My Handicapping is primarily based on line moves and public perception. I sprinkle a little power rating into the mix to see where the line is off and consider how the line is being bet in relation. This is my 5[SUP]th[/SUP] year in the Super contest; I have had 43 points 40.5 points, 48 points and 46 last year. My goal is at least 55 or 3.25 wins per week.
WEEK ONE INFO:
70% of early (Wed AM) public money has gone 1-7 last 4 years
The Public is 22-35 in week one the last 4 years
When the public bets the Fav up they are 8-17
The top 5 Super contest plays are 3.5-11 the last 3 years
Divisional Dogs are 17-8 in week one last 4 years – 4-0 LY
My 5 plays:
St Louis +4 – Turns out this was a top 3 play in SC but the Rams are a tough out at home, & Fisher is great division Dog. Seattle has to travel to GBAY next week, Rams keep this close Line should be around 8.
Chic +6.5 – I try not to bet on Bad teams during the season but the at the start everyone has a chance to win the SB. Another Divisional Dog here, Green Bay has Seattle up next.
New Orleans +2.5 – This is my Best Bet of the week – I quite like the cardinals I like Bruce Arians that fabulous ATS record he accumulated was as a PUP. The Cardinals should be -7 home favs here, but yet they are yielding less than FG – Arizona’s Oline looked terrible in Preseason and Carson did not look share as result. If you can defend the long ball vs. Arizona you have a shot. This could be a 17-16 type game
Washington +3.5 – Strictly a go against the MIAMI hype machine and the Public’s perception of Washington being a bad organization.
Buffalo +2.5 – Rex’s debut at Ralph Wilson – Andrew Luck may have a good day but I believe Defense is ahead of offence at this time of year – and when the better defense is the home team give me the points.
GL GUYS
WEEK ONE INFO:
70% of early (Wed AM) public money has gone 1-7 last 4 years
The Public is 22-35 in week one the last 4 years
When the public bets the Fav up they are 8-17
The top 5 Super contest plays are 3.5-11 the last 3 years
Divisional Dogs are 17-8 in week one last 4 years – 4-0 LY
My 5 plays:
St Louis +4 – Turns out this was a top 3 play in SC but the Rams are a tough out at home, & Fisher is great division Dog. Seattle has to travel to GBAY next week, Rams keep this close Line should be around 8.
Chic +6.5 – I try not to bet on Bad teams during the season but the at the start everyone has a chance to win the SB. Another Divisional Dog here, Green Bay has Seattle up next.
New Orleans +2.5 – This is my Best Bet of the week – I quite like the cardinals I like Bruce Arians that fabulous ATS record he accumulated was as a PUP. The Cardinals should be -7 home favs here, but yet they are yielding less than FG – Arizona’s Oline looked terrible in Preseason and Carson did not look share as result. If you can defend the long ball vs. Arizona you have a shot. This could be a 17-16 type game
Washington +3.5 – Strictly a go against the MIAMI hype machine and the Public’s perception of Washington being a bad organization.
Buffalo +2.5 – Rex’s debut at Ralph Wilson – Andrew Luck may have a good day but I believe Defense is ahead of offence at this time of year – and when the better defense is the home team give me the points.
GL GUYS
