Preseason homework...what do you look for?

[RacerX]

Me? I have several situations I look at...

1. Teams returning the bulk of their interior linemen. The cohesiveness of the OLine in particular is a factor that is HUGE in early season matchups.
2. Teams that have come off of lack luster years, but yet had BIG bowl wins. The win usually carries over the morale to the next year both on and off the field.
3. Teams learning a new system vs teams entrenched in an old system

Any others I should be looking for?

 

[ElIguana]

Racer, these are all good things to look at in trying to determine which teams will improve/decline from last season. If you're lucky, you can find some good lines for or against certain teams and bet on or against them accordingly.

But a word of caution, my friend: Don't put too much stock in ANY of it! There are tons of pre-season publications and sites with lots of information that looks good on paper or the screen, but in my experience it hasn't translated onto the field as I thought it would.

Perhaps others are better at evaluating teams before their first game, but I have created situations and talked myself into games based on reports and information that never materialized. The best advice I have is to play a lot of underdogs early in the season. The favorites may be giving points based on last year's success, and this is a whole new season with new game plans where everyone is fresh and not physically or mentally beaten up yet. GL

 

[omahamoneymaker]

I too like to look at the returning starters in the trenches. I also compare matchups based on returning starters. For example if Team A has 4 returning starters on the O-Line and Team B has only 1 returning starter on the D-Line this would be of huge significance to me.


Another big factor is a new QB behind an O-Line with few returning starters or little experience.

Matchups is the key. If one team has some new guys in the secondary but they are facing a team with a new QB that is in a running system it isn't that big of a deal.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

agree with El Iguana about playing dogs early...it usually takes teams a while to get things going...

 

[Coast2Coast]

All of that kind of fundamental information is valuable in handicapping matchups, and it's important to do all that. However, recognize that most of the info you learn about returning starters, matchups, etc. will be reflected in the lines starting right away with week 1. If you find some kind of edge through research, trust that the oddsmaker already knows it.

It used to be that you could find value in the first few weeks of a season as teams surprised a bit good and bad in the first few weeks and it took the lines a few weeks to adjust. However, in the last ten years with the proliferation of preseason mags, spring practice reports, chat boards and the reams of statistical info on the net, the "edges" are reflected in the lines in week 1.

Bottom line: your research may find you an edge that you think is a gem, but don't be so sure you won't be paying a higher price for it. That's why I keep my own power ratings from one year to another and every week during the season. I know what my ratings were on teams at the end of the season and I have a formula for adjusting them. I use them from week one on to find value and it probably won't surprise you that you usually have to pay a bit higher price for the "better team" or the team that fits certain angles. Matchups are critical, but I want to be sure I don't overpay. And too often in the last few years, the "returning starters" angles or the "returning linemen" or "returning skill positions" or "2nd year coaches" and several other angles all have seemed to come with higher prices. You will likely pay a premium to play those angles.

I agree with El Iguana and Pags about playing dogs, for the reasons they cited and one other. The line value more often that not is with the dogs...

 

[omahamoneymaker]

C2C,


You are not correct when you say that the linesmakers factor this information into the pointspread. They are just trying to put out a number that they feel will bring equal money in on both sides. This line may or may not be where the line should be. If you are a gambler it is your duty to find which lines are off based on the information you use to handicap.

 

[BigDaddyNole]

agree with OMM

if you really know a team and/or a conference pretty well, seems to me that you can find your best value early in the year ... at least that's always been my M.O.

 

[Coast2Coast]

I believe we are both correct OMM. How do oddsmakers set lines to attract even money on both sides? What do they consider in setting those lines? They factor in available information that they know bettors will consider. And my point is that those lines (set to attract even money on both sides) are based on public perception and available information and betting patterns...and are not necessarily reflective of the teams' intrinsic power ratings.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

good thoughts...good thread...

 

[badwater]

College football preseason process

I'll throw in my 2 cents on the process I use to prepare for the college football season.

First, in mid-June, I formulate my "early," non-official power ratings, giving the top (USC) a value of 100 and the 119th of the 119 Division I teams (Buffalo) a value of 45.

The difference of 55 points represents the projected margin-of-victory between the best and worst NCAA teams at a neutral site.

A few weeks ago, I started (I know this is old-fashioned) writing standard information (and random notes/spread tendencies/offseason injuries and suspensions/etc) on each of the 119 teams on a large index card.

On the top line, I list the team name; last year's record; number of returning starters (offense/defense/kickers); number of lettermen (returning/lost); and head coach's name with a note on each coach. The next two lines are dedicated to random tidbits about the team. Areas of strength/weakness/etc.

The majority of the card's space is dedicated to standard information on each team, starting with the offensive line and whether or not the starting center is returning. Not looking at one of my cards right now, but the OL section might look something like this.

OL (4/5) C - Yes; State U returns 4 of 5 OL; Combined 88 career starts; Two All-ACC returnees; Non-starter (soph RT) has 3 career starts and saw fair amount of PT last year. One of stronger lines in ACC. Smith ? in mid-June due to injury.

Then I go on and do the same analysis on the following: QB; RB/WR; Front 7; and DBs (How many CBs return also listed).

All of the above information is placed on the card's front side. The back side is reserved for injury information which will be dated (with projected return date) which occurs from now until the end of the season.

Among a few key areas I look it in early season handicapping are:

(1) Strength of the quarterback position _ If a QB has not played and does not possess lofty credentials, taking his first career snap at the Big House or Ohio Stadium could pose a problem. Inexperienced QBs, in general (if they have the talent), tend to start doing things more naturally after three-to-five games.

(2) Offensive line _ Any team returning less than 3 of 5 interior OL puts up a little bit of red flag early in the season as this unit essentially "operates as one" and must develop timing, trust, etc. Look at illegal procedure penalties in an inexperienced unit's first game or two. Obviously, if Michigan or Texas returns 2 of 5 OL, it could have much less impact than if Rutgers or Akron returns just 2 since these powers typically replace HS All-America types with more of the same.

(3) Front 7 defense _ Did the team lose a defensive playmaker (or two)? Sacks and tackles for loss are two areas I closely examine. To be successful defensively, a team needs penetration to disrupt the flow of the opposing team's offense. If a school lost a big-time LB; DE; or both of its DTs, I am going to look hard at the replacements and attempt to identify any potential dropoff. If a team loses that penetration _ even for a game or two as the newcomers gain experience _ the other team's offense could find the going a little easier.

If a capper works diligently and learns the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of each team, September is, by far, the easiest month to handicap in college football IMHO. Early on, if you're knowledgeable, you know MORE than the linemaker about these 119 teams. And I greatly respect the linemaker, but that's just the way it is. Plus you have the ability to pick and choose and don't have to bet all 40 games each weekend.

After three-to-four weeks, everybody's power ratings _ whether it be mine, Sagarin, Massey, Colley or whomever _ all reflect the same margins-of-victory and past performance and pretty much all LOOK THE SAME.

At that point, it becomes more difficult to pick winners based on pure "numbers." EX _ My numbers show Cincy should be a 7 1/2 point fav over Eastern Michigan on Sept. 1. Cris had Cincy up at minus-14 last night (before the line moved), so I played EM plus 14 based on the line difference.

Of course, your numbers have to be rock solid or the above example is possibly counterproductive.

Around the fifth week is when I switch my handicapping "gear" from fundamental to more of a situational and technical mode since, by then, the linemaker has essentially the same "numerical" information that I do.

Hope this helps somebody,
Paul

 

[redpimp]

I too like to look at the returning starters in the trenches. I also compare matchups based on returning starters. For example if Team A has 4 returning starters on the O-Line and Team B has only 1 returning starter on the D-Line this would be of huge significance to me.


Another big factor is a new QB behind an O-Line with few returning starters or little experience.

Matchups is the key. If one team has some new guys in the secondary but they are facing a team with a new QB that is in a running system it isn't that big of a deal.

great post man...I dont put too much stock into preseason so the little homework i do is around these few factors. Anything more i consider a waste of time...(outside of browsing the local papers for other tid bits)

 

[omahamoneymaker]

Some very good insight and posts. C2C, I didn't mean to say that you were wrong, I just have a different view of things than you do.


Last year I came out hot to begin with and then kind of coasted the rest of the year. Hopefully my preseason research will again be profitable.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

badwater,

excellent post...you'll help out a lot around here this year...