Predicted Scores vs. Vegas Lines

longhorn4413 · Aug 27, 2003

Hey do any of yall remember last season a website that compiled the various ranking services i.e. Massey, Sagarin, Matthews Grid, Dunkel Index, etc. and the guy who ran it calculated a predicted avg vs. the line?

college football prediction tracker

If anyone remembers this, help me out. I believe the criterion was as follows:

3 star play: The predicted score is at least 6.00 above the posted line AND the std. deviation of said game was LOWER than the Avg. of all the std. dev's.

2 star play: The predicted score is at least 6.00 above the posted line AND the std. deviation of said game is HIGHER than the Avg. of all the std. dev's.

1 Star play: The predicted score is at least 3.00 above the posted line BUT LESS than 6.00 above the posted line.

Does this shit ring a bell with anybody?
Or do I need to lay off the hippie lettuce?

Longhorn

[This message was edited by longhorn4413 on August 27, 2003 at 03:48 PM.]

longhorn4413 · Aug 27, 2003

i think this is the link:

http://tbeck.freeshell.org

ATX · Aug 27, 2003

yes, I remember seeing this. I believe I have it saved somewhere in my files. I'll try to dig it up for you when I have a chance (if you havent found what you are looking for). I think this may be more useful as the season progresses. Do you live in Austin? Going to the game?

longhorn4413 · Aug 27, 2003

ATX thanks for the effort. I found it and will post the games that fall under the criterion sometime later today. I'm just down the road from you in San Antonio --home of those World Champion Spurs.

I cant bring myself to sweating my ass off as the stadium this weekend bro. I've sat through more than one of those 6 pm kickoffs. Its someone elses turn.

ATX · Aug 27, 2003

$$pur$$ $$purs$$ $$pur$$ $$pur$$ $$pur$$

God, my accounts loved the Spurs this year!!

Hit the tailgates for 5-6 hours first, you wont feel the heat so much, you wont feel much of anything

BigPete · Aug 27, 2003

Basically if the standard deviation is less the difference of the Ratings avg and Vegas line. Criteria was set by how small the deviation was. The lower the better.

Im waiting a few weeks to use this. I dont like the current power ratings of most of those.

longhorn4413 · Aug 28, 2003

Pete, if i remeber correctly, didnt the avg. of the std. dev's decline each week? I think after a few games this might be a useful tool. Nevertheless, I will try and keep track of these from the outset and see what happens.

Week 1 8/28 to 9/1

These are the #'s with 39 of the 41 in for the week.

Home team listed first. The Average of all the Std. Dev's is 5.80

Pred. Predicted
Team Line Avg. Diff. Std. Dev. Play

Akron 11.00 14.07 3.07 6.60 *
USC 4.00 -4.61 8.61 5.61 ***
GaTech 3.50 -4.21 7.71 4.87 ***
Baylor -10.00 -6.30 3.70 4.19 *
Cal 3.50 7.29 3.79 6.43 *
Georgia -3.00 -13.48 10.48 6.65 **
Colorado 1.50 -5.52 4.02 6.93 *
Illinois -3.50 1.18 4.68 3.59 *
Iowa 11.00 19.28 8.28 6.60 **
La-Monroe 35.00 31.58 3.42 6.37 *
Mia Fla. -28.00 -32.81 4.81 6.87 *
West.Mich. 13.50 7.96 5.54 3.16 *
Oregon -4.50 -8.30 3.80 5.89 *
Ohio St. 9.00 14.84 5.84 6.29 *
N.Tex. 33.00 29.49 3.51 7.28 *
Buffalo 12.50 7.42 5.08 6.59 *
Fresno St. 20.00 11.63 8.37 5.27 ***
Texas 29.00 32.42 3.42 5.92 *
Ark.St. 29.00 25.07 3.93 6.53 *
TexTech 25.00 30.73 5.73 6.86 *
Toledo 0.00 -6.88 6.88 3.23 ***
Utah St. 20.00 14.93 5.07 4.21 *
Virginia 16.00 22.82 6.82 5.95 **
Wash St. 28.00 33.68 5.68 13.66 *
West Va. -3.00 1.72 4.72 3.67 *

longhorn4413 · Aug 28, 2003

One correction: The team the system favors is listed NOT the home team. My mistake.

longhorn4413 · Aug 28, 2003

Update: With the line movement, Akron is a no play now and Colorado is a 2 star play. Also, I overlooked UConn as they meet the criterion for a 1 star play.

Peace...

Longhorn

wallstreetcappers · Aug 28, 2003

This is an interesting theory, how well did this thing do last year?

TIA

longhorn4413 · Aug 29, 2003

Therein lies the rub wallstreet...I cant remember to what extent each of the criterion performed OR underperformed.

Results from Thurs.

*** Star Plays were 0-1
Ga. Tech 13-24

* Star Plays were 1-0-1
Miami 48-9
Utah St. 20-40

I'll try and note any line changes that affect Sat. games this evening.

Longhorn