Prelimary Fade Plays

[rscl31]

These are final but looks like they qualify
Sportsinteraction is where i am taking the games b/c that's where u usually get best dog lines. The % are from wagerline. Original lines are from Canbet, lines as of now are from Pinnacle or Canbet


Home Teams

Illinois +4 77% of Mich St, line droped 1 1/2 points


W. Mich +9.5 70% of Bowling Green, line droped 1/2 of pint

Arizona St +2.5 65% on Oregon, line is at 2 at pinnacle)

East Carolina +8 64% on UNC, line dropped a point

Texas +7 65% on Oklahoma, line dropped 1/2 point

Arizona U +17 63% on UCLA no line movement

Texas El Paso +15 (62% on Lousiana Tech, drop in line)

Away Teams

New Mexico St +4 (67% on Midd Tenn but line dropped 1/2 point)

Arkansas St +25 (65% on Mississipp line droped 1/2 point)

Memphia +5 (63% on Miss St, line dropped a point)

Notre Dame +10 (62% on Pitt, line dropped 1 1/2 points)

 

[rscl31]

should read, 'these are not final'

 

[BigPete]

Thanks Bud, saved me an hour. My boss thanks you.

 

[rscl31]

not a problem, did these correspond with the ones you were looking at too?

 

[BigPete]

The ones that stick out are:

The Mich St. game dropped from -7 to -3.5
Oklahoma from -7 to -5.5
Virginia -3 to -2.5 to -3

All with heavy action on favorites.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

What's going on with that Ill./Mich. St. game? I noticed the total for that game went from 46.5 to 48.5 and then to 48.0.

???

 

[rscl31]

I"m new to the sportsinsights website, can someone explain it to me?

I don't understand under illinois how 100% of the betters are on illinois? What sportsbook give them info?

 

[rscl31]

Ok, i figured it out,

i'm assuming there's not many bets yet on the illinois game.

Here are the ones taht agree

line movement is what sportsinsight has as the movement

Notre Dame line is dropped (71% on Pitt)

W. Mich no line movement (75% on B. Green)

Memphis (line dropped) 100% on Miss St

Arkansas St (no movement) 100% on Mississippi

Texas (line dropped) 88% on Oklahoma

Arizona St (no movement) 67% on Oregon

Here they don't, for the 100% i'm assuming there is not enough bets to get a good enough data pool

Illinois is 100%
E. Carolina is 100%
Utep/L. Tech is 50/50
Midd Tenn St is 100%
Arizona U is 100%

They also give percentages on teasers and parlays, not sure how we coudl incorporate that. I think it's better to look at this data during game day. Looking at it before may actually be the 'smart money' b/c the public tends to bet during game day.

 

[rscl31]

Will add all the totals later but

Under 44 (from SIA) in Kentucky/S. Carolina is the play tonight.

 

[pops69]

what about colorado state? line opened BYU -2 is now BYU +1, which looks like a 3 point move to me?

 

[DanTanna]

Forgive me for not keeping up, but what's yours and Pete's theory on these line moves against heavy action?

 

[rscl31]

Isn't BYU's QB out, i like to throw out the game if there's a big injury and it seems that betting is about 50/50

 

[rscl31]

The Theory is that

Team A vs Team B
Team A is 4 point favorite as the opening line
The consensus is about 70% on Team A
Team A moves to a 3.5 favorite
The Line should be moving in Team A direction not against it.
Therefore, 'heavy money' must be on Team B to make the line move.
Team B then is the correct side with the 'smart and heavy money'
It's basically taking a look at where 'the professionals' are betting

 

[DanTanna]

Thanks rsc
I like that line of thought. It's one of those simple, rational theories that makes sense.
GL

 

[rscl31]

adding uder 51 in the BYu game

 

[ATX]

I havent had time to respond but I like both unders tonight and BYU, I also liked SCAR but decided to wait until the half.

 

[rscl31]

looks like 0-2 with the totals, ouch

 

[sammythesage]

keep up the good work. am looking at the same thing. that mich.st. line is very strange to say the least.

 

[88cents]

I am sorry but how do you know how much is playing on what team?

 

[rscl31]

under 45 in TCU/S. Florida

just a note, don't play the totals this week, not sure how they will turn out but i think the sides are a good bet, i'm just trying ot keep track of the totals and hwo they do.