He also tracks points per play. Last 10 champs all had a PPP of greater than .4. All besides 2009 Bama were greater than .44. If I calculated this correctly, I think we're looking at OU (.59), Clemson (.48), Bama (.47), MSU (.45).

One last metric.. S&P. They did change the formula in 2014, but all besides 2012 Bama (3) had the #1 rated offense. Worst rated defense was Auburn in 2010 at 17. Them and Ohio State last year were the only defenses not in the top 10. Through last weekend:

OU: 3 offense, 12 defense
Bama: 27, 1
Clemson: 10, 6
MSU: 26,13

Comments welcomed.. OU may be worth a look at +220.

GoSooners · Dec 7, 2015

No Coke said:
Recruiting rankings. Lowest 4 year class average since 2008 was Auburn in 2010 at 12.5. Average class ranking for the past 7 champions is a little over 5.5. 2015 playoff teams: Bama (1.25), Clemson (11.25), OU (13.75), and MSU (31.25).

The only two teams to win the NC in the BCS era including the first year of playoff and not be in the top 10 in recruiting rankings for the year of their NC dating back to the 2 years prior were OU in 2000 and Auburn in 2008. But Auburn just missed the 10 by being ranked an average of 11th (by all of the major recruiting services combined) for the 3 year period leading up to the NC. The only team that qualifies this year is of course Bama. None of the rest of the 3 come close. Although I believe Clemson did finish #5 by Rivals in 2015 (no other top 10's by the other teams). And they are the second highest recruiting team in the final four. With OU 3rd and and MSU a distant 4th. I guess the biggest question we are left with is will this strong trend continue now that we have a playoff? Your guess is as good as mine...You may remember I brought this same subject up last year with the Oregon vs Ohio St NC game. http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1012369&highlight=can+oregon+win+the+national+chamionship

cloverleaf · Dec 8, 2015

My take............

I believe better athletes with better coaching wins championships.

Oklahoma will beat Clemson.
Alabama will beat Michigan State.

Alabama will beat Oklahoma by two touchdowns.

My take and welcome yours..................

Haystacks · Dec 8, 2015

cloverleaf said:
My take............

I believe better athletes with better coaching wins championships.

Oklahoma will beat Clemson.
Alabama will beat Michigan State.

Alabama will beat Oklahoma by two touchdowns.

My take and welcome yours..................

you're not exactly going out on a limb.i think the public feels the same, but Oklahoma never loses to Bama though, who can't cover

tmader7 · Dec 8, 2015

cloverleaf said:
My take............

I believe better athletes with better coaching wins championships.

Oklahoma will beat Clemson.
Alabama will beat Michigan State.

Alabama will beat Oklahoma by two touchdowns.

My take and welcome yours..................

Well, last time BAMA was a double digit favorite over the Sooners......uhm, let me think, what happened? LOL

~T~

rolltide · Dec 8, 2015

pretty cool breakdown of the recruits in these final 4 teams: https://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1834538

interesting that CA was the #3 points score for recruits on the OU football team...didn't know they crushed CA like that. obviously top 2 states for them were TX and OK

and when we go back to profile of a champion discussion i will post the one that i posted this summer: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2...e-engineering-a-champion-ohio-state-tcu-ucla/

1) elite recruiting = only Bama
2) first term coach = only Clemson
3) defensive line of doom = certainly Bama (projected to have Allen, Robinson, and Reed taken in first round 2016), not sure of others - chime in...
4) elite pass efficiency defense = Bama #4, Clemson #7, OU #12, MSU #69 (8 of last 10 champs ranked inside top 7 like CLEM and BAMA)
5) creative scoring (defensive and special teams TD) & creating turnovers = all very close in takeaways (msu 28, ou, 26, bama 24, clem 23) and defensive td are msu 5, bama 4, ou 3, clem 2 but not sure where to find special teams TD. I know Bama have 3 punt return TD this year (leads nation) and a punt block TD so that would be 4 for them and obviously MSU have the one notable punt block TD but no return TDs so I would assume Bama is #1 in this category with 8 creative TD.