TUESDAY, Sep 8
Following for 1.0 exposure each
TEX Gm2 - Under 9
Rangers Away vs LH starters are now at over 80% to the Under and A Laffey is certainly suitable to continue this pressure
PHI/WAS Under 9
Phillies past 24 Away are 4-18-2 vs "9"
PIT -102
Cubs just 3-11 in Dempster's 14 road starts this season and just 9-17 playing Away After an AwayWin
KC +154 and Under 9.5
Tigers past 11 road games vs LH starters have mustered just 29 combined runs and a 4-7 record.
Tigers After winning two consecutive Away games by 2+ runs are 0-4 this season and 4-10 since early 2008
Tigers After a RoadWin this season have seen over 90% to the Under
(my spreadsheet not open, thus the lack of precise numbers in above % mentions)
CHW -141
Oakland is still just 3-11 After any Win, though their Sunday win did follow a win on Saturday
Oakland also under 15% in Game1s Away this season
2TeamParlay
CHW -1.5 (+135)
NYY -1.5 (+125)
Pays 4.3x1
Chisox due to Oakland AfterWin results mentioned above and Yanks due to Rays being simply gassed. Oh, Price has a 6.75 road ERA this year and in his one previous start at The Stadium last month, the Rays won....though it was 9-7. Hard to see that happening again given the current limp attitudes of TB lineup.
Following for 1.0 exposure each
TEX Gm2 - Under 9
Rangers Away vs LH starters are now at over 80% to the Under and A Laffey is certainly suitable to continue this pressure
PHI/WAS Under 9
Phillies past 24 Away are 4-18-2 vs "9"
PIT -102
Cubs just 3-11 in Dempster's 14 road starts this season and just 9-17 playing Away After an AwayWin
KC +154 and Under 9.5
Tigers past 11 road games vs LH starters have mustered just 29 combined runs and a 4-7 record.
Tigers After winning two consecutive Away games by 2+ runs are 0-4 this season and 4-10 since early 2008
Tigers After a RoadWin this season have seen over 90% to the Under
(my spreadsheet not open, thus the lack of precise numbers in above % mentions)
CHW -141
Oakland is still just 3-11 After any Win, though their Sunday win did follow a win on Saturday
Oakland also under 15% in Game1s Away this season
2TeamParlay
CHW -1.5 (+135)
NYY -1.5 (+125)
Pays 4.3x1
Chisox due to Oakland AfterWin results mentioned above and Yanks due to Rays being simply gassed. Oh, Price has a 6.75 road ERA this year and in his one previous start at The Stadium last month, the Rays won....though it was 9-7. Hard to see that happening again given the current limp attitudes of TB lineup.
Guys, NO JOKE! The average NCAAF Total this coming week will close 3 points lower than it opens. Obviously this post is only good for credit players. But I will whack the UNDER on every number I can get at the Opener above 57 and buy them all back on Saturday.
I will explain further as the Season goes on as it takes me 2-3 weeks to isolate the Conferences BW and his crews are betting OVERS and UNDERS in, and I hit them with great accuracy before they do. EX: Last year if you bet OVER on a Thursday in ACC or SEC Games where the O/U was 40 or less you ended up with a 2-4 point Middle opportunity come Kickoff on Saturday. In the Big 12 conversely, the Totals dropped. On Oct 9th last year I hit the UNDER 71 Nebraska at Texas. On the 11th the game was played. The Game sat at 69 until a few hours before Kickoff. BAM, BW's crew whacked the UNDER as I thought they would based on history. The Game closed 66.5. The Final was 37-31
I will explain further as the Season goes on as it takes me 2-3 weeks to isolate the Conferences BW and his crews are betting OVERS and UNDERS in, and I hit them with great accuracy before they do. EX: Last year if you bet OVER on a Thursday in ACC or SEC Games where the O/U was 40 or less you ended up with a 2-4 point Middle opportunity come Kickoff on Saturday. In the Big 12 conversely, the Totals dropped. On Oct 9th last year I hit the UNDER 71 Nebraska at Texas. On the 11th the game was played. The Game sat at 69 until a few hours before Kickoff. BAM, BW's crew whacked the UNDER as I thought they would based on history. The Game closed 66.5. The Final was 37-31
going to be looking hard at playing the pitt/buffalo side and total....teams who win SU as DD dogs in week 1 are a perfect 5-0 ATS if playing as an underdog in week 2 the past few years....right now looking at a play on buffalo and the under, but want to dig a little deeper before committing....
Went 2-3 last night as I got stung badly with AZ + MIL. Doesn't matter as I couldn't post because I was scrambling as unexpectedly the NCAAF Totals all got posted as it was time to start betting the Bases last night. I didn't even get to take any leads this week. Heck, I might have to look at some OVERS in these high 30s low 40s Games.
Last night I was going to post the Jays -105. Here is the Angle. In Romero's last 18 starts the Jays are 10-1 vs Non AL East Teams and 0-7 in the Division, including last night's Win.
For this afternoon I'm noting the Cubs are 0-13 on the Road after scoring 7+ on the Road. But I can't stomach SHITTSburgh anymore.
I'll take SF -1.5 200/240 as SD's last 17 Losses were by at least 2 Runs.
For this afternoon I'm noting the Cubs are 0-13 on the Road after scoring 7+ on the Road. But I can't stomach SHITTSburgh anymore.
I'll take SF -1.5 200/240 as SD's last 17 Losses were by at least 2 Runs.
BOS has now won 13 straight and 20 out of 22 after last night when Home off a Road Loss. They are also now 21-0 in their first TWO Games of a Homestand that follows a Road Loss. And 26-4 at Home vs Balt AFTER Game #1 of the Series. The O's are 23-59 all Road Games AFTER Game #1 of a Road Series.
ML or RL is a decision I'll have to make later.
ML or RL is a decision I'll have to make later.
I just had a call from a guy trying to sell me games. He went right into script as soon as I picked up, fake broadcaster's voice and everything. I thought it was a tape. When he got done he said, "This is Big John. Are you still there?" I said, "this isn't a tape?" He said, "No, this is Big John," and started an alternate spiel while I laughed loud and long before hanging up.
Additional Stats:
HOU 2-10 off 'WWL" if scored 0-1 Runs.
DET has swept 3 Road Series since 9/07 and then remained on the Road....TO BE SWEPT THEMSELVES. That's 0-10 in all Road Games AFTER sweeping a 3+ Game Rd Srs. Forgot to mention last night they were 1-11 [now 1-12] Game #1 of Rs Srs off Rd Win.
CSOX have yet to open a Hm Srs 0-2 this year, and are 22-0 to avoid opening 0-2 in Hm Srs. OAK is 0-12 Rd since 4-29-08 if off 'WW' and scored 6+ last. OAK is 10-36 the first 3 Road Games off a Homestand, including W last night.
SEA 10-2 off Road Game and scored 0-2. ANA doesn't sweep Hm Srs unless playing KC so they should L tonight or tomorrow.
HOU 2-10 off 'WWL" if scored 0-1 Runs.
DET has swept 3 Road Series since 9/07 and then remained on the Road....TO BE SWEPT THEMSELVES. That's 0-10 in all Road Games AFTER sweeping a 3+ Game Rd Srs. Forgot to mention last night they were 1-11 [now 1-12] Game #1 of Rs Srs off Rd Win.
CSOX have yet to open a Hm Srs 0-2 this year, and are 22-0 to avoid opening 0-2 in Hm Srs. OAK is 0-12 Rd since 4-29-08 if off 'WW' and scored 6+ last. OAK is 10-36 the first 3 Road Games off a Homestand, including W last night.
SEA 10-2 off Road Game and scored 0-2. ANA doesn't sweep Hm Srs unless playing KC so they should L tonight or tomorrow.
Well Scott, glad to see my overnight Email exacta of CHW and TB Under 10 came through....Got me my first ++ night since last Thursday.
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Moving ahead to THUR, Sep 10
Seattle playing After a Loss still holds some appeal, but Angels are super solid in Game 3s (27-14 and 15-5 when it's AfteraWin)...so we'll take the passerino here...hope the M's lose again and then grab them on Friday when they start a series at Texas (Rangers 5-6 in first Home game Off Road)
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KC +148, KC +1.5 (-115) KC Under 9.5 (-115)
Royals are 6-9 past Home vs divisional rivals and 9-6 (+1.5)
But we're mainly building here based on Tigers' profile
DET 2009 Away vs Central Division
12-13
6-19 (-1.5)
Include the last six road vs ALCentral in 2008 (0-6, 0-6) and they're 12-19 SU and 6-25 (-1.5)
DET since May 7 when playing Away vs LHP
7-10
1-16 (-1.5)
4-13 vs "9.5"
Tigers in the above 17 games have scored just 57 runs (3.4 rpg) Chop off the two highest scoring of those 17 and in the remaining 15 they avg just 2.6 rpg
Jarrod Washburn has made ten road starts this season for SEA and DET - two very similarly constructed teams....only 2 have finished Over the PostedTotal
Lenny Dinardo makes his first ML start since April (with Oakland) ,but at AAA Omaha this season he was 10-5 with a 3.32 era.
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I'm going to parlay the +148 and Under 9.5 (-115) for a 1.0 risk
Playing the +1.5 (-115) for a 1.5 risk
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Moving ahead to THUR, Sep 10
Seattle playing After a Loss still holds some appeal, but Angels are super solid in Game 3s (27-14 and 15-5 when it's AfteraWin)...so we'll take the passerino here...hope the M's lose again and then grab them on Friday when they start a series at Texas (Rangers 5-6 in first Home game Off Road)
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KC +148, KC +1.5 (-115) KC Under 9.5 (-115)
Royals are 6-9 past Home vs divisional rivals and 9-6 (+1.5)
But we're mainly building here based on Tigers' profile
DET 2009 Away vs Central Division
12-13
6-19 (-1.5)
Include the last six road vs ALCentral in 2008 (0-6, 0-6) and they're 12-19 SU and 6-25 (-1.5)
DET since May 7 when playing Away vs LHP
7-10
1-16 (-1.5)
4-13 vs "9.5"
Tigers in the above 17 games have scored just 57 runs (3.4 rpg) Chop off the two highest scoring of those 17 and in the remaining 15 they avg just 2.6 rpg
Jarrod Washburn has made ten road starts this season for SEA and DET - two very similarly constructed teams....only 2 have finished Over the PostedTotal
Lenny Dinardo makes his first ML start since April (with Oakland) ,but at AAA Omaha this season he was 10-5 with a 3.32 era.
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I'm going to parlay the +148 and Under 9.5 (-115) for a 1.0 risk
Playing the +1.5 (-115) for a 1.5 risk
I thought Lenny Dinardo was working as an usher at a movie theatre. Bar how is it you get all the info! Scouts in Omaha?
All kidding aside, made $370 to start another Winning Thread -- Optimism Abounds! Be back later with my night card. For now, KC WIT DA BROOMS! Reasons stated above:
DET has swept 3 Road Series since 9/07 and then remained on the Road....TO BE SWEPT THEMSELVES. That's 0-11 in all Road Games AFTER sweeping a 3+ Game Rd Srs.
KC 200/300
Not touching Total. Too low for these two butchers throwing today.
All kidding aside, made $370 to start another Winning Thread -- Optimism Abounds! Be back later with my night card. For now, KC WIT DA BROOMS! Reasons stated above:
DET has swept 3 Road Series since 9/07 and then remained on the Road....TO BE SWEPT THEMSELVES. That's 0-11 in all Road Games AFTER sweeping a 3+ Game Rd Srs.
KC 200/300
Not touching Total. Too low for these two butchers throwing today.
Woosie
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Only other selection for me on Thursday is MIN/TOR Under 9 (-110)
Spreadsheet closed, but Twins have seen well over 85% of their AfterRoadWins finish Under the PostedTotal.
2TP with TEN/PIT 1Q Under 7 (-135)
1.0 risk
Off to lawn/garden...Looking forward to the busy Fri-Mon stretch
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Only other selection for me on Thursday is MIN/TOR Under 9 (-110)
Spreadsheet closed, but Twins have seen well over 85% of their AfterRoadWins finish Under the PostedTotal.
2TP with TEN/PIT 1Q Under 7 (-135)
1.0 risk
Off to lawn/garden...Looking forward to the busy Fri-Mon stretch
Under 9.5 Philly (-110) 1.0 U
Philly has been a road favorite of -140 or more in every game exc 1 (-110) during thier last two road trips (13 games).They currently are 9-3 to the under in those games.The scores of these games dont reflect the big lines the Phils have got either...often just squeaking them out by a run or two.They just cant seem to get to the number.
9.5 is higher than the number generally has been during this stretch.
Ill take it.
Also Pitt (NFL) -6 1.0U
Its hard to resist the SB champ opening day ATS record....or the Super Bowl loser for that matter.Cross that bridge when we get to it.
Glta.
Philly has been a road favorite of -140 or more in every game exc 1 (-110) during thier last two road trips (13 games).They currently are 9-3 to the under in those games.The scores of these games dont reflect the big lines the Phils have got either...often just squeaking them out by a run or two.They just cant seem to get to the number.
9.5 is higher than the number generally has been during this stretch.
Ill take it.
Also Pitt (NFL) -6 1.0U
Its hard to resist the SB champ opening day ATS record....or the Super Bowl loser for that matter.Cross that bridge when we get to it.
Glta.
