Plays

[gamerecognizegame]

Going to start posting and tracking my plays and see if I can't post some winners and share and exchange some knowledge with the rest of this great rx cbb community that I love to read. Been doing pretty good this year and hopefully I have some value to add. College hoops is the sport I like to bet most and I have been following it very closely for many years now. It can be very tricky because of all the games and all the variables involved ( travel, schedule, road, rival, revenge, etc...) but there also can be some good spots if you know where to look. I enjoy it.


YTD 0-0

Ball St +3. 3u
I really like this Ball St club. They can shoot it well, they are unselfish and share the ball and they play solid defense. They struggle vs teams that pressure the ball and are aggressive on defense but should be able to execute their offense vs a BG defense that is solid but doesn't gamble under Mike Huger. I also think BG can struggle to score in the halfcourt which is where BSU forces you to play. Zack Denny is a legit shooter but the rest of the BG team are more slashers than pure scorers. I think BG will need to get to the line a lot to win. That is a possibility and my one major concern with this play but will take my chances getting 3.

Ball St un 136 3u
BSU guards very well and are patient on offense. Both these teams get back on defense and don't allow much in transition. BSU is one of the more reliable defenses in the MAC. They make you work to get a good look and both teams rebound the ball well defensively. I think we see a slow game with a lot of defensive rebounding. Like this one.
Akron +2 1u

Toledo -6.5. 2u
Toledo 1h -3.5 2u
Rider/Manh un 131. 1u
Va Tech + 10. 2u
Wake +2. 1u

Going to try and post more writeups/blurbs when I am not on my phone. Might add a play or two and I do play some 2halfs once in a while.

 

[indiana]

Game........good luck with your plays tonight..........indy

 

[gamerecognizegame]

Okay just to add some quick thoughts now that I have more time.

Akron
I think this Akron team is one of the more talented teams in the country and a ridiculous amount of talent for a mid major. They are strong at every position with plus players. They have two point guards on the floor for most of the game in Robotham and ultra quick Antino Jackson. Big Dog Isiah Johnson is a load inside and defensively they deny the 3ball very well which is a big part of Ohio's offense. Akron also has Mcadams and Kretzer who are lights out shooters that you can't leave which creates openings for Jackson and Robotham who are both very skilled and capable of cutting up opposing defenses. Coach Dambrot says he thinks his club is playing the best ball of the year right now. I think Akron is one of the toughest teams to guard in the country and Ohio has defensive issues and lapses aplenty. All that said, this is a rivalry game on the road so anything can happen. Not a great spot for Akron but I like the way they are playing. I think they can get whatever they want on offense.

Toledo
I think highly of Toledo coach Tod Kowalczyk. They have lost three in a row and should be motivated to give a good effort tonight. I think the scheme favors them as well playing WMU. They were harassed by Buffalo's tough, long, athletic, and rangy perimeter and interior players last game but it should be a different story tonight vs a WMU defense that is very soft and likes to sag off the perimeter and frankly is not that good. Toledo can shoot the 3ball and they can also score inside via point forward Nathan Boothe who is an excellent passer for a big man. Defensively Toledo is a major work in progress but they tend to give up the 3 point shot and clog up the lane. I think that plays to their advantage tonight vs a WMU team that likes to drive to the hoop with Thomas Wilder and they don't shoot the ball all that well from outside. WMU has looked better of late but that can tend to happen when playing at home. Tonight they go on the road and face a talented skilled offensive team that should be hungry for a win.

Rider/Manhattan
Both of these teams operate very slowly on offense and don't have a lot of weapons to score with. Manhattan is notorious for its full court press which should turnover Rider at times but when it doesn't i think we see both teams slow it down in the halfcourt and struggle to score while taking a lot of time searching for a shot. There is always a risk of Manhattan turning the game into a frenzy but i have seen enough of them this year to where I feel content that they are in no hurry on offense.

Va Tech - Buzz Williams has done a very nice job attacking Syracuse's famous zone. He knows how to get good looks and how to gameplan for it and he has the personnel to beat it. He has the 3 point shooters and he has guys that can move the ball around. They lost two very close games to Syracuse last year (both by two points with a much inferior Tech team) and I believe they will remember that tonight. I will even put a little bit on the moneyline in this one as I think Tech has a shot at pulling the upset. I see too much value in 10 points to pass that up.

Wake
Wake is a team that I like and think they are undervalued. I was hoping to get a couple more points on this line but I am still going to play it. Wake can score in bunches, particularly at home, and stretch the defense with shooter Mitoglous and score inside with Devin Thomas. Miller Mcintyre is a good solid point guard. Most of all though I think very highly of Wake coach Danny Manning. Clemson can struggle to score at times and if thats the case at all tonight I can see them losing this one. Wake has issues defensively and vs elite offensive teams they are easily exploited. Clemson, while better than previous years, can still struggle to score. I don't think Clemson can exploit Wake's defensive issues well enough and Wake hasn't had trouble scoring on almost any defense while at home. I'll take the two points.

Ball State +3 3u
Ball State un 136 3u
Ball State un 63 1h 2u
Akron +2 1u
Rider/Manhattan un 131 1u
Va Tech +10 2u
Va Tech ML +420 .5u
Wake Forest +2 2u (adding 1 unit to the Wake play)

 

[gamerecognizegame]

Forgot to put Toledo in the last post.

Ball State +3 3u
Ball State un 136 3u
Ball State un 63 1h 2u
Akron +2 1u
Rider/Manhattan un 131 1u
Va Tech +10 2u
Va Tech ML +420 .5u
Wake Forest +2 2u (adding 1 unit to the Wake play)
Toledo -6.5 2u
Toledo -3.5 1h 2u

 

[gamerecognizegame]

Game........good luck with your plays tonight..........indy

Thanks Indy! You too.

 

[tnvolfan]

I'm with ya on Akron good luck tonight

 

[gamerecognizegame]

I'm with ya on Akron good luck tonight

Cash it! Big win for your Vols too. Looked like they might get run out of the building midway thru the 1H but they pulled out a huge one. Rick Barnes getting a lot out of that roster.

 

[gamerecognizegame]

6-2-1 on sides
0-1 on ML play as Va Tech couldn't hang on much to my frustration. Syracuse never led in the game until overtime but made some impressive 3's down the stretch in regulation to get it to overtime.
Overall +6.1 Units

I really liked yesterdays card. I really don't like today's card.

I have a lean towards Evansville. If i can get a better number i might play it. There are a few more games I am looking at and will report back. I might sit this day out if I don't find anything I like.

GL

 

[memphis]

boom. wtg! nicely done. gluck tonight if you play

m e m p h y

 

[gamerecognizegame]

Thanks Memphis

Going to sit this one out so far

Might tail you on Oklahoma State or play the under on the side but no posted plays. BOL

 

[gamerecognizegame]

Going to go ahead and play these now as I like them as it is and am not sure which way the line is going to move.

6-3 +6.10 u

Wright State -1.5 2u
Vandy -1 2u
William and Mary -1 2u

There are few other plays that i will likely add and will try to write a few lines on why i like some of my plays if I have time.

 

[indiana]

Game...........nicely done YTD..........continued success with tonight's card.............indy

 

[gamerecognizegame]

Thanks Indy.. BOL to you too.

adding
Oregon State +2.5 2u
Tulsa +2 1u

 

[memphis]

woof woof doggie time



THE ORIGINALS - MEMPHIS & REAL DEE COSTEN

 

[United]

Nice work and good luck GRG

 

[MUFDIVR]

Good luck to you

 

[gamerecognizegame]

Wright State
Milwaukee is an experienced team but they have a slow frontcourt defensively with Arians, Tiby, and Panoske. Its hard for these guys to stay in front of teams that feature quickness on the wings and perimeter. Wright State plays a four guard lineup and sometimes even a 5 guard lineup with wing JT Yoho playing the center position. They typically have 4 guys who can shoot and drive on the court at all times. This is a nightmare to guard for Milwaukee especially because WSU offense is based on driving and dishing. WSU PG Joe Thomasson is lighting quick and they have some good penetrators in Alstork and Biggie Minnis. Benzinger is one of the best shooters i have seen in the country. I just don't think Milwaukee can do a good enough job on the road defensively without some kind of major adjustment (which is possible). On the other side of the ball Milwaukee does have a very nice offense with 5'9 PG Jordan Johnson controlling the show. He is tough to guard and a good decision maker. They will not be easy to stop but WSU coach Billy Donlon prides himself on defense rather then offense and typically he comes with a solid gameplan. Wright State is coming home after two road losses and should be hungry and focused. This should be a good one and I am thinking of also playing the over as I think each offense will be able to execute in this one. Only concern for the over is the tempo these teams play at.

Will and Mary
I really like this WM team. They are experienced, athletic, fundamentally sound and well coached. Northeastern plays a defense which pressures on the perimeter and that can play right into WM hands as they like to use backdoor cuts to score. One major factor for this play is the health of do everything Northeastern star Quincy Ford. No word on if he is playing although I won't be surprised if he plays. This is a tricky spot for WMU. NE has lost 4 in a row and they are a very solid team in their own right and should be desperate for a win. I simply think WM is that much better then Northeastern. This really should be a 1 unit play for me and not a 2 unit play because of the spot and I am thinking about buying out 1 unit. Its a tough road spot for WM after a huge come from behind home win vs JMU. I think the matchup favors WM in a major way and that is the only reason I am playing it. NE should give it their all tonight with or without Quincy Ford.

Vandy
Vandy before the year started was slated to be one of the best teams in the country this year. They returned a lot of great players with 1 more year experience. The injury to Luke Kornet kind of threw off their timing but I still think they are a much better team then they are being given credit for and undervalued. TAM is a team that will let you shoot the 3ball and that is something Vandy loves to do. One area of concern for me is the offensive rebounding of TAM vs the tall yet slim frountcourt of Vandy. With guys like Tyler Davis, and Tonny Trocha Morelos, if Vandy doesn't do a good job on the glass they could be exploited. All in all this is a spot where we should get about a good of effort as Vanderbilt can muster on their homecourt. For a team as talented as Vandy I have to take that in this spot with the short number.

Tulsa
I am really impressed with this Tulsa team. They are one of the most experienced teams in the country and play very well as a team. They are lighting quick on the perimeter and they play hard as heck on defense. It will be a tough task going into Temple and winning but I simply think Tulsa has the more skilled and experienced players that have played with each other for four years and have an aim to make the tournament. Temple can be sloppy at times and undisciplined with bad shots while Tulsa is a very mature team. Matchup wise I think it will be tough for both teams to score on the other but the quickness and first step burst of some of these Tulsa guards is vicious so I will take the points here.

Oregon State
I think Utah is a little overrated. They lost Delon Wright from last year and he did so many things for that team. Jakob Poetl is a very good player but he goes up against a team that loves to pack the paint tonight with a unique zone. This is a revenge spot for Oregon State, who i think is undervalued, where they get to play on their home court vs a team, in Utah, that can struggle to score at times.

 

[gamerecognizegame]

adding

Northern Kentucky +3.5 2u
also adding 1 unit to wright state (3 total)
Milw/WSU ov 136 1u

Card:
Wright State -1.5 3u
Milw/WSU ov 136 1u
Northern Kentucky + 3.5 2u
Vandy -1 2u
Will and Mary -1 2u
Tulsa +2 1u
Oregon State +2.5 2u

 

[gamerecognizegame]

adding
byu pk -120 1u
byu 1h -.5 1u
usc 1h -3 1u

might be a couple more

 

[gamerecognizegame]

6-4 +1.30 on the day

12-7 +7.40 units overall.

Overall a winning day, BUT, a couple games that I lost really stung. Wright State led by double digits the majority of the game and by 6 with 35 seconds to go but found a way to squander it in extremely frustrating fashion. Watching the final 30 seconds took a lot out of me. They still won but I lost. They managed to win by 1, while I had -1.5 (of course), after dominating the entire game and losing their minds trying to close the game out. That one stung as I really liked that play and played it pretty big. Maybe I should have played some on the moneyline but not sure its profitable to lay that kind of juice in the long run. That finish happened right after the Tulsa meltdown and I let quite a few F bombs fly at the top of my lungs.

Anyways, enough bitching about that. Thats how it goes in CBB, with college kids closing games out, and hopefully it should even out in the long run and some will go my way. I thought I got semi lucky with the OSU play for what its worth. I wish it didn't happen to the Wright State play though ;-). That was a big swing for me and ruined what couldve been a nice day. I'll still take a winning day and shouldn't complain. Moving on...

For 2/5
Harvard +9.5 1u
Niagara +4 1u (might add to this)