Preakness, More like Freakness...

[Griffination]

Hey anyone that has an opinion,


This Saturday I'm going to be attending the Preakness race and was wondering who everyone thought has a shot at getting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. So far I think Barbaro will win it all followed by either Brother Derek or Diabolical. Questions, comments, suggestions?

- Griffin

 

[trytrytry]

id play Brother Derek on top of Barbaro. and brother Derek on top in pic 3's and pic 4's. that is the value Saturday.

 

[TampaLuke]

id play Brother Derek on top of Barbaro. and brother Derek on top in pic 3's and pic 4's. that is the value Saturday.

How much value are you really gonna get with Brother Derek? Two sure things happened in the Derby, Barbaro won and Brother Derek had a really bad trip. Every synopsis of the Derby by every source starts with those two facts. Is it possible that BD will be overbet?

I think if you are looking for real value you probably will have to dig a little deeper. Now that we have some horses running, any misstep by the two top choices is going to produce another lottery style payout. If you are really betting for value you are simply trying to find the once in a lifetime horse that pays a once in a lifetime payout.

I don't think it is a stretch to say Bernadini, Sweetnorthernsaint or maybe another could win even one in eight against this field. Played in the super you will be looking at a monster. And if I don't get it in this one...I still have the rest of my life to hit it.

 

[tiznow]

sweetnorthernsaint should give barbaro a run for his money assuming he gets a clean trip this time. probably unbettable race unless i see 4-1 or more on sweet which i might since i'm guessing barbaro goes off at 1/2 or so...you gonna be on the infield or in the grandstand...been to preakness once it was a blast on the infield trashcans full of beer being toted in and lots of nice viewing ha....anyway was hoping to go this year but didn't pan out have a great time...preakness infield is by far wilder than derby...went to derby this year derby infield seems to be getting increasingly tame unfortunately

 

[trytrytry]

How much value are you really gonna get with Brother Derek? Two sure things happened in the Derby, Barbaro won and Brother Derek had a really bad trip. Every synopsis of the Derby by every source starts with those two facts. Is it possible that BD will be overbet?

I think if you are looking for real value you probably will have to dig a little deeper. Now that we have some horses running, any misstep by the two top choices is going to produce another lottery style payout. If you are really betting for value you are simply trying to find the once in a lifetime horse that pays a once in a lifetime payout.

I don't think it is a stretch to say Bernadini, Sweetnorthernsaint or maybe another could win even one in eight against this field. Played in the super you will be looking at a monster. And if I don't get it in this one...I still have the rest of my life to hit it.

no he will not be overbet he should be 3-1 topps and he will be 5-1 or 6-1 .

 

[charleslanger]

Well then, one could also make the case that SNS is better value at higher odds... or even better, that speed of the speed speedster could hold on over 'the maybe still sealed' track-- at boxcar odds....

There is no value going against a solid favorite with not a single chink in the armor: false faves that come in less than 10% of the time-- are totally different from solid odds-on faves that come in 2/3 of the time... IMHO that's penny-wise & pound-foolish.

 

[TampaLuke]

Well then, one could also make the case that SNS is better value at higher odds... or even better, that speed of the speed speedster could hold on over 'the maybe still sealed' track-- at boxcar odds....

There is no value going against a solid favorite with not a single chink in the armor: false faves that come in less than 10% of the time-- are totally different from solid odds-on faves that come in 2/3 of the time... IMHO that's penny-wise & pound-foolish.

Bullshit man, there is a reason to believe that Barbaro could be caught. Brother Derek being the most obvious. Even though he is well rested, how will he respond to races two weeks apart? If Brother Derek does go off at 3-1 how do you not jump all over that?

This race looked like shit a couple days ago and now I think it is a nice betting opportunity. I am not pretending to be as adept at horses as you guys but I get into this debate with smart guys every year around Triple Crown time. The swollen exotics make it reasonable to bet horses with three legs in these races.

I am on Barbaro's side but he is far from a sure thing, at least far enough to make it right to place a bet against him.

 

[TheRightSide]

I'm on Brother Derek as of now. I had a good hit in the Derby with Barbaro. I knew he was a winner at the half pole. This race is so much different than the derby. Brother Derek at 4-1 is the play. Just like Barbaro at 6-1 which he will never be a gain was the play. Now Brother Derek will be the play in this race.

 

[Masxmenos]

I'm on Brother Derek as of now. I had a good hit in the Derby with Barbaro. I knew he was a winner at the half pole. This race is so much different than the derby. Brother Derek at 4-1 is the play. Just like Barbaro at 6-1 which he will never be a gain was the play. Now Brother Derek will be the play in this race.

You think BrotherD will outdo Barbaro in a field of 9? You did hit on Barbaro, so it wouldn't surprise me if you call this one too. But I still think Barbaro will take it overall IMO.

BDiz..

 

[Griffination]

I guess the safe bets are on Sweetnorthernsaint, Brother Derek, and Barbaro. I never gave Sweetnorthernsaint the time of day until yesterday's drawing of positions. I noticed how SNS really was shafted by the group of 20 and I do think in a race of less than 10, he'll be able to show his true form. Still, Barbaro had to go through the same shit as SNS and he won by 6 1/2 so obviously you'd be a fool if you didn't put some money, not all, but some money on Barbaro. Delaware Valley, what?!

 

[TheRightSide]

You think BrotherD will outdo Barbaro in a field of 9? You did hit on Barbaro, so it wouldn't surprise me if you call this one too. But I still think Barbaro will take it overall IMO.

BDiz..

Yes BD you are right Barbaro will be a tough one to beat. But like I said if Brother Derek gets 4-1 I just have to bet him. The value of that bet is just to much. Barbaro is like betting the yankees in the ML everygame. They will win 75% of time. But in the end it's realy hard to be a good earner at that price. On the other hand the Tigers have been golden this year.

 

[Masxmenos]

Yes BD you are right Barbaro will be a tough one to beat. But like I said if Brother Derek gets 4-1 I just have to bet him. The value of that bet is just to much. Barbaro is like betting the yankees in the ML everygame.

The reason I thought Barbaro could do the preakness is because when you watched the K-Derby, once Barbaro got out of the cluster-fuck, he hauled ass and took it. With less horses in the way at the preakness, I think he will have an easy chance.

Brother Derek I totally agree with you on. You can't count him out either.

They will win 75% of time. But in the end it's realy hard to be a good earner at that price. On the other hand the Tigers have been golden this year.

LOL! The tigers were a dog pick last night and the covered for me. Dunno why they were a dog pick at home doing the way they have been but don't tell pinnaclesports that

Good luck on your horses brother!

Bdiz..

 

[charleslanger]

Sorry, don't see any value in playing against a horse that finishes in 24-1½...you don't see this in short routes, let alone at a classic distance--& you can't even say he hugged the rail, was alone early...& to boot not even that he was pushed unduly late: meaning he could even be capable of better!

So for some such bet to have any semblance of value, one'd need a contender who can finish in 22 & change, as Barbaro will likely run faster if pushed late by someone...AND....NOT be the second or third betting choice-- swallowing 5/2 - 3 on BD means one believes if this race is run 100 times, he wins close to ½ those times(for meaningful profit)...

I'd much rather take a flyer on a bomb horse-- and hope for rider tactics / mishaps to carry the day...or pass the race.