PoliticoPundit MLB Angle Thread #2

[barman]

Creating this thread as a sequel to the so-far rather healthy PP MLB Angle thread started by Scott L, title-hijacked by Bar and gravy training in the back of the limo - Punter.

With (so far) special guest appearances from BASEHEAD (2-0 in Totals) and RoadReeler (some good info links posted).

I invite those involved in Thread #1 to tally up the results of your posted selections/parlays and post them at the end of that thread. I'll then transpose them into this here thread in Post #2 below.

I also suggest that for more convenient comparisons between individuals we continue with using a base unit of "1.0" and multiples thereof, rather than doing like I did early in Thread #1 where I was using some imaginary $$ numbers.

 

[barman]

THREAD #1 posted records

SCOTT L 23-33 (-11.60)

BAR 31-21 (+15.40)

PUNTER +24.99

HEAD 2-0 (+2.00)



(will fill in later via the miracle of the Mod Editing Super Powers)

 

[barman]

FRIDAY, July 24

Overnight bite

3TeamParlay

"Streakin' Teams"

PHIL -136 vs StL
HOU +112 vs NYM
COL -115 vs SF

Lay 1.0
Pays 5.88
==========

 

[ScottL]

Why am I here at 2:45 AM? Could YOU sleep if you had the Twins? I started 10-6 and haven't been heard from since. Yeah I wish! 23-33, -11.2 Units....I am humbled. But I am not broke. And I will never be broken! Until Later....

 

[punter]

7/24

parlay: Cubs, 1H Mets $2 to win $3.80


ytd +$24.99

 

[BASEHEAD]

I posted the Under in the Det game in the other thread sorry,I just noticed.


(EDIT...inserting Head's post from this morning that was placed in other Thread)

--------------
Pretty dry day yesterday.

Angle of the day: White Sox/Tigers combined 11-1 to the Under L11 double header openers.

Chicago
Under is 4-0 in Contreras' last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 6-0 in Contreras' last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Contreras' last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
Under is 4-0 in Contreras' last 4 starts as an underdog.
Under is 7-1 in Contreras' last 8 starts overall.
Under is 7-1 in Contreras' last 8 starts on grass.
Under is 7-1 in Contreras' last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.

Detroit
Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Tigers last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 vs. American League Central.
Under is 9-3 in Tigers last 12 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 home games.
Under is 14-6 in Tigers last 20 games as a home favorite.
Under is 7-3 in Tigers last 10 games as a favorite.
Under is 35-16-1 in Tigers last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 37-17 in Tigers last 54 on grass. Under is 39-18 in Tigers last 57 overall.
Under is 13-6-1 in Tigers last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 35-17 in Tigers last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-0 in Verlanders last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Verlanders last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Verlanders last 5 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Under is 6-2 in Verlanders last 8 home starts.

H 2 H
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 5-1 in Verlanders last 6 starts vs. White Sox.
Under is 41-20-4 in the last 65 meetings in Detroit.

The under looks like such an obvious pick here but I think the rest of the criteria warrants it.

CWS has historically gotten the better of Verlander (7-2 L9)

Contreras' numbers look a little scary but hes not pitched that badly over his last 6 or so.He did get banged up last time out vs Baltimore.I think hes comes out today ready to pitch tho.My one worry is that the Tigers just rip him up but Detroit, even with their solid RPG # have been a little quiet with bats lately giving him a chance to bounce back.Verlander is going to be Verlander,especially at home (ridiculous home era of 1.34 (6-0)).CWS have been hittin but think Verlander gets it done at home.If the Sox can pull it out Im thinking like a 3-2 game.Last time these two faced these respective teams (not each other) each only allowed 1ER...Verlander complete game,Contreras 8 ip.Hopefully more of the same.

Under 8.5 Det/CWS

GLTA

 

[punter]

Basey you are mr automatic w/your picks. Thanks for todays I now have a freeroll at my parlay.

 

[ScottL]

Friday:

METS -135 -- Astros 0-8 this year starting a new series off 2+ wins and 0-9 home with Hampton facing anyone other than Pit. Mets suck but when Santana starts they change their Evil Ways. He's not allowed an ER in 15 innings.

MILW +115 -- ATL is 5-17 since 5-13-07 on the road if they are 4-1 or 5-0 in their previous 5 games. MIL went 2-4 in its last Homestand. After a losing Homestand MIL is 28-11 in ALL GAMES of their next Homestand since 8/07 so I'll be looking to play on them or pass for the next several games.

BOS -165 Since 6/4/03 BOS is 22-4 entering a game 1-5 or 0-6 in its last 6. This will be the only game vs BAL with a reasonable price this series.

MIN +140 -- Out of anger and for no other reason.

CLE +115 --Pitching edge + SEA in Home Series Game #1 is 15-2 to REVERSE their previous result.

 

[barman]

Mets suck but when Santana starts they change their Evil Ways. .

I SAW IT....solid

 

[barman]

I also flubbed and posted in Thread #1...will catch us all up during this evening and then Close that thread

======
2TeamParlays

SD/WAS Over 9 (-105)
STL/PHI Undah 9 (+105)

Lay 1.0
Pays 3.1

RAY +138 at Jay
BRAVE -123 at Brew

Lay 1.5
Pays 4.97

*Matt Garza with six starts against Toronto in past seven ML months. 45 IP, 3ER

Including last season, Rays have won five of seven games vs Halladay

*Brewers playing After Scoring 6+ are 4-9 in past 13 chances. Vazquez strikeout punch should mow them down solid.

 

[barman]

July 24 summary

3-4 (+2.97)
--------------------

 

[BASEHEAD]

Tampa Bay
Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games following a win.
Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 games as a road underdog.
Under is 7-0 in Rays last 7 games as an underdog.
Under is 8-1 in Rays last 9 vs. American League East.
Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 7-2 in Rays last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 17-5 in Rays last 22 overall.
Under is 20-6 in Rays last 26 on grass.
Under is 20-6 in Rays last 26 road games.
Under is 16-5-1 in Rays last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 14-5-1 in Rays last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 7-3 in Rays last 10 during game 2 of a series.

Toronto
Under is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 4-0-2 in Blue Jays last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 4-0-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 10-1-2 in Blue Jays last 13 home games.
Under is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games following a loss.
Under is 6-1-1 in Blue Jays last 8 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1-1 in Blue Jays last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-1-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a home favorite.
Under is 5-1-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-2-1 in Blue Jays last 10 Saturday games.
Under is 10-3 in Blue Jays last 13 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 16-5-2 in Blue Jays last 23 overall.
Under is 16-5-1 in Blue Jays last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 23-8 in Blue Jays last 31 vs. American League East.
Under is 6-1 in Tallets last 7 starts vs. American League East.
Under is 8-3 in Tallets last 11 starts on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Tallets last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 5-2 in Tallets last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record

Head to head
Under is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings in Toronto.
Under is 29-11 in the last 40 meetings.

Ump
Under is 7-2-1 in Emmels last 10 games behind home plate.

Jays and Rays both hitting .219 over their last 10. It wont be the pitchers that save us today,although these two teams may make them look a little better than they really are.

Teams both avg less than 1 HR per game over this span.

Also last ten.....
Rays- 3.4 avg RPG for / 4.3 against
Jays- 3.4 avg RPG / 3.2 against

TB/Tor Under 9

GLTA

 

[barman]

SATURDAY, July 25

Happy **th Birthday to the LongSuffering but MuchLoved SheBar

3TeamParlays

PHI -129
HOU -135
TEX -105

Lay 1.1
Pays 5.5

SEA -177
ARZ -141
TEX Undah 9 (-103)

Lay 1.1
Pays 4.65

Straight

TB Undah 9 (-115) 1.2

hat tip to HEAD for that last Total play

 

[ScottL]

Meet the new thread, same as the old thread.....

2-3, -1.2 Eunichs

SAT:

UNDER 9-105 hou vs mets

MILW -125

AZ -140

SEA -175

BOS -220

Adding more chalk to my slate until Dogs get off life support. Faves are on a ridiculous roll the last 20 days, especially -155 or higher. I won't even post how skewed it is; check it for yourselves.

A few Angles -- ATL is 2-23 on the Road off a Road Win by 4+ Runs. The Homestand Angle on MIL from yesterday still in effect.

BOS is 26-3, including 15 in a row at Home vs BAL in Game #2 or later of the Series. BOS is now 23-4 in the stat I posted yesterday, still in effect.

SEA is 18-3 the last 21 games that Bedard, King Felix, or Washburn pitched.

 

[punter]

7/25 ytd +22.99

Parlay: Yanks -1.5, Ray under 9(tks bshd), Redsox $4 to win $13.88

Parlay: Yanks -1.5, Mariners, Redsox $4 to win $11.04

 

[punter]

add:

parlay: Tigers 1H, Mariners, Redsox $2 to win $5.56

parlay: Astros, Mariners, Redsox $3 to win $9.06

 

[barman]

Been out all day at Clearwater Beach and on a sunset cruise (yep....I'm Gay on my wife's B-Day)

I see most of us got force fed a sandwich of weak Seamen in Seattle

Me? Taking Sunday off and regrouping on Monday

 

[BASEHEAD]

Extra inning asskicking for me yesterday.

Going right back to BJays Under 9 today.

And also taking my Red Sox Under 10.

Baltimore
Under is 7-0-1 in Orioles last 8 vs. American League East.
Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 overall.
Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 on grass.
Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 road games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Orioles last 7 games following a loss.
Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.
Under is 6-2-1 in Orioles last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-0-1 in Hernandezs last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1-1 in Hernandezs last 6 starts overall.
Under is 4-1-1 in Hernandezs last 6 starts on grass.

Red Sox
Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0-1 in Red Sox last 5 vs. American League East.
Under is 6-0-1 in Red Sox last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 5-0-1 in Red Sox last 6 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0-1 in Red Sox last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 9-1-1 in Red Sox last 11 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
Under is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 12-2-1 in Red Sox last 15 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Under is 10-3-3 in Red Sox last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 16-5-3 in Red Sox last 24 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 6-2-1 in Red Sox last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 20-7-4 in Red Sox last 31 home games.
Under is 19-7-4 in Red Sox last 30 games as a home favorite.
Under is 16-6-1 in Red Sox last 23 Sunday games.
Under is 5-2-1 in Red Sox last 8 games following a win.
Under is 25-10-5 in Red Sox last 40 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 40-17-5 in Red Sox last 62 overall.

Umpire
Under is 5-0-1 in Wests last 6 games behind home plate vs. Boston
Under is 5-1 in Wests last 6 games behind home plate vs. Baltimore
Under is 5-2 in Wests last 7 games behind home plate

Im not much of a contrarian. I tend to go with the flow and it doesnt always work out.Smoltzs numbers look really bad but Ive watched him pitch,he hasnt been as bad as thoise stats lead.He just isnt adjusting to his inability to be the old Smoltz.While hes been spotty,hes had some really decent stuff.So far this year he hasnt given up a HR at Fenway and twice as many ERs have been scored against him on the road in just a few more road innings.Plus the weather will be not so good,perhaps rain in the later innings.Its muggy and really oppressive humidity.

Hernandez has been great as of late.Last three starts hes let up 1,2,3 ERs respectively all on the road vs NYY,SEA and LAA respectively.Thats not too shabby.

GLTA

PS-To anyone who took Und in Toronto thanks to me-sorry.At least it was over early and didnt string us along torturously.

 

[ScottL]

Yeah Bar, looks like we got a wounder arm in Bedard yesterday. He should have been scratched. 3-2, +.2 Units yesterday. Thread 6-6, -1.0 Units.

Sunday:

PHI -155

MIL +105

CIN +205

UNDER 9-120 tor vs tbay

BOS -175 [Jazz only]

KC +135

 

[ScottL]

A coupla Trends....

Phils 18-3 last 21 of Game 3 or 4 of Series if off Win.

Reds are 10-2 on the Road since 9/04 when on a 5 Game or longer losing streak. First time this year in this spot. Harden's ERA is above 7 at Home. Even with the worst manager in MLB I have to take the +205 today.