The 2016 Preakness takes place on May 21 from Pimlico Race Course in Maryland.
Nyquist captured the Kentucky Derby on May 7 from Churchill Downs and has been made the top betting favorite to capture the second leg of the "Triple Crown".
Listed below are horses that could be part of the 14-horse field.
Odds to win 2016 Preakness Stakes
Nyquist 10/19
Exaggerator 15/4
Stradivari 13/2
Gun Runner 8/1
Collected 15/1
Cherry Wine 22/1
Uncle Lino 25/1
Creator 28/1
Fellowship 28/1
Awesome Speed 30/1
Cupid 30/1
Dazzling Gem 30/1
Lani 32/1
Laoban 32/1
Abiding Star 35/1
Odds Subject to Change
Nyquist captured the Kentucky Derby on May 7 from Churchill Downs and has been made the top betting favorite to capture the second leg of the "Triple Crown".
Listed below are horses that could be part of the 14-horse field.
Odds to win 2016 Preakness Stakes
Nyquist 10/19
Exaggerator 15/4
Stradivari 13/2
Gun Runner 8/1
Collected 15/1
Cherry Wine 22/1
Uncle Lino 25/1
Creator 28/1
Fellowship 28/1
Awesome Speed 30/1
Cupid 30/1
Dazzling Gem 30/1
Lani 32/1
Laoban 32/1
Abiding Star 35/1
Odds Subject to Change
Preakness Stakes live long shots you need to know about before betting
By MONIQUE VÁG
This year’s Preakness Stakes includes a large betting field and eight "new" horses who didn’t race in the Kentucky Derby. Eleven others hope to spoil Nyquist’s potential Triple Crown bid.
Here are three Preakness long shots which I think may outrun their odds:
Stradivari (+1,200): It’s not too often Todd Pletcher enters a horse directly from an allowance race into a race the caliber of the Preakness, so that alone is enough to take note of. He’s coming off of two wins, eye-catching ones, but against much easier company. Stradivari was initially entered in a race that was taken off the turf in his maiden start, where the favorite in that race was a colt who finished last by 21 lengths in the Rebel Stakes. The talent may be there, but it’s difficult to gauge really what he can do.
Being lightly raced isn’t the worst: Bernardini was coming off a weak G3 race in 2006 and only had three lifetime starts before his Preakness win. He hadn't beaten “anyone”, but he showed talent. Big Brown in 2008 was coming off an allowance win prior to the Florida Derby. He hadn't beaten anyone of note either. Animal Kingdom hadn't beaten any top competition in his four starts prior to the Kentucky Derby. Unlike the Derby, there will certainly be more horses participating in the pace. I think this colt will certainly appreciate the faster pace to work with. He has a shot.
Collected (+2,500): Another colt that has racing experience over both surfaces. This one has four wins in three starts and finished fourth on his second try on the dirt in the Southwest at Oaklawn Park. Over six starts, he’s raced at five different tracks. He’s coming into the Preakness off a two-race win streak and he may be peaking at the right time.
I’m a huge fan of his breeding, and Collected has multiple G1 winners within his pedigree. He also retains the mount one of the nation’s leading jockeys in Javier Castellano and arguably has the top trainer in Bob Baffert. He’s well bred, fast, fresh, and shown ability to rate well. He’s certainly worth a closer look.
Gun Runner (+1,400): He finished third in the Kentucky Derby and looked at one point like he might be able to run away with it upfront. While he ran a good race at Churchill Downs, I think he was ridden a little bit too early. I don’t think it would have made much of a factor in the final standings in the Derby, but I do think he could have shown a little more in the stretch.
His best shot will come sitting close to the front but off the pace at the Preakness. Distance nor pace will be much of a factor for this one. He isn’t dependent on racing fractions or positioning to be a certain way, which works to his advantage. He’ll certainly be a factor in the race and the shorter distance of the Preakness will be advantageous. Connections seems to like how he’s looked exiting the Derby and his workouts insist he’s ready to go.
By MONIQUE VÁG
This year’s Preakness Stakes includes a large betting field and eight "new" horses who didn’t race in the Kentucky Derby. Eleven others hope to spoil Nyquist’s potential Triple Crown bid.
Here are three Preakness long shots which I think may outrun their odds:
Stradivari (+1,200): It’s not too often Todd Pletcher enters a horse directly from an allowance race into a race the caliber of the Preakness, so that alone is enough to take note of. He’s coming off of two wins, eye-catching ones, but against much easier company. Stradivari was initially entered in a race that was taken off the turf in his maiden start, where the favorite in that race was a colt who finished last by 21 lengths in the Rebel Stakes. The talent may be there, but it’s difficult to gauge really what he can do.
Being lightly raced isn’t the worst: Bernardini was coming off a weak G3 race in 2006 and only had three lifetime starts before his Preakness win. He hadn't beaten “anyone”, but he showed talent. Big Brown in 2008 was coming off an allowance win prior to the Florida Derby. He hadn't beaten anyone of note either. Animal Kingdom hadn't beaten any top competition in his four starts prior to the Kentucky Derby. Unlike the Derby, there will certainly be more horses participating in the pace. I think this colt will certainly appreciate the faster pace to work with. He has a shot.
Collected (+2,500): Another colt that has racing experience over both surfaces. This one has four wins in three starts and finished fourth on his second try on the dirt in the Southwest at Oaklawn Park. Over six starts, he’s raced at five different tracks. He’s coming into the Preakness off a two-race win streak and he may be peaking at the right time.
I’m a huge fan of his breeding, and Collected has multiple G1 winners within his pedigree. He also retains the mount one of the nation’s leading jockeys in Javier Castellano and arguably has the top trainer in Bob Baffert. He’s well bred, fast, fresh, and shown ability to rate well. He’s certainly worth a closer look.
Gun Runner (+1,400): He finished third in the Kentucky Derby and looked at one point like he might be able to run away with it upfront. While he ran a good race at Churchill Downs, I think he was ridden a little bit too early. I don’t think it would have made much of a factor in the final standings in the Derby, but I do think he could have shown a little more in the stretch.
His best shot will come sitting close to the front but off the pace at the Preakness. Distance nor pace will be much of a factor for this one. He isn’t dependent on racing fractions or positioning to be a certain way, which works to his advantage. He’ll certainly be a factor in the race and the shorter distance of the Preakness will be advantageous. Connections seems to like how he’s looked exiting the Derby and his workouts insist he’s ready to go.
Preakness Stakes post draw complete, morning line odds released
The second leg of the Triple Crown is all set for Saturday as the Preakness Stakes held their post position draw and released their morning line odds for the big race.
As expected, Nyquist opens post-draw as the favorite (3-5) with Exaggerator as the second favorite (3-1). The field is clearly set up as a two-horse showdown with Stardivari (8-1) and Collected (10-1) coming in as the third and fourth favorites.
Rain is expected Saturday afternoon at Pimlico. The forcast is calling for a half an inch of rain in the afternoon and cool, misty conditions for post time at 6:45 PM ET.
Here are the post positions and odds for the full field:
Post Position Horse Jockey Trainer *ML Odds
1 Cherry Wine Corey Lanerie Dale Romans 20/1
2 Uncle Lino Fernando Perez Gary Sherlock 20/1
3 Nyquist Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill 3/5
4 Awesome Speed Alan Goldberg Jevian Toledo 30/1
5 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 3/1
6 Lani Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga 30/1
7 Collected Javier Castellano Bob Baffert 10/1
8 Laoban Eric Guillot Ricardo Santana Jr. 30/1
9 Abiding Star Ned Allar J.D. Acosta 30/1
10 Fellowship Jose Lezcano Mark Casse 30/1
11 Stradivari John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 8/1
The second leg of the Triple Crown is all set for Saturday as the Preakness Stakes held their post position draw and released their morning line odds for the big race.
As expected, Nyquist opens post-draw as the favorite (3-5) with Exaggerator as the second favorite (3-1). The field is clearly set up as a two-horse showdown with Stardivari (8-1) and Collected (10-1) coming in as the third and fourth favorites.
Rain is expected Saturday afternoon at Pimlico. The forcast is calling for a half an inch of rain in the afternoon and cool, misty conditions for post time at 6:45 PM ET.
Here are the post positions and odds for the full field:
Post Position Horse Jockey Trainer *ML Odds
1 Cherry Wine Corey Lanerie Dale Romans 20/1
2 Uncle Lino Fernando Perez Gary Sherlock 20/1
3 Nyquist Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill 3/5
4 Awesome Speed Alan Goldberg Jevian Toledo 30/1
5 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 3/1
6 Lani Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga 30/1
7 Collected Javier Castellano Bob Baffert 10/1
8 Laoban Eric Guillot Ricardo Santana Jr. 30/1
9 Abiding Star Ned Allar J.D. Acosta 30/1
10 Fellowship Jose Lezcano Mark Casse 30/1
11 Stradivari John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 8/1
Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes
Nyquist Favored for Preakness Stakes
The Preakness Stakes is set for Saturday, May 21 at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. The spotlight will be on Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, as he goes for the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
Nyquist is undefeated, with seven graded stakes wins since breaking his maiden last June. He will likely be challenged by Exaggerator, who has yet to beat Nyquist in four head-to-head starts, including the San Vicente Stakes and the Kentucky Derby, both of which he placed second. He is 9/2 to win the Preakness as we go to press.
However, all eyes will definitely be on Nyquist, who's the 5/8 favorite to win the Preakness, and there are already prop bets that will allow you to wager on him winning the Triple Crown (yes is 2/1). This would be great for horse racing because it would produce back-to-back Triple Crown wins, following American Pharoah's 2015 success. The last Triple Crown win before American Pharoah came in 1978, which was the second of back-to-back wins after Seattle Slew won it in 1977.
Nyquist Favored for Preakness Stakes
The Preakness Stakes is set for Saturday, May 21 at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. The spotlight will be on Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, as he goes for the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
Nyquist is undefeated, with seven graded stakes wins since breaking his maiden last June. He will likely be challenged by Exaggerator, who has yet to beat Nyquist in four head-to-head starts, including the San Vicente Stakes and the Kentucky Derby, both of which he placed second. He is 9/2 to win the Preakness as we go to press.
However, all eyes will definitely be on Nyquist, who's the 5/8 favorite to win the Preakness, and there are already prop bets that will allow you to wager on him winning the Triple Crown (yes is 2/1). This would be great for horse racing because it would produce back-to-back Triple Crown wins, following American Pharoah's 2015 success. The last Triple Crown win before American Pharoah came in 1978, which was the second of back-to-back wins after Seattle Slew won it in 1977.
Preakness Stakes Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
The second leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 141st running of the Preakness Stakes!
Preakness Stakes Odds
2016 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)
1 – Cherry Wine 20/1 Corey Lanerie (Debut) Dale Romans (1-4)
Notes: Was on the outside looking in Louisville due to a lack of Derby points after finishing fourth in the Rebel and third in the Blue Grass. He’ll be making his third start since a ten week break and should be able to save plenty of ground from his inside draw under Lanerie, aka Calvin Borel, Jr. for his love of coming up the rail. There is a pretty good chance of rain and I wouldn’t be surprised if the track is fairly wet, something he shouldn’t mind considering his daylight maiden score in the slop at Churchill last year. Would need things to go perfectly to win this for a guy who trained Shackelford to do just that in 2011 but it wouldn’t stun me if he found his way into the tri or super at a decent price.
2 – Uncle Lino 20/1 Fernando Perez (Debut) Gary Sherlock (Debut)
Notes: His trainer took the mystery out of who’ll be on the lead when he threw down the gauntlet Thursday, announcing that they planned on gunning this guy to the top, pretty much letting the other front runners know that they’ll have to get their Preak on if they want to be on the engine. He comes into this off of a sharp gate-to-wire tally in the California Chrome against lesser at Los Al and my biggest problem with him is his lack of class. He’s been fairly overmatched when he’s tried graded stakes company in the past and now he’s trying to win an American classic. Should be a part of a healthy early pace but nothing more.
3 - Nyquist 3/5 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug O’Neill (1-2)
Notes: I wasn’t buying into him going into the Derby despite his perfect record. I couldn’t believe he was 2-1 and thought he was a sucka bet. Boy, was I wrong. He was forwardly placed into a hot pace, he made his winning move into the teeth of said pace and held off his rival through the lane, turning what I thought to be a well-matched Derby into a proverbial laugher. He looked the winner nearly every step of the way. And maybe he’s just that much better than these. On a fast track, he probably wins this 85% of the time, making him an overlay on the morning line. If it comes up wet, things could be different but he can still certainly win. I can’t pick him at that price because it’s not what I do. So I will make another my official pick and make a win bet on a horse that’ll be a better price but you can be sure he’ll be on every single Pick 4 ticket I punch this Saturday.
4 – Awesome Speed 30/1 Jevian Toledo (Debut) Alan Goldberg (Debut)
Notes: Was elevated to first across town at Laurel in the Tesio last out when he was bumped late by a horse who wound up second in the Peter Pan last Saturday at Belmont. He was on the lead every step of the way except the last few and has done all of his best running on or close to the lead. Figures to have his hands full with Uncle Lino and one or two others up front early before fading late. Not for me.
5 – Exaggerator 3/1 Kent Desormeaux (2-13) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: He ran the race of his life in the Derby but fell 1 ¼ lengths short of Nyquist. Again. Right now, it’s Nyquist 4, Exaggerator 0. But Mother Nature may prove to be his best friend come Saturday because he moves up big time on a wet track, enough to turn the tables I believe. It’s not like Nyquist beats him by insurmountable margins, he just beats him. On a wet track though, it’s an entirely different story. Here’s the thing, however. If it’s dry, I’m going to try and get him out of the number. I feel his best chance to date to get Nyquist was in the Derby and he couldn’t. The dynamics of this race should favor Nyquist more so than him. For those of you loyal readers, you know I’m not one to hedge my bets, but I have to in here. So, to recap, a major player on a wet track, giving Kent a chance to win his third Preakness, but one I’m trying to beat if it’s fast.
6 – Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (Debut) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: The Japanese import beat more than half the field in the Derby and is the lone carryover, save the first two finishers, from Kentucky. His bad behavior in and around the gate hurt his chances before the real running even begins. His connections have announced that he’s running in all three Triple Crown events and maybe this is part of a journey to their best chance to win one, the Belmont Stakes. I don’t like him in here but check back with me in three weeks.
7 – Collected 10/1 Javier Castellano (1-4) Bob Baffert (6-17)
Notes: On the HRRN draw show Wednesday night, Baffert said this was his favorite stop on the Triple Crown Trail. With six wins under his belt, including last years’ with American Pharoah, who can blame him for saying that? This year, he send a horse that’s a three time stakes winner with a jockey who won this in upset fashion aboard Bernardini in 2006 who also happens to be the guy that won the last three Eclipse Awards for Outstanding Jockey. His human connections notwithstanding, he’s another whose class I seriously doubt. There is plenty of money to be made in places like Indiana and Ohio and West Virginia with a horse like this. But I doubt he’ll make any in Maryland.
8 – Laoban 30/1 Florent Geroux (Debut) Eric Guillot (Debut)
Notes: Was an AE in Kentucky like Cherry Wine but unlike his counterpart this guy is still a maiden. He has a decent enough resume – third in the G3 Sham, second in the G3 Gotham, fourth in the Blue Grass – but he is a MAIDEN. And his eccentric conditioner is taking the blinkers off, a big no-no for me. I never understood equipment changes in the biggest race of a horse’s’ life. Another who likes to be free-wheeling on the lead. I don’t see that happening in here. I’m tossing him.
9 – Abiding Star 30/1 J.D. Acosta (Debut) Ed Allard (Debut)
Notes: Was quarantined at Parx due to an equine herpes virus until earlier this week, leaving his status in doubt until that time. He rides a five race win-streak, one that started in a $40K maiden claimer, into this but does have a couple of minor stakes wins under his belt as well. Another who needs the lead, he’s one of four Uncle Mo’s in the field. That’s probably the best thing you can say about him. Not for me.
10 – Fellowship 30/1 Jose Lezcano (0-1) Mark Casse (0-2)
Notes: When his connections realized they weren’t getting into the Derby, they went with Plan B, the Pat Day Mile, on the undercard, a race he managed to finish fourth in. I’m not great at math but I’m not sure how fourth on the undercard equates to a Preakness run but maybe it’s me. His lone stakes win came against fellow Florida-breds and he’ll need things to go perfectly to even get a small piece of this. I’m tossing him.
11 – Stradivari 8/1 John Velazquez (0-6) Todd Pletcher (0-7)
Notes: He’s my official pick to win this but that’s mainly because he has a ton of upside, he’ll be the best price, by far, of the three horses I think can win this and Pletcher rarely ships them down to Pimlico. The latter is the most intriguing part of this Preakness puzzle, in my opinion. He’s run 45 horses in the Derby, 20 in the Belmont but just seven in here. Why this guy? I know the maiden win followed four-plus months later were both daylight scores but he usually takes a far more conservative approach. He’s won over a wet track and should be able to work out a clean, stalking trip from his outside post. He’s my win bet and I’ll be using him with Nyquist and Exaggerator (if it’s wet) on my Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets.
By Anthony Stabile
The second leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 141st running of the Preakness Stakes!
Preakness Stakes Odds
2016 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)
1 – Cherry Wine 20/1 Corey Lanerie (Debut) Dale Romans (1-4)
Notes: Was on the outside looking in Louisville due to a lack of Derby points after finishing fourth in the Rebel and third in the Blue Grass. He’ll be making his third start since a ten week break and should be able to save plenty of ground from his inside draw under Lanerie, aka Calvin Borel, Jr. for his love of coming up the rail. There is a pretty good chance of rain and I wouldn’t be surprised if the track is fairly wet, something he shouldn’t mind considering his daylight maiden score in the slop at Churchill last year. Would need things to go perfectly to win this for a guy who trained Shackelford to do just that in 2011 but it wouldn’t stun me if he found his way into the tri or super at a decent price.
2 – Uncle Lino 20/1 Fernando Perez (Debut) Gary Sherlock (Debut)
Notes: His trainer took the mystery out of who’ll be on the lead when he threw down the gauntlet Thursday, announcing that they planned on gunning this guy to the top, pretty much letting the other front runners know that they’ll have to get their Preak on if they want to be on the engine. He comes into this off of a sharp gate-to-wire tally in the California Chrome against lesser at Los Al and my biggest problem with him is his lack of class. He’s been fairly overmatched when he’s tried graded stakes company in the past and now he’s trying to win an American classic. Should be a part of a healthy early pace but nothing more.
3 - Nyquist 3/5 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug O’Neill (1-2)
Notes: I wasn’t buying into him going into the Derby despite his perfect record. I couldn’t believe he was 2-1 and thought he was a sucka bet. Boy, was I wrong. He was forwardly placed into a hot pace, he made his winning move into the teeth of said pace and held off his rival through the lane, turning what I thought to be a well-matched Derby into a proverbial laugher. He looked the winner nearly every step of the way. And maybe he’s just that much better than these. On a fast track, he probably wins this 85% of the time, making him an overlay on the morning line. If it comes up wet, things could be different but he can still certainly win. I can’t pick him at that price because it’s not what I do. So I will make another my official pick and make a win bet on a horse that’ll be a better price but you can be sure he’ll be on every single Pick 4 ticket I punch this Saturday.
4 – Awesome Speed 30/1 Jevian Toledo (Debut) Alan Goldberg (Debut)
Notes: Was elevated to first across town at Laurel in the Tesio last out when he was bumped late by a horse who wound up second in the Peter Pan last Saturday at Belmont. He was on the lead every step of the way except the last few and has done all of his best running on or close to the lead. Figures to have his hands full with Uncle Lino and one or two others up front early before fading late. Not for me.
5 – Exaggerator 3/1 Kent Desormeaux (2-13) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: He ran the race of his life in the Derby but fell 1 ¼ lengths short of Nyquist. Again. Right now, it’s Nyquist 4, Exaggerator 0. But Mother Nature may prove to be his best friend come Saturday because he moves up big time on a wet track, enough to turn the tables I believe. It’s not like Nyquist beats him by insurmountable margins, he just beats him. On a wet track though, it’s an entirely different story. Here’s the thing, however. If it’s dry, I’m going to try and get him out of the number. I feel his best chance to date to get Nyquist was in the Derby and he couldn’t. The dynamics of this race should favor Nyquist more so than him. For those of you loyal readers, you know I’m not one to hedge my bets, but I have to in here. So, to recap, a major player on a wet track, giving Kent a chance to win his third Preakness, but one I’m trying to beat if it’s fast.
6 – Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (Debut) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: The Japanese import beat more than half the field in the Derby and is the lone carryover, save the first two finishers, from Kentucky. His bad behavior in and around the gate hurt his chances before the real running even begins. His connections have announced that he’s running in all three Triple Crown events and maybe this is part of a journey to their best chance to win one, the Belmont Stakes. I don’t like him in here but check back with me in three weeks.
7 – Collected 10/1 Javier Castellano (1-4) Bob Baffert (6-17)
Notes: On the HRRN draw show Wednesday night, Baffert said this was his favorite stop on the Triple Crown Trail. With six wins under his belt, including last years’ with American Pharoah, who can blame him for saying that? This year, he send a horse that’s a three time stakes winner with a jockey who won this in upset fashion aboard Bernardini in 2006 who also happens to be the guy that won the last three Eclipse Awards for Outstanding Jockey. His human connections notwithstanding, he’s another whose class I seriously doubt. There is plenty of money to be made in places like Indiana and Ohio and West Virginia with a horse like this. But I doubt he’ll make any in Maryland.
8 – Laoban 30/1 Florent Geroux (Debut) Eric Guillot (Debut)
Notes: Was an AE in Kentucky like Cherry Wine but unlike his counterpart this guy is still a maiden. He has a decent enough resume – third in the G3 Sham, second in the G3 Gotham, fourth in the Blue Grass – but he is a MAIDEN. And his eccentric conditioner is taking the blinkers off, a big no-no for me. I never understood equipment changes in the biggest race of a horse’s’ life. Another who likes to be free-wheeling on the lead. I don’t see that happening in here. I’m tossing him.
9 – Abiding Star 30/1 J.D. Acosta (Debut) Ed Allard (Debut)
Notes: Was quarantined at Parx due to an equine herpes virus until earlier this week, leaving his status in doubt until that time. He rides a five race win-streak, one that started in a $40K maiden claimer, into this but does have a couple of minor stakes wins under his belt as well. Another who needs the lead, he’s one of four Uncle Mo’s in the field. That’s probably the best thing you can say about him. Not for me.
10 – Fellowship 30/1 Jose Lezcano (0-1) Mark Casse (0-2)
Notes: When his connections realized they weren’t getting into the Derby, they went with Plan B, the Pat Day Mile, on the undercard, a race he managed to finish fourth in. I’m not great at math but I’m not sure how fourth on the undercard equates to a Preakness run but maybe it’s me. His lone stakes win came against fellow Florida-breds and he’ll need things to go perfectly to even get a small piece of this. I’m tossing him.
11 – Stradivari 8/1 John Velazquez (0-6) Todd Pletcher (0-7)
Notes: He’s my official pick to win this but that’s mainly because he has a ton of upside, he’ll be the best price, by far, of the three horses I think can win this and Pletcher rarely ships them down to Pimlico. The latter is the most intriguing part of this Preakness puzzle, in my opinion. He’s run 45 horses in the Derby, 20 in the Belmont but just seven in here. Why this guy? I know the maiden win followed four-plus months later were both daylight scores but he usually takes a far more conservative approach. He’s won over a wet track and should be able to work out a clean, stalking trip from his outside post. He’s my win bet and I’ll be using him with Nyquist and Exaggerator (if it’s wet) on my Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets.
Mike Dempsey
PIM Race 13 The Preakness G1 (6:45 ET) ML FAIR
#3 Nyquist 3-5 4-5
#7 Collected 10-1 8-1
#5 Exaggerator 3-1 3-1
#10 Fellowship 30-1 20-1
Analysis: Nyquist is perfect in eight career starts and earned a career top Beyer Speed Figure in his Kentucky Derby (G1) win. He comes back in two weeks but let's not forget he has had a light campaign, just the seven furlong San Vicente (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) before his Kentucky Derby victory. O'Neill has been down this path before with I'll Have Another. The colt should get a perfect trip sitting just off the pace and Derby winners and favorites have been dominant in this race. The chance of a wet track should not pose a problem as he ran well over a wet track at Gulfstream Park and is bred to like a wet track. The lone knock on this guy is his price.
Collected is coming off a sharp win in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland last out. After winning the Sham (G3) earlier this year he went into Oaklawn Park and was sent off as the betting favorite in the Southwest (G3) but came up short in a fourth place finish. He has bounced back with two wins for Baffert who has won the Preakness six times. He has not has success with starters that did not race in the Derby first, but this colt still looks as if he has some upside, has a strong off track pedigree, and will have the jump on Exaggerator heading for home.
Exaggerator made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot in the Derby but has now finished behind Nyquist four times and hard to find a reason he will turn the tables here. He does like an off track as his Santa Anita Derby (G1) win in the slop was one of the most impressive Derby prep races. However, the Pimlico surface dries out fast and the forecast is not always right. He should get some pace to run at but he may end up with too much to do in the final furlong.
Fellowship ran third in the Holy Bull (G2), Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1). His first start for trainer Mark Casse did not go well in a fourth place finish in the Pat Day Mile (G3). He has not run fast enough to win here but could rally for a small piece at a decent price.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4-5 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,5,7,10
TRI: 3,7 / 3,5,7,10 / 3,5,7,10,11
PIM Race 13 The Preakness G1 (6:45 ET) ML FAIR
#3 Nyquist 3-5 4-5
#7 Collected 10-1 8-1
#5 Exaggerator 3-1 3-1
#10 Fellowship 30-1 20-1
Analysis: Nyquist is perfect in eight career starts and earned a career top Beyer Speed Figure in his Kentucky Derby (G1) win. He comes back in two weeks but let's not forget he has had a light campaign, just the seven furlong San Vicente (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) before his Kentucky Derby victory. O'Neill has been down this path before with I'll Have Another. The colt should get a perfect trip sitting just off the pace and Derby winners and favorites have been dominant in this race. The chance of a wet track should not pose a problem as he ran well over a wet track at Gulfstream Park and is bred to like a wet track. The lone knock on this guy is his price.
Collected is coming off a sharp win in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland last out. After winning the Sham (G3) earlier this year he went into Oaklawn Park and was sent off as the betting favorite in the Southwest (G3) but came up short in a fourth place finish. He has bounced back with two wins for Baffert who has won the Preakness six times. He has not has success with starters that did not race in the Derby first, but this colt still looks as if he has some upside, has a strong off track pedigree, and will have the jump on Exaggerator heading for home.
Exaggerator made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot in the Derby but has now finished behind Nyquist four times and hard to find a reason he will turn the tables here. He does like an off track as his Santa Anita Derby (G1) win in the slop was one of the most impressive Derby prep races. However, the Pimlico surface dries out fast and the forecast is not always right. He should get some pace to run at but he may end up with too much to do in the final furlong.
Fellowship ran third in the Holy Bull (G2), Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1). His first start for trainer Mark Casse did not go well in a fourth place finish in the Pat Day Mile (G3). He has not run fast enough to win here but could rally for a small piece at a decent price.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4-5 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,5,7,10
TRI: 3,7 / 3,5,7,10 / 3,5,7,10,11
Cherry Wine --- He has never been closer than 6th after the opening quarter mile through eight career races. He is shown near the back of the field (note the 6 is shown as a Deep Closer) as he should be.
Uncle Lino --- It should be noted that both of his career wins have come in wire- to-wire fashion. With Cherry Wine the lone horse drawn inside of him, it is very likely Uncle Lino will move to the rail soon after the start. This horse is likely to try for the lead and may very well be closer than shown or even up front.
Nyquist --- The Derby winner has proven versatile in his undefeated, eight-race career. He has won races wire to wire and from just off the pace, and he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile from the back half of the field after a poor break. The Pace Projector shows him in second position early, but sitting in fourth behind the 2, 3, and 8 is a distinct possibility. If the pace gets too hot, he’ll drop back and let the others go.
Awesome Speed --- Listed as a Tracker by TimeformUS, he likes to be up near the front in his best races. He is shown in sixth in the Pace Projector, largely because he doesn’t have the ability of several others in the field. This horse is totally overmatched, but in a route race, most horses can be a factor for at least a short time if pushed hard enough.
Exaggerator --- He is shown near the back of the field and that is no surprise. He has come from well behind to win the G1 Santa Anita Derby and used the same tactics when finishing second to Nyquist in the Kentucky Derby. He was actually in front of Nyquist in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile for over six furlongs and has lost to him on four occasions. It is a near certainty he won’t be in front of him early in the race on Saturday, and the expected fast pace gives him a chance to turn the tables.
Lani --- The Japanese shipper is not a good gate horse and doesn’t have much early speed. He is projected to be too far back in the Pace Projector to “fit in the picture” and is shown as a Deep Closer. Anything different would be a surprise.
Collected --- Shown 5th early, he is another, like Awesome Speed, who likes to be up close in his races. Jockey strategy will play a big role with this horse and a more forward position would not be a stretch.
Laoban --- Probably the best three-year-old maiden in the United States, he is shown as the early leader in the Pace Projector. He has led from the start into the stretch of three of his last four races. All three show the fractions in red, meaning the pace was hot. He is likely to lead the Preakness. The one caution is that he is removing blinkers for the first time since his career debut and may not be as keen early, though it should be noted that the TimeformUS Pace Projector makes algorithmic adjustments for blinkers off.
Abiding Star --- Has led early in his last eight races, including a few sprints. He is shown in a battle for second early but will almost assuredly be trying for the lead. He’ll be a big part of the early pace.
Fellowship --- Closer is shown in front of only Lani and Cherry Wine early. It would be quite a stretch to picture him anywhere but well back in the early running.
Stradivari --- This is probably the toughest horse to gauge from a pace perspective. He is lightly raced and comes in off two wins by a combined 25+ lengths. In both he was right near the front early and took over after a half mile. He is shown in the middle of the pack in the Pace Projector. With his outside post draw, that seems a reasonable placement. There is a lot of speed inside and letting those go and tucking behind them would seem like the best move for a horse that is still learning the game.
Conclusion:
The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates the Preakness will have a fast pace. A thorough, more traditional type of pace analysis leads to the same conclusion and even suggests “fast pace” could be an understatement. The Kentucky Derby winner and race favorite Nyquist is a versatile sort that has adapted to this scenario a few times before. ML second-choice Exaggerator is a closer that should be aided by the pace. If looking for horses to fill out vertical exotic wagers (trifectas, superfectas, super high 5s), it is probably best to focus on horses that won’t be up front early.
Uncle Lino --- It should be noted that both of his career wins have come in wire- to-wire fashion. With Cherry Wine the lone horse drawn inside of him, it is very likely Uncle Lino will move to the rail soon after the start. This horse is likely to try for the lead and may very well be closer than shown or even up front.
Nyquist --- The Derby winner has proven versatile in his undefeated, eight-race career. He has won races wire to wire and from just off the pace, and he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile from the back half of the field after a poor break. The Pace Projector shows him in second position early, but sitting in fourth behind the 2, 3, and 8 is a distinct possibility. If the pace gets too hot, he’ll drop back and let the others go.
Awesome Speed --- Listed as a Tracker by TimeformUS, he likes to be up near the front in his best races. He is shown in sixth in the Pace Projector, largely because he doesn’t have the ability of several others in the field. This horse is totally overmatched, but in a route race, most horses can be a factor for at least a short time if pushed hard enough.
Exaggerator --- He is shown near the back of the field and that is no surprise. He has come from well behind to win the G1 Santa Anita Derby and used the same tactics when finishing second to Nyquist in the Kentucky Derby. He was actually in front of Nyquist in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile for over six furlongs and has lost to him on four occasions. It is a near certainty he won’t be in front of him early in the race on Saturday, and the expected fast pace gives him a chance to turn the tables.
Lani --- The Japanese shipper is not a good gate horse and doesn’t have much early speed. He is projected to be too far back in the Pace Projector to “fit in the picture” and is shown as a Deep Closer. Anything different would be a surprise.
Collected --- Shown 5th early, he is another, like Awesome Speed, who likes to be up close in his races. Jockey strategy will play a big role with this horse and a more forward position would not be a stretch.
Laoban --- Probably the best three-year-old maiden in the United States, he is shown as the early leader in the Pace Projector. He has led from the start into the stretch of three of his last four races. All three show the fractions in red, meaning the pace was hot. He is likely to lead the Preakness. The one caution is that he is removing blinkers for the first time since his career debut and may not be as keen early, though it should be noted that the TimeformUS Pace Projector makes algorithmic adjustments for blinkers off.
Abiding Star --- Has led early in his last eight races, including a few sprints. He is shown in a battle for second early but will almost assuredly be trying for the lead. He’ll be a big part of the early pace.
Fellowship --- Closer is shown in front of only Lani and Cherry Wine early. It would be quite a stretch to picture him anywhere but well back in the early running.
Stradivari --- This is probably the toughest horse to gauge from a pace perspective. He is lightly raced and comes in off two wins by a combined 25+ lengths. In both he was right near the front early and took over after a half mile. He is shown in the middle of the pack in the Pace Projector. With his outside post draw, that seems a reasonable placement. There is a lot of speed inside and letting those go and tucking behind them would seem like the best move for a horse that is still learning the game.
Conclusion:
The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates the Preakness will have a fast pace. A thorough, more traditional type of pace analysis leads to the same conclusion and even suggests “fast pace” could be an understatement. The Kentucky Derby winner and race favorite Nyquist is a versatile sort that has adapted to this scenario a few times before. ML second-choice Exaggerator is a closer that should be aided by the pace. If looking for horses to fill out vertical exotic wagers (trifectas, superfectas, super high 5s), it is probably best to focus on horses that won’t be up front early.
The Preakness | Pimlico | Race 13 | 6:45 PM EDT By TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
It should come as no surprise that so few Kentucky Derby participants were willing to wheel back in two weeks for the Grade 1, $1.5 million Preakness Stakes, given that this was one of the most formful Derbies in recent memory. Indeed, the first four finishers in the wagering filled out the superfecta in order of their odds, with favored Nyquist coming out on top. Aside from Nyquist and Exaggerator, only ninth-place finisher Lani is making the trip to Baltimore after exiting the Kentucky Derby. The rest of the field has been filled out by new shooters. A few were Derby trail disappointments that did not earn enough points to make it into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Others never had the Derby on their radar and are just now attempting to step up in class, sensing an opportunity here, with so many of the elite three-year- olds deciding to pass this race. Pace was a major factor in the outcome of the Kentucky Derby. The race featured a very fast pace that almost collapsed late, allowing for some closers to make up a significant amount of ground in the stretch. We say “almost” because Nyquist and, to a lesser extent, Gun Runner were the only horses that were able to overcome such taxing early fractions. While the inclination might be to upgrade Nyquist’s performance heading into this race, a very similar scenario could play out once again. There is a lot of speed signed on for this Preakness. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, to be set by the maiden Laoban (#8). Nyquist (#3) heads up the second flight of runners, which also includes Uncle Lino (#2), Collected (#7), and Abiding Star (#9). This would appear to set the table for Exaggerator (#5), as well as for any other late runners looking to crash the superfecta. (For further analysis of the Preakness Pace, read the piece from Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski.)
#1, Cherry Wine (20/1): Following a visually impressive allowance win in January, this colt was given a couple of chances to make the Kentucky Derby. While he did not run badly in either prep, he didn’t quite earn enough points to get into the starting gate at Churchill Downs. Some of the positives with this Dale Romans trainee are that his speed figures are heading in the right direction and his closing running style should be well-suited to a race that is predicted to feature a fast pace. He even handled a sloppy track as a two-year-old, which may very well come into play on Preakness day. The only knock we have against him is that he may just not be good enough. He got favorable paces to close into in both the Rebel and Blue Grass and still found a few others better than he. Most notably, the horses that defeated him in the Blue Grass were no match for Nyquist or Exaggerator in the Kentucky Derby. We’ll primarily use him underneath, on the bottom rungs of the superfecta.
#2, Uncle Lino (30/1): One of four sons of Uncle Mo in this race, he was another runner that did not make the cutoff for the Kentucky Derby. However, unlike Cherry Wine, he got a race in three weeks after his final Derby prep, winning a listed stakes at Los Alamitos. He actually ran fairly well two races back, in the Santa Anita Derby, chasing the fast pace set by Danzing Candy before getting blown away by Exaggerator in the stretch. Still, the 113 and 114 speed figures that he’s earned in his last two starts make him faster than much of this Preakness field. Like Nyquist, he’s a stalker that must avoid getting caught up in what is likely to be a fast pace. He’s worthy of superfecta inclusion.
#3, Nyquist (3/5): The first undefeated Kentucky Derby winner since Smarty Jones will be seeking his ninth consecutive victory while attempting to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown, potentially putting him in position to become the thirteenth Triple Crown winner. There’s no denying that this horse ran the best race in the Derby. He survived a very fast pace, easily put away Gun Runner at the top of the stretch, and held off the late charge of Exaggerator. The effort was good enough to earn him a 123 speed figure, four points higher than Exaggerator’s best lifetime performance, and nearly 10 points higher than what anyone else in this field has accomplished. The beauty of Nyquist is that he’s not only fast, but he’s quite versatile. In last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he was perfectly content to rate about three or four lengths off the pace before unleashing a wide rally to the lead at the top of the stretch. That tractability should serve him well in a race featuring a lot of speed runners, the majority of which are drawn to his outside. Mario Gutierrez will probably have to use him a little bit out of the gate so as to avoid getting a ton of dirt (or mud) kicked back in his face. We also don’t know how the track condition will affect him, since the only time he raced over less-than-fast ground was in his wire-to-wire Florida Derby victory. Yet these are minor concerns at best. This horse has an excellent chance to win the Preakness. The only real question that remains is one of value, since his 3/5 morning line price is slightly lower than we’d be inclined to take, especially given the presence of a legitimate foe in Exaggerator.
#4, Awesome Speed (30/1): He’s an admirable sort, having won four of his six lifetime starts, the last via disqualification when he was legitimately put up over Governor Malibu. That one came back with a strong effort in the Peter Pan at Belmont last weekend, earning a 112 speed figure. That said, Awesome Speed has never recorded a figure above 102 and is highly questionable at this nine and a half furlong distance. He’s not for us.
#5, Exaggerator (3/1): At a time when even the elite three-year-olds are raced so sparingly, it’s refreshing to encounter a horse like Exaggerator, who made his 10th lifetime start in the Kentucky Derby, after having competed in eight straight graded stakes races dating back to August of his two-year-old season. All of that racing has apparently had no ill effects on this son of Curlin, since he’s continued to improve his speed figures with each start as a three-year-old. He entered the Kentucky Derby with the best last-out speed figure of 118 for his blowout win in the Santa Anita Derby. His connections tried something new that day, taking him well off the pace in the early going before launching one sustained run from the back of the pack. It worked wonders that day, and they stuck to that plan in the Kentucky Derby. While he did encounter some traffic trouble around the three-eighths pole at Churchill Downs, Kent Desormeaux did a great job working him out into the clear by the time the field reached the top of the stretch. He unleashed a furious rally, making up many lengths on Nyquist through the final quarter mile, but fell just over a length short. So what’s different today? For one thing, Exaggerator loves a wet track, having run especially well over sealed surfaces in both the Delta Jackpot and Santa Anita Derby. As of Thursday morning, there’s an 80% chance of rain in Baltimore on Saturday. Additionally, Exaggerator is going to get a fast pace to close into once again, and, facing this small field, he is unlikely to encounter the traffic issues that hampered him on Derby Day. Nyquist is undefeated, but he’s not invincible. Value still matters, and if Nyquist is going off at 3/5 while Exaggerator is 3/1, as the morning line suggests, we will be betting the Derby runner-up.
#6, Lani (30/1): Lani was the talk of Louisville heading into the Kentucky Derby, more for his unusual morning antics than about his chances to actually win the race. Considering all that he was up against, Lani's performance in the Derby was fairly respectable. He finished ninth, beating over half the field. After getting away from the gate slowly, he lagged far back in the early going. Yutaka Take guided him outside of horses exiting the backstretch, which resulted in his losing a lot of ground around the far turn as he raced four-to five-wide before getting spun out even farther as he bore out into the stretch. Stamina does not appear to be an issue for this colt, and his plodding style may actually fit with the dynamics of this race. Furthermore, he's handled wet tracks in Japan, so rain should not be a concern, and by all accounts, he's been much better behaved training at Belmont in recent weeks. We doubt he's good enough to actually beat Nyquist or Exaggerator, but Lani is very much in the mix to round out the trifecta in this Preakness, and his price should be generous.
#7, Collected (12/1): This Bob Baffert trainee was steered off the Derby trail after a disappointing fourth place finish in the Southwest earlier this winter. Targeting easier spots, he racked up visually impressive scores at Sunland Park and in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. His connections have had the Preakness in their sights for some time now, and he's done nothing wrong on his way to getting here. However, he's another runner with speed in a race loaded with pace players. Furthermore, he still has some stamina questions to answer, since winning a nine furlong ungraded stakes at Sunland Park is not quite as demanding as competing in one of the major Derby preps. He's far from impossible, but we get the feeling that he and Stradivari are going to be two of the shorter prices in this race despite the fact that they have not run significantly faster than many of the other fringe players. We think there are more interesting horses to use underneath at bigger prices.
#8, Laoban (30/1): While the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be racing on a clear lead in the early going, it is somewhat interesting that his connections are removing the blinkers today. However, even if they're successful in getting Laoban to relax early, there are plenty of other frontrunners that would be more than willing to take up the running and still ensure that this is an honestly run race. Whatever the tactics, this colt is not without a chance in the Preakness. Of the two horses coming out of the Blue Grass, he certainly ran the better race than Cherry Wine. He was sent hard to the lead, laid down quick fractions, and fought off the favorite, Zulu, in upper stretch before getting swallowed up by the closers in the last furlong. A mile and three-sixteenths may be a stretch for him, but others have to answer similar questions. There are others that we find more attractive, but we still wouldn't be surprised to see him still in the hunt as the field turns for home.
#9, Abiding Star (30/1): It isn't wise to underestimate horses that are in great form, especially when their confidence is high. That has to be the case with Abiding Star, who comes into this race riding a five-race winning streak. That said, it wasn't until two starts ago that he took his game to the next level. Facing a decent group of seasoned older runners, this colt basically ran off midway through the race and never looked back, drawing off to an impressive score while earning a 114 speed figure, tied for the fastest race run by any of these runners not named Nyquist or Exaggerator. It seems like a wet track would only better his chances. We wouldn't be surprised if he challenged Laoban for the early lead and could even see him as the one speed that's still trying to fend off Nyquist approaching the quarter pole. Essentially, we think he sports a very similar profile to Stradivari, except he's going to be about three or four times the price of that one. That's good enough for us to throw him into our exotic wagers.
#10, Fellowship (30/1): We put him in the same category as Cherry Wine. His running style gives him an outside chance at running into the superfecta, but we believe there are many more talented runners in this race. We also would have expected a little more from him in his first start out of Mark Casse's barn last time, but the trainer switch really didn't seem to move him forward. The prospect of a wet track may present an additional concern, since he didn't appear to handle very wet going as a two-year-old.
#11, Stradivari (10/1): This is the horse that seemingly everyone is hoping will emerge as the primary challenger to Nyquist and Exaggerator. He was visually impressive when running off to a 14-length victory last time at Keeneland and people took notice, with some even conceding the Preakness to him before the Derby had even been run. So can he live up to the hype and prove that he is just as good as the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby? We're doubtful. For one thing, he's never faced a field of this quality. The race rating of his allowance win was a 105, whereas the race rating of the Preakness is a 117. That's a pretty significant leap up in class. Furthermore, he hasn't actually run that fast yet. Due to the relatively moderate pace he was allowed to set, his speed figure did not come back all that fast. The 113 that he earned makes him no faster than horses like Laoban and Abiding Star, who are going to go off at much higher prices. Finally, he's never had to deal with the kind of early speed that he'll encounter in this race and may have to adopt new tactics while trying to come from off the pace. Given all of these obstacles and the inevitable lack of value, we're completely leaving him off our tickets.
While Nyquist (#3) might have the slight edge over the Derby runner-up in terms of raw ability, we believe that EXAGGERATOR (#5) will offer better value given the likelihood of a hotly contested pace and the possibility of a wet track. There should not be that great of a disparity in odds between these two.
Win:
#5, Exaggerator, at odds of 5/2 or higher
Exacta:
5 with 3,6
Trifectas:
3,5 with 3,5 with 1,6,8,9 5 with 1,6,8,9 with 3
5 with 3 with 2,7,10
Superfectas:
3,5 with 3,5 with 1,6,8,9 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 5 with 3 with 2,7,10 with 1,6,8,9
It should come as no surprise that so few Kentucky Derby participants were willing to wheel back in two weeks for the Grade 1, $1.5 million Preakness Stakes, given that this was one of the most formful Derbies in recent memory. Indeed, the first four finishers in the wagering filled out the superfecta in order of their odds, with favored Nyquist coming out on top. Aside from Nyquist and Exaggerator, only ninth-place finisher Lani is making the trip to Baltimore after exiting the Kentucky Derby. The rest of the field has been filled out by new shooters. A few were Derby trail disappointments that did not earn enough points to make it into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Others never had the Derby on their radar and are just now attempting to step up in class, sensing an opportunity here, with so many of the elite three-year- olds deciding to pass this race. Pace was a major factor in the outcome of the Kentucky Derby. The race featured a very fast pace that almost collapsed late, allowing for some closers to make up a significant amount of ground in the stretch. We say “almost” because Nyquist and, to a lesser extent, Gun Runner were the only horses that were able to overcome such taxing early fractions. While the inclination might be to upgrade Nyquist’s performance heading into this race, a very similar scenario could play out once again. There is a lot of speed signed on for this Preakness. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, to be set by the maiden Laoban (#8). Nyquist (#3) heads up the second flight of runners, which also includes Uncle Lino (#2), Collected (#7), and Abiding Star (#9). This would appear to set the table for Exaggerator (#5), as well as for any other late runners looking to crash the superfecta. (For further analysis of the Preakness Pace, read the piece from Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski.)
#1, Cherry Wine (20/1): Following a visually impressive allowance win in January, this colt was given a couple of chances to make the Kentucky Derby. While he did not run badly in either prep, he didn’t quite earn enough points to get into the starting gate at Churchill Downs. Some of the positives with this Dale Romans trainee are that his speed figures are heading in the right direction and his closing running style should be well-suited to a race that is predicted to feature a fast pace. He even handled a sloppy track as a two-year-old, which may very well come into play on Preakness day. The only knock we have against him is that he may just not be good enough. He got favorable paces to close into in both the Rebel and Blue Grass and still found a few others better than he. Most notably, the horses that defeated him in the Blue Grass were no match for Nyquist or Exaggerator in the Kentucky Derby. We’ll primarily use him underneath, on the bottom rungs of the superfecta.
#2, Uncle Lino (30/1): One of four sons of Uncle Mo in this race, he was another runner that did not make the cutoff for the Kentucky Derby. However, unlike Cherry Wine, he got a race in three weeks after his final Derby prep, winning a listed stakes at Los Alamitos. He actually ran fairly well two races back, in the Santa Anita Derby, chasing the fast pace set by Danzing Candy before getting blown away by Exaggerator in the stretch. Still, the 113 and 114 speed figures that he’s earned in his last two starts make him faster than much of this Preakness field. Like Nyquist, he’s a stalker that must avoid getting caught up in what is likely to be a fast pace. He’s worthy of superfecta inclusion.
#3, Nyquist (3/5): The first undefeated Kentucky Derby winner since Smarty Jones will be seeking his ninth consecutive victory while attempting to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown, potentially putting him in position to become the thirteenth Triple Crown winner. There’s no denying that this horse ran the best race in the Derby. He survived a very fast pace, easily put away Gun Runner at the top of the stretch, and held off the late charge of Exaggerator. The effort was good enough to earn him a 123 speed figure, four points higher than Exaggerator’s best lifetime performance, and nearly 10 points higher than what anyone else in this field has accomplished. The beauty of Nyquist is that he’s not only fast, but he’s quite versatile. In last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he was perfectly content to rate about three or four lengths off the pace before unleashing a wide rally to the lead at the top of the stretch. That tractability should serve him well in a race featuring a lot of speed runners, the majority of which are drawn to his outside. Mario Gutierrez will probably have to use him a little bit out of the gate so as to avoid getting a ton of dirt (or mud) kicked back in his face. We also don’t know how the track condition will affect him, since the only time he raced over less-than-fast ground was in his wire-to-wire Florida Derby victory. Yet these are minor concerns at best. This horse has an excellent chance to win the Preakness. The only real question that remains is one of value, since his 3/5 morning line price is slightly lower than we’d be inclined to take, especially given the presence of a legitimate foe in Exaggerator.
#4, Awesome Speed (30/1): He’s an admirable sort, having won four of his six lifetime starts, the last via disqualification when he was legitimately put up over Governor Malibu. That one came back with a strong effort in the Peter Pan at Belmont last weekend, earning a 112 speed figure. That said, Awesome Speed has never recorded a figure above 102 and is highly questionable at this nine and a half furlong distance. He’s not for us.
#5, Exaggerator (3/1): At a time when even the elite three-year-olds are raced so sparingly, it’s refreshing to encounter a horse like Exaggerator, who made his 10th lifetime start in the Kentucky Derby, after having competed in eight straight graded stakes races dating back to August of his two-year-old season. All of that racing has apparently had no ill effects on this son of Curlin, since he’s continued to improve his speed figures with each start as a three-year-old. He entered the Kentucky Derby with the best last-out speed figure of 118 for his blowout win in the Santa Anita Derby. His connections tried something new that day, taking him well off the pace in the early going before launching one sustained run from the back of the pack. It worked wonders that day, and they stuck to that plan in the Kentucky Derby. While he did encounter some traffic trouble around the three-eighths pole at Churchill Downs, Kent Desormeaux did a great job working him out into the clear by the time the field reached the top of the stretch. He unleashed a furious rally, making up many lengths on Nyquist through the final quarter mile, but fell just over a length short. So what’s different today? For one thing, Exaggerator loves a wet track, having run especially well over sealed surfaces in both the Delta Jackpot and Santa Anita Derby. As of Thursday morning, there’s an 80% chance of rain in Baltimore on Saturday. Additionally, Exaggerator is going to get a fast pace to close into once again, and, facing this small field, he is unlikely to encounter the traffic issues that hampered him on Derby Day. Nyquist is undefeated, but he’s not invincible. Value still matters, and if Nyquist is going off at 3/5 while Exaggerator is 3/1, as the morning line suggests, we will be betting the Derby runner-up.
#6, Lani (30/1): Lani was the talk of Louisville heading into the Kentucky Derby, more for his unusual morning antics than about his chances to actually win the race. Considering all that he was up against, Lani's performance in the Derby was fairly respectable. He finished ninth, beating over half the field. After getting away from the gate slowly, he lagged far back in the early going. Yutaka Take guided him outside of horses exiting the backstretch, which resulted in his losing a lot of ground around the far turn as he raced four-to five-wide before getting spun out even farther as he bore out into the stretch. Stamina does not appear to be an issue for this colt, and his plodding style may actually fit with the dynamics of this race. Furthermore, he's handled wet tracks in Japan, so rain should not be a concern, and by all accounts, he's been much better behaved training at Belmont in recent weeks. We doubt he's good enough to actually beat Nyquist or Exaggerator, but Lani is very much in the mix to round out the trifecta in this Preakness, and his price should be generous.
#7, Collected (12/1): This Bob Baffert trainee was steered off the Derby trail after a disappointing fourth place finish in the Southwest earlier this winter. Targeting easier spots, he racked up visually impressive scores at Sunland Park and in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. His connections have had the Preakness in their sights for some time now, and he's done nothing wrong on his way to getting here. However, he's another runner with speed in a race loaded with pace players. Furthermore, he still has some stamina questions to answer, since winning a nine furlong ungraded stakes at Sunland Park is not quite as demanding as competing in one of the major Derby preps. He's far from impossible, but we get the feeling that he and Stradivari are going to be two of the shorter prices in this race despite the fact that they have not run significantly faster than many of the other fringe players. We think there are more interesting horses to use underneath at bigger prices.
#8, Laoban (30/1): While the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be racing on a clear lead in the early going, it is somewhat interesting that his connections are removing the blinkers today. However, even if they're successful in getting Laoban to relax early, there are plenty of other frontrunners that would be more than willing to take up the running and still ensure that this is an honestly run race. Whatever the tactics, this colt is not without a chance in the Preakness. Of the two horses coming out of the Blue Grass, he certainly ran the better race than Cherry Wine. He was sent hard to the lead, laid down quick fractions, and fought off the favorite, Zulu, in upper stretch before getting swallowed up by the closers in the last furlong. A mile and three-sixteenths may be a stretch for him, but others have to answer similar questions. There are others that we find more attractive, but we still wouldn't be surprised to see him still in the hunt as the field turns for home.
#9, Abiding Star (30/1): It isn't wise to underestimate horses that are in great form, especially when their confidence is high. That has to be the case with Abiding Star, who comes into this race riding a five-race winning streak. That said, it wasn't until two starts ago that he took his game to the next level. Facing a decent group of seasoned older runners, this colt basically ran off midway through the race and never looked back, drawing off to an impressive score while earning a 114 speed figure, tied for the fastest race run by any of these runners not named Nyquist or Exaggerator. It seems like a wet track would only better his chances. We wouldn't be surprised if he challenged Laoban for the early lead and could even see him as the one speed that's still trying to fend off Nyquist approaching the quarter pole. Essentially, we think he sports a very similar profile to Stradivari, except he's going to be about three or four times the price of that one. That's good enough for us to throw him into our exotic wagers.
#10, Fellowship (30/1): We put him in the same category as Cherry Wine. His running style gives him an outside chance at running into the superfecta, but we believe there are many more talented runners in this race. We also would have expected a little more from him in his first start out of Mark Casse's barn last time, but the trainer switch really didn't seem to move him forward. The prospect of a wet track may present an additional concern, since he didn't appear to handle very wet going as a two-year-old.
#11, Stradivari (10/1): This is the horse that seemingly everyone is hoping will emerge as the primary challenger to Nyquist and Exaggerator. He was visually impressive when running off to a 14-length victory last time at Keeneland and people took notice, with some even conceding the Preakness to him before the Derby had even been run. So can he live up to the hype and prove that he is just as good as the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby? We're doubtful. For one thing, he's never faced a field of this quality. The race rating of his allowance win was a 105, whereas the race rating of the Preakness is a 117. That's a pretty significant leap up in class. Furthermore, he hasn't actually run that fast yet. Due to the relatively moderate pace he was allowed to set, his speed figure did not come back all that fast. The 113 that he earned makes him no faster than horses like Laoban and Abiding Star, who are going to go off at much higher prices. Finally, he's never had to deal with the kind of early speed that he'll encounter in this race and may have to adopt new tactics while trying to come from off the pace. Given all of these obstacles and the inevitable lack of value, we're completely leaving him off our tickets.
While Nyquist (#3) might have the slight edge over the Derby runner-up in terms of raw ability, we believe that EXAGGERATOR (#5) will offer better value given the likelihood of a hotly contested pace and the possibility of a wet track. There should not be that great of a disparity in odds between these two.
Win:
#5, Exaggerator, at odds of 5/2 or higher
Exacta:
5 with 3,6
Trifectas:
3,5 with 3,5 with 1,6,8,9 5 with 1,6,8,9 with 3
5 with 3 with 2,7,10
Superfectas:
3,5 with 3,5 with 1,6,8,9 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 5 with 3 with 2,7,10 with 1,6,8,9
