VaultedTreehouse
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I believe the board needs this so I will supply.
1. Malibu Moonshine- Not much to like here to be honest. The Tesio as a prep has consistenly been a poor prep for the Preakness. Only Magic Weisner a few years ago made a dent and he had much more competitive figures to back him up in that race. Trained by Mid-Atlantic Legend King Leatherbury, this horse will be coming from the clouds if at all. Rail draw is a plus. Slow horse is a minus. Pass
2. High Fly- The new wiseguy horse is upon us. In the Derby, it was Noble Causeway who got the underground press. It's reverted back to this horse who ran a credible race before folding in the Derby. Cutback of a sixteenth of a mile is a plus. Bailey stays eroding your price further. He could very well be 4-1 in this race which is a distinct underlay. He was a good, not great, horse in Florida and to me has always had the look of a top notch miler with 9 furlongs being a top. I will play against him in this spot.
3. Noble Causeway- The wiseguy horse for the Derby is back with little of the same fanfare. There are a couple of keys here. First, he was checked badly at the beginning of the race and didn't run a lick. Second, trying to win the Derby off a 5 week rest was a mistake by Zito for both High Fly and Noble Causeway. Third, this horse has always had a two-turn look to him. I loved his Florida Derby but I tended to shy away from him when he became the wiseguy horse on Derby week. Heard he was a little ouchy that week from some people at the rail. His work since inspires some confidence, especially the way he came home. When everyone gets off the bandwagon, its time to get on. Expect a big showing.
4. Greely's Galaxy- By far the most intriguing horse in the Preakness. His Derby was sneaky good as he encountered trouble at more than a few spots and was hopelessly wide the entire way. We're talking 8 or 9 paths wide, not 2 or 3. He's come back with 2 quick works both in the slop. Stute is a great trainer regarless of his fossil age, and this horse will surely represent some value at odds of 15-1 or better. Probably worth a saver and a must in exotics.
5. Scrappy T- His last race was good in the Withers although that was around one turn. His two turn races inspire little confidence. He is also a horse who likes to press the pace a bit. There is more than enough speed in here to burn him out. Strictly a longshot regardless of a big last race figure.
6. Hal's Image- This horse has won 2 out of 16 against inferior competition. He is by a spinter miler sire in a race filled with speed. He will give you a thrill for half a mile, and then stop on a dime.
7. Closing Argument- The other press horse this week and deservedly so. His Derby was quite good being near a pace where the rest of the horses around him collapsed and he kept going. Good maintenance work at Belmont this week adds to the appeal. Tactical speed and a middle post are pluses as well. Can't fault anyone for looking in this direction although my gut says he ran his best race in the Derby and will regress enough to put him out of the money. More a gut reaction than anything else. Fire away here if you please.
8. Galloping Grocer- Last year's Funny Cide at 2 has not progressed at all for Schettino who is 2 for 61 this year with increased testing in NY. Very difficult to make a case for with a lot of speed on board. Two works since the Withers look pretty good. Bravo aboard doesn't hurt. Deman value here. You will get it I assume, but 40-1 would barely put him on my radar screen.
9. Wilko- A soft spot here for him as I cashed for 3 gs on him in the Breeders Cup last year. Dollase says all the right things with him and his progression. Has had some foot problems which have claimed to clear up over the past month. Ran just Ok in the Derby. Don't think he needed the race so an excuse is needed. He will close and may pick up a piece. 3 out of 15 doesn't inspire and I'm not sure he likes to win. Stirctly underneath as anything under 10-1 on him is an underlay in my opinion.
10. Sun King- Yes the horse who who has progressively gone backwards in his last 3 starts. If he ran back to his first start this year at Gulfstream he would be right in the thick of this for sure. Bejarano picks up the mount and maybe he'll be closer to the pace than his last two. He might have to send from the 10 hole. If you play him you will get value at anything over 18-1, but I can't endorse him for anything on top. If he beats me so be it, but I think a midpack finish is in the cards.
11. High Limit- He will be sent and blinkers have been added. Trying to rate this horse didn't work and getting rattled at the start didn't help. Frankel shows confidence after finishing last in the Derby. Thought there might be an injury here but it turns out that he just plain stunk that day. I think he runs a much better race than last time. That being said, is that really hard to do. You'll get a price with Frankel and Prado addition a plus. Using underneath if at all.
12. Afleet Alex- The horse that everyone apparently was rooting for in the Derby. Only horse who took money who actually ran well at 4-1. And who hasn't seen the story of the little girl with cancer who started the lemonade stand and passed away. Donations from this horse's winnings have followed. Very touching but we are gambling here and all the press the story gets has made him a sentimental choice which hurts your price entirely...Let's be objective here. He is a talented horse who has still got red flags for me. First, I don't like the addition of front wraps that was made with every start this year. Unless its a trainer who always uses them, it is not a plus. I have seen horses run well with the wraps and then suddenly disintegrate. He has run 3 out of 4 big with them. I will wholeheartedly play against him with this draw and his stalker style. HE will be ass wide on the first turn and you will get 5-2 on this horse and I can't accept that. In fact I him throwing him out of all the top spots. I think he regresses. Putting my neck out a bit here, but my gut absolutely tells me he runs poorly here. I will be playing against him in matchups and odds.
13. Giacomo- Yes I was shocked at his Derby. No I wasn't shocked that a 50-1 won the race. In fact I played Andromeda's Hero to win the race at 53-1. He ran ok and passed horses to finish 8th I believe next to favorite Bellamy Road. Now on to Giacomo. His trip was terrific in the Derby and he closed into an insane pace. I won't knock him like everyone else will. Sheriffs is a clean trainer and it is no surprise to me that with a super drug test in place, an ultra clean trainer's horse jumped up and won. I think the post really hurts here but he will be able to drop back and make a run. There is pace, not as much as in the Derby but enough to make him useful. Don't think he'll win but I think he has a 60% chance to hit the board so I will use him underneath for sure. Smith also riding with extreme confidence right now. Using.
14. Going Wild- All together now. THROW-OUT. He has lost by 29, 16, and 41 lengths in his last 3. If Lukas had less of an ego he would put this horse in a claiming race right now where he belongs. He will surely push the pace and will probably be in front as they make there was into the first turn. If he wins, I will be beyond shocked.
To Recap, my plays will be as follows.
1. Noble Causeway
2. Greely's Galaxy
3. Giacomo
4. Wilko
I will box the trifecta and super. I will be betting Noble Causeway in matchups especially against High Fly which is available at Pinny. Exacta box for a decent penny. WPS for Noble and Greely's. A show bet on Giacomo and a small saver bet on Wilko Place and Show.
Good Luck to all and I hope this was informative. Vaulted.
1. Malibu Moonshine- Not much to like here to be honest. The Tesio as a prep has consistenly been a poor prep for the Preakness. Only Magic Weisner a few years ago made a dent and he had much more competitive figures to back him up in that race. Trained by Mid-Atlantic Legend King Leatherbury, this horse will be coming from the clouds if at all. Rail draw is a plus. Slow horse is a minus. Pass
2. High Fly- The new wiseguy horse is upon us. In the Derby, it was Noble Causeway who got the underground press. It's reverted back to this horse who ran a credible race before folding in the Derby. Cutback of a sixteenth of a mile is a plus. Bailey stays eroding your price further. He could very well be 4-1 in this race which is a distinct underlay. He was a good, not great, horse in Florida and to me has always had the look of a top notch miler with 9 furlongs being a top. I will play against him in this spot.
3. Noble Causeway- The wiseguy horse for the Derby is back with little of the same fanfare. There are a couple of keys here. First, he was checked badly at the beginning of the race and didn't run a lick. Second, trying to win the Derby off a 5 week rest was a mistake by Zito for both High Fly and Noble Causeway. Third, this horse has always had a two-turn look to him. I loved his Florida Derby but I tended to shy away from him when he became the wiseguy horse on Derby week. Heard he was a little ouchy that week from some people at the rail. His work since inspires some confidence, especially the way he came home. When everyone gets off the bandwagon, its time to get on. Expect a big showing.
4. Greely's Galaxy- By far the most intriguing horse in the Preakness. His Derby was sneaky good as he encountered trouble at more than a few spots and was hopelessly wide the entire way. We're talking 8 or 9 paths wide, not 2 or 3. He's come back with 2 quick works both in the slop. Stute is a great trainer regarless of his fossil age, and this horse will surely represent some value at odds of 15-1 or better. Probably worth a saver and a must in exotics.
5. Scrappy T- His last race was good in the Withers although that was around one turn. His two turn races inspire little confidence. He is also a horse who likes to press the pace a bit. There is more than enough speed in here to burn him out. Strictly a longshot regardless of a big last race figure.
6. Hal's Image- This horse has won 2 out of 16 against inferior competition. He is by a spinter miler sire in a race filled with speed. He will give you a thrill for half a mile, and then stop on a dime.
7. Closing Argument- The other press horse this week and deservedly so. His Derby was quite good being near a pace where the rest of the horses around him collapsed and he kept going. Good maintenance work at Belmont this week adds to the appeal. Tactical speed and a middle post are pluses as well. Can't fault anyone for looking in this direction although my gut says he ran his best race in the Derby and will regress enough to put him out of the money. More a gut reaction than anything else. Fire away here if you please.
8. Galloping Grocer- Last year's Funny Cide at 2 has not progressed at all for Schettino who is 2 for 61 this year with increased testing in NY. Very difficult to make a case for with a lot of speed on board. Two works since the Withers look pretty good. Bravo aboard doesn't hurt. Deman value here. You will get it I assume, but 40-1 would barely put him on my radar screen.
9. Wilko- A soft spot here for him as I cashed for 3 gs on him in the Breeders Cup last year. Dollase says all the right things with him and his progression. Has had some foot problems which have claimed to clear up over the past month. Ran just Ok in the Derby. Don't think he needed the race so an excuse is needed. He will close and may pick up a piece. 3 out of 15 doesn't inspire and I'm not sure he likes to win. Stirctly underneath as anything under 10-1 on him is an underlay in my opinion.
10. Sun King- Yes the horse who who has progressively gone backwards in his last 3 starts. If he ran back to his first start this year at Gulfstream he would be right in the thick of this for sure. Bejarano picks up the mount and maybe he'll be closer to the pace than his last two. He might have to send from the 10 hole. If you play him you will get value at anything over 18-1, but I can't endorse him for anything on top. If he beats me so be it, but I think a midpack finish is in the cards.
11. High Limit- He will be sent and blinkers have been added. Trying to rate this horse didn't work and getting rattled at the start didn't help. Frankel shows confidence after finishing last in the Derby. Thought there might be an injury here but it turns out that he just plain stunk that day. I think he runs a much better race than last time. That being said, is that really hard to do. You'll get a price with Frankel and Prado addition a plus. Using underneath if at all.
12. Afleet Alex- The horse that everyone apparently was rooting for in the Derby. Only horse who took money who actually ran well at 4-1. And who hasn't seen the story of the little girl with cancer who started the lemonade stand and passed away. Donations from this horse's winnings have followed. Very touching but we are gambling here and all the press the story gets has made him a sentimental choice which hurts your price entirely...Let's be objective here. He is a talented horse who has still got red flags for me. First, I don't like the addition of front wraps that was made with every start this year. Unless its a trainer who always uses them, it is not a plus. I have seen horses run well with the wraps and then suddenly disintegrate. He has run 3 out of 4 big with them. I will wholeheartedly play against him with this draw and his stalker style. HE will be ass wide on the first turn and you will get 5-2 on this horse and I can't accept that. In fact I him throwing him out of all the top spots. I think he regresses. Putting my neck out a bit here, but my gut absolutely tells me he runs poorly here. I will be playing against him in matchups and odds.
13. Giacomo- Yes I was shocked at his Derby. No I wasn't shocked that a 50-1 won the race. In fact I played Andromeda's Hero to win the race at 53-1. He ran ok and passed horses to finish 8th I believe next to favorite Bellamy Road. Now on to Giacomo. His trip was terrific in the Derby and he closed into an insane pace. I won't knock him like everyone else will. Sheriffs is a clean trainer and it is no surprise to me that with a super drug test in place, an ultra clean trainer's horse jumped up and won. I think the post really hurts here but he will be able to drop back and make a run. There is pace, not as much as in the Derby but enough to make him useful. Don't think he'll win but I think he has a 60% chance to hit the board so I will use him underneath for sure. Smith also riding with extreme confidence right now. Using.
14. Going Wild- All together now. THROW-OUT. He has lost by 29, 16, and 41 lengths in his last 3. If Lukas had less of an ego he would put this horse in a claiming race right now where he belongs. He will surely push the pace and will probably be in front as they make there was into the first turn. If he wins, I will be beyond shocked.
To Recap, my plays will be as follows.
1. Noble Causeway
2. Greely's Galaxy
3. Giacomo
4. Wilko
I will box the trifecta and super. I will be betting Noble Causeway in matchups especially against High Fly which is available at Pinny. Exacta box for a decent penny. WPS for Noble and Greely's. A show bet on Giacomo and a small saver bet on Wilko Place and Show.
Good Luck to all and I hope this was informative. Vaulted.
