It also is a possibility even if Bayh is ultimately selected that Obama may just wait even longer and do it just before the convention. One reason being is McCain for some reason so far has decided not to have any organization or open any offices in Indiana. If Obama announces Bayh sooner rather than later then it maybe gives McCain more time to get his act together there.
See this surprising note...
McCain Camp Has No Plans To Compete In Indiana
Posted by
Ashish on 08.03.2008
Obama will have the entire state to himself...
In a pretty surprising move, the Indianapolis Star has
an article up on how McCain plans to not compete at all in Indiana. When asked if the campaign had plans to open ANY offices in Indiana, a McCain campaign spokeswoman responded with one word: "No."
The Obama campaign has already opened 6 offices with plans to open up to 30 offices. Obama is also running ads in the state.
Keep in mind that the latest poll of Indiana had Obama ahead by 1%. As
Nate points out, it's a pretty risky move by McCain to say the least, and surprising because McCain is taking Obama seriously in a state like Virginia. Indiana is not somewhat insignificant in terms of the electoral college as, say, North Dakota might be. Indiana has 11 electoral votes which makes it one of the larger swing states (if you classify it as such). To ignore it is pretty dangerous. For example, if Obama holds on to the Kerry states as most expect him to do, all he would have to do to get to 270 is win Iowa and Indiana (252+7+11=270). And let's not forget that Obama may pick popular Indiana Senator Evan Bayh as his VP and that would further strengthen him in the state.
I understand McCain's view on states like Montana and North Dakota. They aren't big enough to really change the outcome of the election. Plus, if he loses a state like Montana, he is probably losing the entire election anyway, so no real reason to compete there. But Indiana isn't like that. With such a huge organizational advantage there, he could probably win Indiana without overperforming by any significant margin in other red states, not to mention if he picks Bayh as his VP.
We now have a situation where Obama has Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Indiana, four red states that are all looking like swing states this year, to himself. In the primaries, Obama won huge in states Hillary Clinton ignored, and ignoring so many states ultimately ended up costing Clinton the nomination. MT, ND, SD, and IN combine for 20 electoral votes, more than Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and the same as Ohio. It's a big chunk of states to ignore and could come back to bite McCain.
k:
