Probability as it relates to college football totals

[Lawton1]

The subject of probability and how to use it, in projecting CFB totals, is something that I have seen seldom used. I don't know if you guys know anything about probability (chances of something happening) or how to create a probability chart. I have always been fascinated with both topics (totals) and (probability).

Let's use a simple probability chart today in college football and select a few of the highest rated totals on the board...

Houston Under 44.5 (64.75%)

Minnesota Over 44.5 (64.92%)

Army Over 48.5 (65.80%)


Those are the 3 highest rated totals today on my probability chart, for the day games...

Count them for one unit and I'll be back later to share a little more about the chart and to look at the later games..


Good luck guys

 

[StevieRay]

Good luck Falcon.

 

[sunshine11]

Good luck Falcon.

Yes your right see him in SP

 

[Lawton1]

Probability: the extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favorable cases to the whole number of cases possible.

 

[cd329]

So how are you coming up with the probability of what a total in game should be?

The subject of probability and how to use it, in projecting CFB totals, is something that I have seen seldom used. I don't know if you guys know anything about probability (chances of something happening) or how to create a probability chart. I have always been fascinated with both topics (totals) and (probability).

Let's use a simple probability chart today in college football and select a few of the highest rated totals on the board...

Houston Under 44.5 (64.75%)

Minnesota Over 44.5 (64.92%)

Army Over 48.5 (65.80%)


Those are the 3 highest rated totals today on my probability chart, for the day games...

Count them for one unit and I'll be back later to share a little more about the chart and to look at the later games..


Good luck guys

 

[StevieRay]

So how are you coming up with the probability of what a total in game should be?

The magic computer program that changes once it hits a losing run

 

[Lawton1]

Louisiana Monroe Under 54 (64.85%)

LA Tech Over 57 (67.90%)

I have not completed all the games... I am up to the 6pm CST starts and I have now listed 5 probable totals.... I also listed the percent chance that the outcome will occur.

I will be back later with any remaining plays....


Good luck guys

 

[sunshine11]

The magic computer program that changes once it hits a losing run

Haha so true.

 

[Lawton1]

Last 2 plays for Saturday


Washington Under 59 (64.10%)

TexasAM Over 49 (66.80%)


Alright guys, I listed 7 plays today with the percentages...

Good luck guys, if u want me to list the NFL, I'll try and get back around tomorrow...

 

[Lawton1]

Just trying to bring a different concept to the forum... I don't see the subject of probability being discussed.... I am not creating a number and comparing that to the books, I am using probability to set a percentage of an event happening, with a specific number...

Recap Saturdays card

Houston Under 44.5
Minnesota Over 44.5
Army Over 48.5
La Tech Over 57
ULM Under 54
Washington Under 59
TexasAM Over 49

The probability is high that these plays hit....

 

[Trickboytx]

I'm guess Lawton and several others have been falcon. No one ever responds back denying it. But I actually like totals and don't know why others do. I just use the info for my own reasoning. Stevie ray always points it out but I'm guessing Stevie never changes his name to start new threads either. But sunnie (as t refers to her) will start a new thread or 5 when things aren't going her way at the drop of a hat. Have no idea why she would want to comment on it. Just don't open the thread.

 

[StevieRay]

Falcon can go on decent runs. Just can't stand losing. Changes names and re starts over and over. State ur plays and live or die with it. Don't be a fraud , idiot, or scammer

 

[Lawton1]

I know who The Falcon is, I've posted some of his plays at times..

Is there a big deal... I simply wanted to show you how probability could be used in wagering on totals... I have a probability chart for football and basketball, thought I would share...

I use numbers, I do not handicap... I don't trust opinions or gut instincts... You can be your own worst enemy, don't let your eyes deceive you, when trying to pick winners..

Minn Over cashes easily (1-0) follow along for the remaining card..

 

[StevieRay]

Yes. SSI aka Falcon use to post Falcons play also

 

[Lawton1]

Stevie, can we please keep the topic to totals and probability...

I'm trying to share something, that has great potential with the forum.... Let's not start chasing ghosts, no pun intended..

You could be getting your first glimpse at something very good....

2-0, with 5 pending for Saturday....

 

[ctgiant]

Keep it going Lawton,appreciate the winners..

 

[Lawton1]

No problem, I'll list NFL totals for tomorrow, in this thread tonight.. I'm trying to bring something new, creative and profitable to the forum...

 

[pizza]

like it

 

[StevieRay]

GL. Sweep the board

 

[Lawton1]

3 down, four pending... Hopefully the night games go well..