Point Differentials and Key Numbers

[trendsats]

Using data going back to 2005 I’ve found that 14.34% of games are decided by 3 points, 8.95% of games are decided by 7 points, and 6.18% of games are decided by 6 points.

Here is the link to the data page on a site that I started: https://trendsagainstthespread.com/spread-data/key-numbers/

My question is: How closely do you guys pay attention to line movement across these numbers when spread betting? Do you think it is significantly more meaningful than line movement across less common point differentials? I think it is very important but wanted to get some feedback.

 

[LuckysBoy]

I would think 4 would be more of a key # than 6? Whats your data show?Personally i believe it is hugh in sportsbetting to have plenty of outs.Never a good idea to take a bad number.I find in general less is more.Meaning playing fewer games and if you miss the line you wanted, to just pass the game.Easier said than done, as i play more than my share of coin flip games.In my mind it is definitely more important around key numbers.As your data shows the scores end up around these #s a lot.Even more important to pass a game if the line moves against you on the key #s.Nobody ever lost money passing a game.

 

[G-Man!]

More importantly what were the closing lines on the 3 point games?
That would be a significant factor.

 

[Juggler]

Using data going back to 2005 I’ve found that 14.34% of games are decided by 3 points, 8.95% of games are decided by 7 points, and 6.18% of games are decided by 6 points.

Here is the link to the data page on a site that I started: https://trendsagainstthespread.com/spread-data/key-numbers/

My question is: How closely do you guys pay attention to line movement across these numbers when spread betting? Do you think it is significantly more meaningful than line movement across less common point differentials? I think it is very important but wanted to get some feedback.

Excellent post. I wonder if the # 3 is as important now as it was before the NFL moved back the extra point try after a touchdown?

 

[MLB]

It would be interesting to see how the numbers fall the last 20 years on games that closed at 3.