Predicting who’s out of the playoffs after November 1

[VegasVic]

I mentioned this in a earlier post but Elliotte Friedman reported that just three of 32 NHL teams at least four points out of a playoff spot on Nov. 1 recovered to make the playoffs from 2005-06 to 2011-12. Since we have two more days of play before this deadline a few teams would need to make the most of this weekend.

Using Friedman’s epiphany you can already say adios to Colorado, Calgary, and Anaheim no matter what they do by Monday. In the east bye-bye to Toronto and Columbus.

Detroit, Buffalo, Edmonton, and San Jose sit precariously close to joining this group without some points in their final game before November 2.

Of course this formula also means the Arizona Coyotes, (currently 200/1 to win the cup), would make the playoffs. I guess no hypothesis is perfect.

 

[Lippman]

I know the formula I use is where teams are after 20 games is usually your playoff teams. I agree with most, but the Ducks just have too many weapons. Once they get a new coach....ahem.....if they get a new coach that will turn things around faster.

 

[VegasVic]

I know the formula I use is where teams are after 20 games is usually your playoff teams. I agree with most, but the Ducks just have too many weapons. Once they get a new coach....ahem.....if they get a new coach that will turn things around faster.

math says otherwise. Providing they need 98 points to make the playoffs, (which could be a low number), they’d have to go something like 45-23-4 the rest of the way. A impossible feat IMO playing in the west.

 

[VegasVic]

Although looking at last year’s standings I see where they went 51-24-7 last year so I guess not out of the realm of possibility.

On the other hand one could argue that the west is more balanced top to bottom this year than last.

 

[Lippman]

Oh I think it's possible for sure. They could get the 7th or 8th spot.

 

[VegasVic]

Using Friedman’s numbers the Western Conference is nearly already locked up. Arizona, Edmonton, Calgary, Anaheim, and Colorado all out. The remaining 9 teams fight for 8 spots.

East is much tighter with only Toronto and Columbus eliminated.

I’ll pull this back up at the end of the year and see how it holds up.

 

[Lippman]

Bump it at allstar break also

 

[VegasVic]

Oh I think it's possible for sure. They could get the 7th or 8th spot.

At this point of time Anaheim is 6 points behind Chicago and San Jose. 10 points behind Nashville and 9 behind Winnipeg. Both are currently in wild card position. Let’s say they can over take San Jose. Can they over take Chicago? They need to beat them both. Or catch Vancouver, (8 points behind), which is the weakest team presently in playoff position.

 

[VegasVic]

Bump it at allstar break also

will do

 

[VegasVic]

At the All-Star break.....

Quite a bit has changed since November the 1st. 5 teams out of 18 have fallen out of the ranks.

Montreal
Ottawa
Vancouver
Minnesota
Winnipeg

The replacements

Florida
Detroit
San Jose
Colorado
Nashville




Playoff/Standings as of the morning 11/1/15

Montreal
Ottawa
Tampa Bay

NY Rangers
Washington
NY Islanders

wild cards
Pittsburgh
Boston


Dallas
Nashville
St Louis

Vancouver
Los Angeles
Arizona

wild cards
Minnesota
Winnipeg


Playoff standings as the all-star break

Florida
Tampa Bay
Detroit

Washington
NY Rangers
NY Islanders

wild cards
Boston
Pittsburgh


Chicago
Dallas
St Louis

Los Angeles
San Jose
Arizona

Colorado
Nashville

 

[sherwood]

So interesting to follow. Thanks VV

 

[Bushay]

4 Canadian teams in the picture on 11-01 and none at the break. This really stands out to me. Why is this? Just doesn't make much sense.

 

[seer]

4 Canadian teams in the picture on 11-01 and none at the break. This really stands out to me. Why is this? Just doesn't make much sense.

mtl is missing their mvp goalie and their fans expecting too much
leafs missing top scorer- they are bad ne ways
edm missing key players and have no veteran leadership to carry them forth
cgy has bad goaltending
ottawa now missing turris. they are offensively gifted but defense wins championships
vancouver- rebuilding. missing top d man hamhuis now henrik. from a fan perspective
i would rather see them miss the playoffs and deal the sedins to a playoff contender

 

[Bushay]

mtl is missing their mvp goalie and their fans expecting too much
leafs missing top scorer- they are bad ne ways
edm missing key players and have no veteran leadership to carry them forth
cgy has bad goaltending
ottawa now missing turris. they are offensively gifted but defense wins championships
vancouver- rebuilding. missing top d man hamhuis now henrik. from a fan perspective
i would rather see them miss the playoffs and deal the sedins to a playoff contender

That reply really wasnt directed towards you. I was looking more for an educated opinion.

 

[seer]

oh is your name vegas vic and the thread starter? seems to me it is a public thread.
that is a reply in a nutshell.
if you think you are a hockey guy - you should know all that anyways. so why ask?
Why is this? Just doesn't make much sense.
seems to me i answered it. you didnt understand why

 

[Bushay]

Just stop will you please? No one takes you seriously in this forum.

 

[seer]

no i am here to stay

 

[seer]

obviously no one takes u seriously - least i didnt let your stupid question hanging around for very long. least i had enough decency to reply